Dame Time

[KqWIN]

The EV on unprotected picks is not measured that way in a trade at all. Its not likely enough, but you have to measure the "mystery box" value. Its the same with prospects.... trade value isn't measured by some actuary on a spreadsheet. They are speculative stocks.

You might be surprised with how speculative stocks and assets are measured lol.

I'm including everything in that expected value calculation, the whole thing is the mystery box. Yes that includes the random chance one of those picks becomes the #1 pick and the #1 pick is good. It also includes the random chance it's the 25th pick and the 25th pick ends up sucking. You measure expected value based on some kind of utility. Now, I'm just throwing out a number, but it informed based on history. I should probably not call it a calculation, but more of a guestimation. Feel free to argue against this and provide a different guestimation. But if you have two unprotected draft picks, the expected utility I would reasonably expect to get is about the same as one player who makes it past their rookie deal.

 

[KqWIN]

He is part of those "worse" teams though silly.

Oh yeah, when the oddsmakers see the Blazers versus the Warriors in the playoffs they heavily favor the Warriors because Dame is not good enough and not the rest of his team. That makes perfect sense.

 

[fishonjazz]

Oh yeah, when the oddsmakers see the Blazers versus the Warriors in the playoffs they heavily favor the Warriors because Dame is not good enough and not the rest of his team. That makes perfect sense.

Dame has been in the league for a long time bro. I think the blazers have faced more than just the warriors in the playoffs over that time span.

Fact is that Lillard's teams over all those years rarely get top seeds and are the underdog in most playoff series. Because they aren't very good teams. That he is the main part of. And he hasn't had much success in the playoffs. Don't shoot the messenger. This is simply how his career has gone for whatever reason.

And now he is old and making 60 million per year.

 

[KqWIN]

Dame has been in the league for a long time bro. I think the blazers have faced more than just the warriors in the playoffs over that time span.

Oh, so should should we evaluate his total playoff record like I just did? He has won more than what was expected.

It doesn't matter if he's playing the Warriors or the local middle school team. Dame is the first reason why you would think the Blazers would win and the last reason you would think they would lose.

 

[YoungJefe]

Why do the Blazers want OG... he'd be the piece to spin out for more picks or a piece they would desperately want to keep.

Why would a rebuilding team want a 25 year old wing that's perfect for the modern game? Look at what Mikal and Lauri have done in bigger roles...

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You might be surprised with how speculative stocks and assets are measured lol.

WTF is that supposed to mean?

I'm including everything in that expected value calculation, the whole thing is the mystery box. Yes that includes the random chance one of those picks becomes the #1 pick and the #1 pick is good. It also includes the random chance it's the 25th pick and the 25th pick ends up sucking. You measure expected value based on some kind of utility. Now, I'm just throwing out a number, but it informed based on history. I should probably not call it a calculation, but more of a guestimation. Feel free to argue against this and provide a different guestimation. But if you have two unprotected draft picks, the expected utility I would reasonably expect to get is about the same as one player who makes it past their rookie deal.

That's all well and good... its not how picks are valued in a trade... it just isn't. Almost every team thinks they will do better than that... and they value the chance at hitting a home run. They know the numbers/prospects but the upside gambling part of the deal carries a ton of weight... the "mystery box" component. Daryl Morey and maybe a few others will trade picks for guys like Deanthony Melton... but most of the time 2+ picks means you are trading for an all-star or damn near one.

Look at the Rudy trade... some (maybe even yourself) were bitching and moaning about how we traded Rudy for a pile of magic beans... well one of those magic beans has already busted out and we are already on the positive side of that deal.

3 firsts and a young player is kind of the going rate for an all-star and perfectly reasonable... even if the EV says you should get 8-10 if you want to come out ahead on average.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Why would a rebuilding team want a 25 year old wing that's perfect for the modern game? Look at what Mikal and Lauri have done in bigger roles...

On an expiring contract when their timeline is a few years out? They would flip OG for picks. Brooklyn doesn't own their picks... so there is no value in being ******... otherwise I think they would cash in on Mikal too... Lauri and Mikal both had 3+ years left on their deal... its really not a comparable situation.

 

[KqWIN]

WTF is that supposed to mean?

That's all well and good... its not how picks are valued in a trade... it just isn't. Almost every team thinks they will do better than that... and they value the chance at hitting a home run. They know the numbers/prospects but the upside gambling part of the deal carries a ton of weight... the "mystery box" component. Daryl Morey and maybe a few others will trade picks for guys like Deanthony Melton... but most of the time 2+ picks means you are trading for an all-star or damn near one.

Look at the Rudy trade... some (maybe even yourself) were bitching and moaning about how we traded Rudy for a pile of magic beans... well one of those magic beans has already busted out and we are already on the positive side of that deal.

3 firsts and a young player is kind of the going rate for an all-star and perfectly reasonable... even if the EV says you should get 8-10 if you want to come out ahead on average.

Speculative stocks and assets are measured on spreadsheets. I can't think of a more stereotypical thing to track in spreadsheets haha.

I think what you're getting at is that trades are not "equal" in the sense of EV, and you're absolutely right. The conditions of the two sides in a trade are not the same unless it's a like for like trade. If teams were exchanging veteran players only, or young players/picks only, the EV would be the same. It's not the same if you're trading younger for older or vice versa. If a team is trying to win, good players are going to have more value to them than a team trying to lose and the opposite for picks. If you're saying the EV on trades is not the same in totality, I'm not arguing against that. The Jazz have greater incentive to want Lillard because they have Lauri and Kessler and the Blazers do not because they do not have Lauri and Kessler

What I'm commenting on is the Jazz side of things. If the Jazz tampered or whatever and lost two first round picks...what is a reasonable expectation of the damage of losing those picks. If they kept the picks, I would expect that we lost about one NBA player. But we also could have used those picks to trade for real players, and you likely would have gotten more. That's an opportunity cost perspective, and that's fair. What I'm getting at is that it's still not some franchise altering loss. I haven't even thought about what POR wants....but if you're just making the decision from the Jazz side.

