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DeMar DeRozan?

who cares about the regular season, if your team isnt built to cruise thru the regular season, your not winning **** come playoff time...

the playoffs are about matchups(not advanced stats), DeRozan's from compton, if he exploded for us in the playoffs vs the clips or lakers the ramifications would be awesome, id bet the farm his next season would be a coming out party

DeRozan is a matchup problem, on a bottom 5 3point shooting team

put him around shooters, in a healthy system he can really suprise to the upside

he might not have much confidence in himself or his teammates, (and especially not the FO, with the rudy gay and terrence ross moves)

thats why i think he might be on sale, and really suprise to the upside

also DeRozan is 7months older than Rookie Jeff Withey
 
In the case of DeRozan though, 16.2 percent of his field goal attempts stem from him coming off screens. That’s the second highest percentage of plays he uses to create shots.

Thus, several of his field goal attempts are being put up with defenders in his grill.

In other words, Toronto is misusing him.

Andrea Bargnani was supposed to help mitigate this issue. Camping him on the opposite side of the court would help stretch out the defense and remove one big man from the paint.

In addition, DeRozan could even curl off a Bargnani screen and when his defender would step up to thwart the guard, DeMar would be afforded with the possibility of dishing to Bargs for an open jumper.

Mind you, Il Mago’s lost shooting touch, coupled with his injury have certainly complicated matters for the offense.

Put it all together and DeMar DeRozan has taken the second most amount of midrange jumpers in the league this season per NBA.com’s advanced stats tool. For a player with his athleticism, that’s a startling revelation.
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from raptorsrepublic.com
 
To be fair, looking at a variety of stats, DeRozan is a challenge to project.

From the synergy sports data, he was a very efficient iso player this season (0.91 PPP v. league average of 0.81 PPP), shooting out of these situations relatively frequently (on 15.6% of his possessions; league average was 10.5%). He was also above average shooting as the pick and roll ball handler (0.87 PPP v. league average of 0.79 PPP) on roughly league average frequency. His overall defense against his opposite number has steadily improved since his rookie season: 1.01 in 9/10, 0.94 in 10/11, 0.92 in 11/12, 0.88 in 12/13. He's also an above average post up player (relative to the league; not sure about his position). He's generally a below average spot up shooter, although he beat league average this season (although he was presumably below average among 2 guards). He's a bit above average in transition, and is a great athlete. I'm not that impressed by his shooting off screens, as he's roughly average (in PPP), and shots off screens are not particularly efficient and generally don't lead to better offense for other players (like isos, post ups and pick and rolls...these are likely the reasons teams take so few shots off screens).

The head scratcher for me is that DeRozan generally scores poorly in +/-, adjusted +/-, regularized adjusted +/-, etc. This would indicate (albeit with some error) that he's not a particularly good team player (or, potentially, that he plays in lineups that aren't particularly complementary).

With all that said, he might be worth the risk. My biggest hang up would be the perimeter defense of a lineup featuring Burke, DeRozan and Hayward. If you can trade Hayward for a more physical 3 who's also a good spot up shooter (Hayward is an elite spot up shooter), DeRozan might work. Finding physical 3s who can shoot it isn't particularly easy though.
 
We already have Burks, who basically has the same skill set as and could easily be as good as Derozan. Both will always be limited by their limited long range shooting skills. We need a SG who can shoot and slash (vertically challenged combo guards don't count). If we're not going to let Burks play, no point bringing in someone like Derozan. Bring in someone who can shoot the three and take it to the basket and I'm on board.
 
Food for thought:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/derozde01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/burksal01.html

Derozan scores 105 Offensive Rating. He allows 110 Defensive Rating.
Hayward scores 113 Offensive Rating. He allows 110 Defensive Rating.
Burks scores 102 Offensive Rating. He allows 109 Defensive Rating.

The Rating predicts point scored/allowed per 100 possessions.


I don't see the clear advantage for DeRozan.
 
CALJAZZFAN said:
We already have Burks, who basically has the same skill set as and could easily be as good as Derozan.
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DeRozan is quite efficient in isos and as a pick and roll ball handler. Burks is below average. DeRozan has a much better physical/athletic profile as well. It's highly unlikely Burks ever grows into the player DeRozan is. Burks just isn't that good.
 
Good post, Qman. DeRozan is too expensive relative to his value. By mid-season do we want to be paying a backup PG $9M? Contracts like DeRozan's are franchise killers.
 
Qman said:
Food for thought:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/derozde01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/burksal01.html

Derozan scores 105 Offensive Rating. He allows 110 Defensive Rating.
Hayward scores 113 Offensive Rating. He allows 110 Defensive Rating.
Burks scores 102 Offensive Rating. He allows 109 Defensive Rating.

The Rating predicts point scored/allowed per 100 possessions.


I don't see the clear advantage for DeRozan.
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ORTG and DRTG are incredibly flawed.

