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Colton's 2014 Mock Draft Compilation, v. 1.0

colton

colton

All Around Nice Guy
Contributor
Welcome to Colton's 2014 Mock Draft Compilation, v. 1.0. Here are who the mock drafts are listing as the "best players". See below for details. It should give a pretty good idea of who will be available when the Jazz pick at 5, 23 and 35. I'll try to do this at least once more before the draft.

1 Andrew Wiggins
2 Jabari Parker
3 Dante Exum
4 Joel Embid
5 Marcus Smart
6 Noah Vonleh
7 Julius Randle
8 Aaron Gordon
9 Doug McDermott
10 Nik Stauskas
11 Dario Saric
12 Gary Harris
13 Adreian Payne
14 Rodney Hood
15 James Young
16 Zach LaVine
17 Elfrid Payton
18 T.J. Warren
19 Tyler Ennis
20 Kyle Anderson
21 Jusuf Nurkic
22 Clint Capela
22 Shabazz Napier
24 P.J. Hairston
25 Jerami Grant
26 K.J. McDaniels
27 Cleanthony Early
28 Jordan Clarkson
29 Glenn Robinson III
30 Jordan Adams
31 Mitch McGary
32 Jarnell Stokes
33 C.J. Wilcox
34 Patric Young
35 Walter Taveres
36 Bogdan Bogdanovic

Misc observations:

1. 8 of the 11 mock drafts have us taking Vonleh at #5. 2 have us picking Randle, and only 1 have us picking Gordon.

2. The best player who might be available at #23 seems to be James Young (2 mocks have him available then). More reasonable might be Kyle Anderson (5 mocks have him available then).

3. The best player who might be available at #35 seems to be Kyle Anderson (2 mocks have him available then). More reasonable might be Jordan Clarkson, Glen Robinson III, and Jordan Adams (4, 4, and 5 mocks say they'll be available, respectively).

4. 4 of the 11 mocks think Embid will still be on the board at #5, and none of those 4 think the Jazz will pick him.

5. No one has Embid falling past #6.

6. Zach LeVine wins the wild card award, with his projections being anywhere from #7 to #27.


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Ranking details: I used the following mock drafts as "voters" for the best players. That is, I assumed they ranked the players in the order that they felt like the players deserved to be drafted. (This is an incorrect assumption, because some mock drafts account for perceived team need, but it should be close.) Then I used the "instant run-off voting" algorithm in a program I wrote to deduce who deserved to be ranked in the top spot, then in the second spot, then in the third spot, and so forth. See here for details on that algorithm: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting

Mock drafts used:
https://www.hoopsaddict.com/random/nba-draft/2014-nba-mock-draft/ Jun 22
https://bleacherreport.com/articles...014-solid-selections-for-every-1st-round-team Jun 22
https://www.sheridanhoops.com/category/draft/ Jun 21
https://www.sportingnews.com/nba/st...-wiggins-jabari-parker-joel-embiid-cavs-76ers Jun 21
https://walterfootball.com/nbadraft2014mock.php Jun 20
https://www.nbadraft.net/2014mock_draft Jun 20
https://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2014/ Jun 20
https://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2014-nba-mock-draft.html Jun 20
https://www.insidehoops.com/nba-mock-draft.shtml Jun 20
https://msn.foxsports.com/ohio/story/nba-mock-draft-jabari-parker-andrew-wiggins-joel-embiid-062014 Jun 20
https://www.nbadraftinsider.com/2014-nba-draft-prospects/2014-nba-mock-draft/ Jun 19



If there are mocks you'd like me to include next time, please let me know. And if anyone wants to PM me Chad Ford's most recent mock, I'll include that as well.*

*edit: got it now, at least the Jun 19 version.
 
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my "complements" for a job well done.
enjoyed reading it.

add on: Embid will fall. I think, even at 23rd he might be available.
 
Christ will come down on a flying pig before Embiid falls out of the top 10.
 
I look forward to Colton's compilation every year. This years is exciting because there are players I like available at 23 and 35.


Colton, have you ever tracked the accuracy of the compilation compared to the actual draft results?
 
mellow said:
Colton, have you ever tracked the accuracy of the compilation compared to the actual draft results?
Click to expand...

I've done that at least once. It was not super accurate, but more accurate than many of the individual mock drafts. And not as accurate as the most accurate of the mocks.
 
All Signs point to Noah Vonleh. :cool:

also well done on Walter Taveras @35 he has DeAndre Jordan type upside in the 2nd round, a major diamond in the rough candidate. He also hasnt missed a game in 2 seasons.

1000081_598339730207020_2005429326_n.jpg
 
mellow said:
Oh, so your model is just average.
Click to expand...

A bit above average, I'd say. But not as far above average as I had hoped.

But that's only the data for a single year. Really I'd need to do the analysis every year for a while to get better statistics.
 
colton said:
*spelling causes colton's head to explode*

(and yes, I realize you probably did that deliberately)
Click to expand...

I no how two spell.

I think you need a vacation. You seem like your stressed out. Go out with you're family and half a good time. I wood hit up San Diego. Theirs a beach they're and there very friendly.
 
Great work @Colton. I like the fact that you used only the most recent mock drafts.
I made a compilation myself too. It includes Chad Ford's 8.1 too but lacks some of your mock drafts. I am dying to find out what you think of this site: nbadraft.dahoops.com
 
jjscap said:
Great work @Colton. I like the fact that you used only the most recent mock drafts.
I made a compilation myself too. It includes Chad Ford's 8.1 too but lacks some of your mock drafts. I am dying to find out what you think of this site: nbadraft.dahoops.com
Click to expand...

Cool! I haven't seen another compilation that comprehensive. Did you write some scripts to pull the numbers off of the mock draft websites? Or how does yours work? I'm ashamed to admit that I just entered numbers manually into a spreadsheet.

Also, a problem I see with yours is that where a player isn't ranked, that doesn't affect the average. That artificially makes the player ranked more highly than he should be. A non-ranking should be a negative thing, not a neutral thing. That's one of the best parts of the instant run-off voting that I use... it can handle that situation very naturally. I set all of the non-ranked players in a given poll to be a "61", so they are all tied and all lower than the lowest ranked player in the poll. (Since it just compares relative ranks, there's no difference between voting for three players by indicating 1, 2, 3, and by indicating 1, 2, 61.)
 
Hey Colton,

Please don't mind my spelling and grammar mistakes, English is not my first language :)
Well yes, I wrote a script with Pyton's Beautiful Soup to scrape the data from the mock draft pages. While this is the long-term solution that makes things automatic, I had just a few days to put the whole thing together. And these websites are usually coded terribly, are a bit tricky to scrape. Also I had to add some extra mock drafts suddenly, the clock was ticking. So for now, it is half script, half manual. But for the 2015 draft it'll be full automatic collecting the data from about 25 mock drafts and running some math on its own.

Unranked players gave me some headache. The problem is some analysts did not publish their second round picks. Then I first thought about calculating the averages assuming an unranked player is picked #35 if he is not in the top 30, which would be pretty close to his actual ranking if they published the 2nd round. Then I can't just show 35 in the sortable column of the respective mock draft. This is ugly. Besides ignoring is not that bad if you think about it. I mean my player made the top-30 and usually has something like 17,21,24,20,22... then unranked. so 31 as you say, or 35. This particular mock draft is misbehaving a bit, don't you think? There are statistical models that eliminate black sheep in such cases. I did just that. Well in the end I simply decided to revisit this matter another time.

In your original post you mentioned IRV which seems to take care of this problem elegantly. There is even a Python script doing just that, might help solve unranked players problem.
 
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