I think the more valid argument against Dame would be his contract. But cap flexibility.....I don't know but expending the cap flexibility on a superstar player seems like a sound strategy in my eyes. Dame is really ****ing good. I don't think we should hesitate to get him for like half of what we got for Mitchell/Gobert. I think we're kidding ourselves if we think we're getting more than Dame out of two unprotected firsts in any scenario. We have all these assets and cap flexibility in the hopes of getting a superstar. Dame is the most ideal situation, but we're hardly selling the farm by putting two or more picks on the table.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Speculative stocks and assets are measured on spreadsheets. I can't think of a more stereotypical thing to track in spreadsheets haha.

Okay boss... haha... I deal with a lot of speculative companies (in the real world) and can tell you EBIDA on a spreadsheet is not what they are valued on.

I think what you're getting at is that trades are not "equal" in the sense of EV, and you're absolutely right. The conditions of the two sides in a trade are not the same unless it's a like for like trade. If teams were exchanging veteran players only, or young players/picks only, the EV would be the same. It's not the same if you're trading younger for older or vice versa. If a team is trying to win, good players are going to have more value to them than a team trying to lose and the opposite for picks. If you're saying the EV on trades is not the same in totality, I'm not arguing against that. The Jazz have greater incentive to want Lillard because they have Lauri and Kessler and the Blazers do not because they do not have Lauri and Kessler

What I'm commenting on is the Jazz side of things. If the Jazz tampered or whatever and lost two first round picks...what is a reasonable expectation of the damage of losing those picks. If they kept the picks, I would expect that we lost about one NBA player. But we also could have used those picks to trade for real players, and you likely would have gotten more. That's an opportunity cost perspective, and that's fair. What I'm getting at is that it's still not some franchise altering loss. I haven't even thought about what POR wants....but if you're just making the decision from the Jazz side.

I think the more valid argument against Dame would be his contract. But cap flexibility.....I don't know but expending the cap flexibility on a superstar player seems like a sound strategy in my eyes. Dame is really ****ing good. I don't think we should hesitate to get him for like half of what we got for Mitchell/Gobert. I think we're kidding ourselves if we think we're getting more than Dame out of two unprotected firsts in any scenario. We have all these assets and cap flexibility in the hopes of getting a superstar. Dame is the most ideal situation, but we're hardly selling the farm by putting two or more picks on the table.

But you also comment on "there we go overvaluing picks" and use EV as the measure to show how we are overvaluing what we can get in a trade. Sir - we are only measuring those picks with regard to their trade value at the current moment because we are talking about a trade. Following recent trades we can have some certainty with how much value those picks have in trade. The EV side really doesn't matter.. just because you could go to 6-8 picks and still be EV positive maybe... doesn't mean you should. So going all "tisk, tisk students picks have X amount of value and there you go overvaluing them" is kinda silly. 3-4 unprotected picks is where the market should be approximately... on a fan board in Utah we will say 2... on a fan board in Portland they want 6. Its all in the fairness window and is flavored to a persons particular preferences and views.

the contract value and cap flexibility go hand in hand and are important. Putting that many eggs in one basket (even if its a star) carries a **** ton of risk.

 

[KqWIN]

Okay boss... haha... I deal with a lot of speculative companies (in the real world) and can tell you EBIDA on a spreadsheet is not what they are valued on.

But you also comment on "there we go overvaluing picks" and use EV as the measure to show how we are overvaluing what we can get in a trade. Sir - we are only measuring those picks with regard to their trade value at the current moment because we are talking about a trade. Following recent trades we can have some certainty with how much value those picks have in trade. The EV side really doesn't matter.. just because you could go to 6-8 picks and still be EV positive maybe... doesn't mean you should. So going all "tisk, tisk students picks have X amount of value and there you go overvaluing them" is kinda silly. 3-4 unprotected picks is where the market should be approximately... on a fan board in Utah we will say 2... on a fan board in Portland they want 6. Its all in the fairness window and is flavored to a persons particular preferences and views.

the contract value and cap flexibility go hand in hand and are important. Putting that many eggs in one basket (even if its a star) carries a **** ton of risk.

Speculative investing is all about crunching the numbers, assessing risk and utility. Way more complicated than that, obviously, it's just funny to see someone mention financial investing as something without quantitative rigor. They ain't paying all these quants to say "mystery box". They're paying them to make is as little of a mystery box as possible by crunching the numbers.

I don't think being a homer really you from any sort of pushback. If Jazz fans are wildly overrating the value of unprotected picks, whether it's in the context of actually drafting with them or trading from them, I'm just going to say my opinion on it. If the Jazz are only willing to go two picks for Lillard that is a big mistake and missed opportunity IMO. I think it's silly to think that you can do better than Damian Lillard, easily a top 10 player this season, with two unprotected picks through draft or through trading them. When deciding on what to give up for Damian Lillard, I think the EV you're giving up (again through draft or trade) does matter quite a bit. Once again, I am not saying that trades have to be equal on EV....but that does not mean you can't consider and assess what you are actually giving up.

 

[YoungJefe]

On an expiring contract when their timeline is a few years out? They would flip OG for picks. Brooklyn doesn't own their picks... so there is no value in being ******... otherwise I think they would cash in on Mikal too... Lauri and Mikal both had 3+ years left on their deal... its really not a comparable situation.

They can't extend him? lol

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

They can't extend him? lol

They would have limitations and he could walk for nothing if he decides he ain't all that excited about a rebuild.