In particular, ORTG treats all shots as equal. Players whose role it is to create will have a lower ORTG (although they can make up for this to some degree with assists) since shots out of isos, pick and roll handler and post up possessions have a lower expected value than off ball shots (which are created mostly through isos, pick and rolls and post ups). DRTG assumes that all players on the court are contributing the same defensive value outside of the blocks, steals and defensive rebounds they accumulate. Yuck.
 
Core4 said:
Good post, Qman. DeRozan is too expensive relative to his value. By mid-season do we want to be paying a backup PG $9M? Contracts like DeRozan's are franchise killers.
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That's hardly true. DeRozan would be a good value at $7.5mm; overpaying by a million or so it's some death knell.

I don't really want the guy because of the situation, not because he won't be a solid player. Getting him would mean giving up on Hayward and Burks. That's not a bad thing if the FO could turn them into a top 12 small forward, but that's not going to happen.
 
franklin said:
That's hardly true. DeRozan would be a good value at $7.5mm; overpaying by a million or so it's some death knell.

I don't really want the guy because of the situation, not because he won't be a solid player. Getting him would mean giving up on Hayward and Burks. That's not a bad thing if the FO could turn them into a top 12 small forward, but that's not going to happen.
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Bingo. It'll be interesting to see what sort of money Hayward gets. I consider him a better overall talent than DeRozan, especially on a team that already has a couple guys who can create (it'll be interesting to see how Kanter and Burke perform this season). If the Jazz don't bring in any big name/high usage players this summer, they should be trying to lock up Hayward now. A big season from him might make a player like DeRozan (and his contract) pretty attractive.
 
Hayward gets D. Lee money?? (i have a bad feeling about this)

if i was his agent thats what id be looking for, thats why if i was the gm of the jazz id extract full value for him now or at the deadline. or get him locked in for years around DeRozan money...

has burks de-valued since his draft pick?

i think not

maybe burks can land us a 2nd pick in the 2014 draft around deadline time?

GM's Job is to put the most talent on the floor, u guys are worried about minutes and things of that nature

the jazz dont subscribe to those rules (take a guy 3rd, u better play him!)

DeRozan is obviously way better than burks...

18ppg! (how many players on the jazz averaged 18ppg in 2012-2013?,

stop comparing him to burks, ones proven the other is NOT, Derozan was in the top 20 of PPG last year, Burks was like that, in summer league...
 
if your Haywards agent, knowing the offersheet Tyreke Evans is about to sign...

how are you not going to ask for more?
 
PointGod_AlecBurks said:
if your Haywards agent, knowing the offersheet Tyreke Evans is about to sign...

how are you not going to ask for more?
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Right or wrong, a lot of teams (albeit mostly bad ones) pay a lot for players with iso ability, regardless of their defensive prowess or bball iq, presumably thinking it's easier to figure out team play than it is to develop handles/finishing ability. Hayward doesn't have the flashy skills, but he's a terrific spot up shooter and overall team and transition player. I suspect he could be re-signed for DeRozan money (or less, potentially) this summer.
 
last season, Andrea Bargnani averaged 12.2 field goal attempts per game, in 28.7minutes per game

he shot 39% from the field, and 30% from 3, on 3.5 attempts per

they expected him to open the lanes for DeRozan...

obviously when you look at those #'s, teams were letting Bargs shoot

meaning teams were sagging off of bargs to clog the driving lanes, therefore DeRozan put up those #'s with lots of help defense coming at him

DeRozan with proper spacing, and shooters like Hayward and Burke flanking him, makes me thing he can really outperform expectations, if he was the jazz starting SG next year...

also its fair in my estimation to think DeRozan was forced to over-extend himself on the offensive end, giving him an excuse for some of his defensive lapses,

and its not like the raptors have a good defense to help derozan, i have a hard time placing individual blame on DeRozan, when it was the failures of the FO and mostly Andrea Bargnani
 
GVC said:
Right or wrong, a lot of teams (albeit mostly bad ones) pay a lot for players with iso ability, regardless of their defensive prowess or bball iq, presumably thinking it's easier to figure out team play than it is to develop handles/finishing ability. Hayward doesn't have the flashy skills, but he's a terrific spot up shooter and overall team and transition player. I suspect he could be re-signed for DeRozan money (or less, potentially) this summer.
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If he can be kept at sub $10 mil/year (average) then I would consider that a good deal. Anything more and my feet start to get a little cold.
 
In regards to DeRoseanne, I know about as much about him as I do an anonymous scrub. I didn't like him as a prospect and liked him less where he was drafted and that's where I've left it.
 
NUMBERICA said:
If he can be kept at sub $10 mil/year (average) then I would consider that a good deal. Anything more and my feet start to get a little cold.
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my thoughts exactly, if we can get him for 8 per on a 4 year deal, thats one of the best contracts in the league, imo

BUT, i think he gets the D. Lee, whiteboy-premium contract..

(been saying this)

Unless Hayward is going to accept under market value to stay with the team, which he may

if im his agent, and hayward tells me he wants the most $$$ he can find, i tell the jazz (like what brandon jennings just did to the bucks)

heres the offer i will sign, and it would be 4 years, 48mil, and the 4th year would be a player option
 
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