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Random, in a beach side bar in Jersey a 90's Jazz jersey with Covid on the back. I'd wear it.


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"Dunn recommends moving the entire state back to the orange phase if Utah does not reach a rolling 7-day average of 200 cases per day by July 1, which is next week."

There's no frigging way we're going that far down in the next week. I predict that going back to orange is inevitable.

Can we please just get our **** together? This is embarrassing and we have ourselves to blame.
 
Avery said:
"Dunn recommends moving the entire state back to the orange phase if Utah does not reach a rolling 7-day average of 200 cases per day by July 1, which is next week."

There's no frigging way we're going that far down in the next week. I predict that going back to orange is inevitable.

Can we please just get our **** together? This is embarrassing and we have ourselves to blame.
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Where’s our leadership? My take is that herbert isn’t a leader and is afraid of backlash and thus ostracizing himself from the Republican club. And Cox is afraid to take a stand out of fear of losing the primary.

We have zero leadership at the state level. The doctor’s memo was pretty strong yesterday. Will she be ignored?

memo:
19 June 2020

UDOH Epi COVID Brief

Overview:

We are in the acceleration phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Utah. We went yellow on May 15. Our surge in cases started on May 27, 12 days after going yellow. Utahns care about these colors. They change their actions based on them. They are the key messaging tool to the public.

All of our goals are aligned - keep the economy open and prevent deaths/ illnesses. We are quickly getting to a point where the only viable option to manage spread and deaths will be a complete shutdown. This might be our last chance for course correction. Contact tracing and testing alone will not control this outbreak.

Today, we reported nearly 600 cases and that's without a known outbreak of driving transmission.

It's over 3.5 times the current rate in Colorado.

COVID-19 patients in the Utah hospitals have increased from a steady 90 to 150 this month, and this increase is from the cases that were identified over a week ago.

IHC is reporting they will run out of conventional ICU capacity in some hospitals in July.

Of the cases, about 8 percent will be hospitalized one to two weeks later and about 1% will die after about three weeks. If trends hold, at the current weekly average of 405 cases/day:

This means around 213 people will be hospitalized per week.

Of those 213, about 85 will be previously healthy working age people. "Low risk" - taken from their family and work to fight for their lives in an isolated hospital room.

About 17 of the 213 will die - another 11 will die at home or in nursing homes. On average, per week, and it's growing at a rate of 25% a week.

Things we can do now to start to decrease cases and keep the economy open:

If we do not reach a rolling 7-day average of 200/cases per day by July 1, we need to move the entire state to orange. This will send the message to Utahns that this outbreak continues to be a serious problem, and state leadership is committed to saving lives and preventing a complete economic shutdown.

200 new cases / day can likely be managed by aggressive contact tracing, focused outbreak investigations and testing, and pointed public messaging.

We should start messaging this to the public and businesses now.

Put a pause on any jurisdiction lessening restrictions until July 1.

Mandate face coverings, either by government or business enforcement.

If above isn’t reasonable, we need to be clear with public about why decisions are being made lessening restrictions – economic, not health. Be clear about health risk. Be clear about how these decisions are made and who makes them. This will better equip the public to make informed decisions about how to protect themselves and their health.

Below are the key aspects of our response, followed by a data summary:

Contact Tracing

Contact tracing is a key element to controlling an infectious disease outbreak. However, it becomes less effective as the number of contacts per case increases, and as the public perceives lower risk and does not adhere to quarantine recommendations. Since going to yellow, we have increased our number of contacts/case from approximately 5 to over 20. For contact tracing to be effective as a tool to stopping the spread of COVID-19, it needs to be paired with polices that limit the number of close contacts per person. We are exceeding our capacity to effectively and efficiently conduct contact tracing due to the surge in cases and number of contacts per case.

Testing

We need to continue our ability to test everyone who needs a COVID-19 test: close contacts, symptomatic, high risk settings. We must prioritize testing for people who are sick or are part of outbreaks. Speed is critical in identifying these people and baseline testing distracts public health and testing resources.

Hospital Utilization

We have heard from the UHA, UofU, and IHC that hospitals are going to exceed their capacity to care for individuals within the next 4-8 weeks. The metrics on DOMO are only part of the hospital capacity. We must consider staffing, ECMO, and beds for severe cases. Focusing on tertiary care hospitals is crucial. Once we run out of beds at tertiary care hospitals on the Wasatch Front, there is no state ability to care for the critically ill. Maintaining the ability to stand up the alternate care facility will be essential as cases continue to increase.

