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First, even if the number ended up being 400K that's still 16.7% off, which is a pretty huge error.

Second, by claiming we are on track for 400K deaths, you are asserting that there will be ~176,000 deaths from now until Dec 31, 2020. 176k deaths in 76 days.

How about we make a bet. If there are 400K or more covid19 deaths by the end of the year, you win and I delete my account. If there are less than 400k covid19 deaths by then, I win and you delete your account.

First of all, I’m not betting on that. Why would you think that would be an appropriate bet? Would you really feel good about that? I understand that online people say things that they normally wouldn’t in person, but that is was a wildly inappropriate thing to say.

Secondly, how accurate should experts be when projecting pandemic statistics? What is your background in epidemiology anyway?

Lastly, I’m not sure what your agenda is here. Diminish confidence in experts? Build Trust in the morons on Facebook? Experts have never claimed to be 100 percent accurate. But they know a hell of a lot more than your average person. Expertise matters!

Your last few posts have been demeaning and offensive. You’ve been unnecessarily combative and trivializing towards the effects of this virus. So be careful with this next post.
 
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Why would any normal person want to bet on peoples' deaths?

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Yeah, that’s honestly one of the top 5 weirdest things anyone has ever said to me on this website. Super weird and incredibly insensitive. I’m glad I’m not the only one who thought that as well.
 
Yeah, that’s honestly one of the top 5 weirdest things anyone has ever said to me on this website. Super weird and incredibly insensitive. I’m glad I’m not the only one who thought that as well.

The U.S. has been averaging around 700 deaths a day very consistently for the last 3 months. We will be under 300,000 if that holds true so why would you say 400k??
 
The U.S. has been averaging around 700 deaths a day very consistently for the last 3 months. We will be under 300,000 if that holds true so why would you say 400k??

From what I’ve read, experts admit that we’re getting better at treatment but our new cases are exploding. So our ability to save lives is unfortunately negated by our exploding case rates. Forty-one states are seeing increasing cases and over 10 of them just saw record weeks (utah being one of them). That means hospitals will soon be overrun and deaths will follow. The ICU at the U already reports that is over capacity. That puts significant strains on our system. In fact, they describe it as “unsustainable.”


This is even before cold and flu season settles in. Again, our nation’s experts project much more sickness and death ahead of us because of our nation's Lack of leadership. In fact, one can easily make the case that Donald is exacerbating the problem by holding large super spreader events and with his continued politicizing of masks. We can’t contain the virus if containment policies aren’t enforced by state leaders and containment behaviors are mocked by large segments of the population. Refusing to follow science takes a toll.
 
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From what I’ve read, experts admit that we’re getting better at treatment but our new cases are exploding. So our ability to save lives is unfortunately negated by our exploding case rates. Forty-one states are seeing increasing cases and over 10 of them just saw record weeks (utah being one of them). That means hospitals will soon be overrun and deaths will follow. The ICU at the U already reports that is over capacity. That puts significant strains on our system. In fact, they describe it as “unsustainable.”


This is even before cold and flu season settles in. Again, our nation’s experts project much more sickness and death ahead of us because of our nation's Lack of leadership. In fact, one can easily make the case that Donald is exacerbating the problem by holding large super spreader events and with his continued politicizing of masks. We can’t contain the virus if containment policies aren’t enforced by state leaders and containment behaviors are mocked by large segments of the population. Refusing to follow science takes a toll.

I think 350K is the worst case scenario. Our surging cases are in line with many other countries. It's almost like nature is pretty untameable...


 
I think 350K is the worst case scenario. Our surging cases are in line with many other countries. It's almost like nature is pretty untameable...



Opening up restaurants, gyms, bars, and borders is going to be a challenge until there’s a vaccine. Which is why mediation efforts are needed. We should avoid large super spreader rallies, wear masks as much as possible, have as much testing as possible. But we aren’t even trying that here.

I also think we shouldn’t forget that many other countries have contained the virus through masks, social distancing, and testing. South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, Canada, denmark, and Germany have all set great examples. Too bad we’ve ignored them.
 
There’s trying containment measures and not getting the virus contained because it’s hard to.

And then there’s this...



How does this help?
 
The U.S. has been averaging around 700 deaths a day very consistently for the last 3 months. We will be under 300,000 if that holds true so why would you say 400k??
I don't 400K was thrillers number.

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I don't 400K was thrillers number.

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And the 400,000 number is a number given by experts. My background is history and political science, not epidemiology. Two million was an early estimate with no mitigation and 350,000-450,000 are the estimates now by the Univ of Washington and other major modeling institutions. I hope for the lowest number possible. However, I defer to credible experts as this is their focus in training.
 
First of all, I’m not betting on that. Why would you think that would be an appropriate bet? Would you really feel good about that? I understand that online people say things that they normally wouldn’t in person, but that is was a wildly inappropriate thing to say.

Secondly, how accurate should experts be when projecting pandemic statistics? What is your background in epidemiology anyway?

Lastly, I’m not sure what your agenda is here. Diminish confidence in experts? Build Trust in the morons on Facebook? Experts have never claimed to be 100 percent accurate. But they know a hell of a lot more than your average person. Expertise matters!

Your last few posts have been demeaning and offensive. You’ve been unnecessarily combative and trivializing towards the effects of this virus. So be careful with this next post.
You're not betting on that because you don't know how to put your money where your mouth is. It's ok for you to attempt to invoke fear in people, but it's not ok for people to call you out on your fear mongering and bias.

Also you could care less about what experts think if it doesn't support your political agenda. You'll make an argument based mostly on emotions and political bias, claim that "experts" think this way, and then pivot when the statistics prove you wrong, such as in this case.
 
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