Protect those at high risk for severe disease

High risk individuals get COVID-19 from low risk individuals. The higher the number of cases in our state, the more likely high risk individuals will get exposed to COVID-19. We must continue our efforts to specifically protect those at high risk for severe disease, while prioritizing policies and interventions that drive down overall transmission.

Protect those at high risk for transmission

We know certain environments are more conducive to COVID-19 spread: crowded, indoors, for a prolonged period of time. We must continue to work with employers in these environments to put procedures in place and engineer the workspace to limit spread. We also need to work with employers to ensure their employees have the ability to quarantine and isolate when needed through paid sick leave and worker protections.

Messaging/Communications

The public equates the color-coded phased guidelines with risk of COVID-19 spread. We must be clear that the color equates with the economic restrictions in place. And that the risk of COVID-19 spread is higher as the restrictions are lower.
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Gameface said:
So no one has explained to him how stupid that statement is yet? Or maybe they have and he still thinks it is brilliant logic?
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good question. At this point hasn’t he fired anyone who’ll stand up to him?

and even if Kelly, Mattis, etc were still there, would he listen to them? He doesn’t seem to listen to anybody. Whether it be tariffs, Russia and North Korea, or testing. He stupid and incurious and unmanageable.

It’s amazing how he doesn’t understand how dumb that makes him. Even the most brainwashed Trump supporter understands that his statement makes no sense. Just because you slow down testing doesn’t mean that the actual infection is slowing down.

Is it just me or has isolating himself with friendly media and yes men caused him to now even be disconnected from His base? That Tulsa rally was the first time I noticed this. But he doesn’t seem to have much of a connection right now to a country (including his base) that is suffering from pandemic, 15+ percent unemployment, and problems with race relations.
 
The Thriller said:
good question. At this point hasn’t he fired anyone who’ll stand up to him?

and even if Kelly, Mattis, etc were still there, would he listen to them? He doesn’t seem to listen to anybody. Whether it be tariffs, Russia and North Korea, or testing. He stupid and incurious and unmanageable.

It’s amazing how he doesn’t understand how dumb that makes him. Even the most brainwashed Trump supporter understands that his statement makes no sense. Just because you slow down testing doesn’t mean that the actual infection is slowing down.

Is it just me or has isolating himself with friendly media and yes men caused him to now even be disconnected from His base? That Tulsa rally was the first time I noticed this. But he doesn’t seem to have much of a connection right now to a country (including his base) that is suffering from pandemic, 15+ percent unemployment, and problems with race relations.
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I think Bannon was the brains that won the last election for Trump. He understands the base he delivered to Trump.
 
Gameface said:
I think Bannon was the brains that won the last election for Trump. He understands the base he delivered to Trump.
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Agreed. The question then needs to be asked, has the base shrunk and has the resistance grown to the point where it doesn’t matter who runs his campaign?

Since no one in the GOP has ethics, to what lengths do they go to win? Encourage Russia and the Chinese to intervene? Shut down polling places? Throw away mail-in ballots? Claim the election was illegitimate? Hire someone to physically harm Biden? Seriously, there’s no bottom for these creeps. As November draws nearer, I think Trumpworld will become increasingly desperate.
 
Herbert came out today and said he's not supportive of shutting down the economy, but appreciative of the concern.

"Dr. Dunn’s internal memo raises alarm about the increasing COVID-19 cases in Utah. I appreciate her analysis and share many of her concerns. We will work to stem this tide, but I have no plans to shut down Utah’s economy," Herbert's tweet stated. "I urge Utahns to protect themselves and their loved ones from the spread of the virus by following our common sense guidelines for social distancing, good hand hygiene and especially the use of face coverings."

Shutting things down and reducing cases don't have to be intrinsically linked. You can still keep the economy going but limit large groups, mandate mask use, etc.

Most people that I've seen complain about Covid still being an issue take zero steps themselves to actually do anything about it. They touch everything in stores, don't stay six feet back, don't wear masks, etc. They are the reason we're having these issues.
 
5513D3EA-64F6-4530-B397-4496C2C8EAF7.jpeg
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6925e2.htm?s_cid=mm6925e2_w

I think this highlights a few issues. One is that we’re starting to see more normal hospital census numbers return, with an underlying panic that it’s COVID causing those increases (well, I guess it is, indirectly, but not the way we’re thinking it is). Another issue is that if you’re seeing those volumes decreasing, you’re going to see some level of decreased in-hospital mortality. Obviously presenting to a hospital introduces a selection bias that tends to select for higher stratification of severity (generally), so you can’t simply apply the odds on paper to out-of-hospital cases, but if you’re looking at it simplistically, there are about 1.5M heart attacks and strokes per year, and 800,000 people dying from cardiovascular disease per year, that would put your 3 month reduction in hospital volume as having 40k people dying outside the hospital (assuming equally distributed severity) for heart disease alone (let alone other causes of mortality). Obviously higher severity will lead to increased chance of hospitalization (skewing that simplistic estimate), but it would also skew the populations that didn’t seek out treatment and increase their mortality rates. The question I’m getting at, not necessarily suggesting but thinking it’s worth discussion, is how many people didn’t seek treatment and resulted in out-of-hospital mortality that’s otherwise unexplained, and perhaps attributed to COVID.
 
infection said:
View attachment 9489
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6925e2.htm?s_cid=mm6925e2_w

I think this highlights a few issues. One is that we’re starting to see more normal hospital census numbers return, with an underlying panic that it’s COVID causing those increases (well, I guess it is, indirectly, but not the way we’re thinking it is). Another issue is that if you’re seeing those volumes decreasing, you’re going to see some level of decreased in-hospital mortality. Obviously presenting to a hospital introduces a selection bias that tends to select for higher stratification of severity (generally), so you can’t simply apply the odds on paper to out-of-hospital cases, but if you’re looking at it simplistically, there are about 1.5M heart attacks and strokes per year, and 800,000 people dying from cardiovascular disease per year, that would put your 3 month reduction in hospital volume as having 40k people dying outside the hospital (assuming equally distributed severity) for heart disease alone (let alone other causes of mortality). Obviously higher severity will lead to increased chance of hospitalization (skewing that simplistic estimate), but it would also skew the populations that didn’t seek out treatment and increase their mortality rates. The question I’m getting at, not necessarily suggesting but thinking it’s worth discussion, is how many people didn’t seek treatment and resulted in out-of-hospital mortality that’s otherwise unexplained, and perhaps attributed to COVID.
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I’m not sure if this is helpful, but maybe...

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
 
The Thriller said:
Wait. I thought it was all a joke? /s

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So, of course....

“I don’t kid”.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckr...covid-testing-sites-in-texas-and-other-states

The Trump administration is ending funding and support for local COVID-19 testing sites around the country this month, as cases and hospitalizations are skyrocketing in many states.

The federal government will stop providing money and support for 13 sites across five states which were originally set up in the first months of the pandemic to speed up testing at the local level.

Local officials and public health experts expressed a mixture of frustration, resignation, and horror at the decision to let federal support lapse.

Texas will be particularly hard hit by the decision. The federal government gives much-needed testing kits and laboratory access to seven testing sites around Texas. But in the state, which is seeing new peaks in cases, people still face long lines for testing that continues to fail to meet overwhelming demand.
 
Red said:
So, of course....

“I don’t kid”.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckr...covid-testing-sites-in-texas-and-other-states

The Trump administration is ending funding and support for local COVID-19 testing sites around the country this month, as cases and hospitalizations are skyrocketing in many states.

The federal government will stop providing money and support for 13 sites across five states which were originally set up in the first months of the pandemic to speed up testing at the local level.

Local officials and public health experts expressed a mixture of frustration, resignation, and horror at the decision to let federal support lapse.

Texas will be particularly hard hit by the decision. The federal government gives much-needed testing kits and laboratory access to seven testing sites around Texas. But in the state, which is seeing new peaks in cases, people still face long lines for testing that continues to fail to meet overwhelming demand.
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Ignorance is bliss I guess.
 
latin jazz said:
My dear troll bot, you were once bragging that covid predominantly affected poorly-run blue states. Now that it's rapidly growing in red ones, what's your explanation?. Please expand.
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Obvious to everyone that the George Soros and Bill Gates mind-control nanochips that were dropped in rural water supplies by Amazon drones are starting their campaign for supremacy and the majority of us will be dead by nightfall. Invest in gold and firearms, the revolution is coming.
 
Don't know about you guys, but Americans are the dumbest and most arrogant people in the world. That's not a D and R issue, overall as a populace, the world thinks we're idiots.

Other countries are light years ahead of us as their citizens actually worked together to turn the tide. Their economies are also re-opening at a faster clip - imagine that correlation.

Instead, it's almost July and we're still debating that wearing masks violate civil rights and the government can't tell me where to stand.
 
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