Game6Conley
Well-Known Member
from raptorsrepublic.com
DeMar DeRozan?
- Thread starter Game6Conley
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GVC
Well-Known Member
To be fair, looking at a variety of stats, DeRozan is a challenge to project.
From the synergy sports data, he was a very efficient iso player this season (0.91 PPP v. league average of 0.81 PPP), shooting out of these situations relatively frequently (on 15.6% of his possessions; league average was 10.5%). He was also above average shooting as the pick and roll ball handler (0.87 PPP v. league average of 0.79 PPP) on roughly league average frequency. His overall defense against his opposite number has steadily improved since his rookie season: 1.01 in 9/10, 0.94 in 10/11, 0.92 in 11/12, 0.88 in 12/13. He's also an above average post up player (relative to the league; not sure about his position). He's generally a below average spot up shooter, although he beat league average this season (although he was presumably below average among 2 guards). He's a bit above average in transition, and is a great athlete. I'm not that impressed by his shooting off screens, as he's roughly average (in PPP), and shots off screens are not particularly efficient and generally don't lead to better offense for other players (like isos, post ups and pick and rolls...these are likely the reasons teams take so few shots off screens).
The head scratcher for me is that DeRozan generally scores poorly in +/-, adjusted +/-, regularized adjusted +/-, etc. This would indicate (albeit with some error) that he's not a particularly good team player (or, potentially, that he plays in lineups that aren't particularly complementary).
With all that said, he might be worth the risk. My biggest hang up would be the perimeter defense of a lineup featuring Burke, DeRozan and Hayward. If you can trade Hayward for a more physical 3 who's also a good spot up shooter (Hayward is an elite spot up shooter), DeRozan might work. Finding physical 3s who can shoot it isn't particularly easy though.
From the synergy sports data, he was a very efficient iso player this season (0.91 PPP v. league average of 0.81 PPP), shooting out of these situations relatively frequently (on 15.6% of his possessions; league average was 10.5%). He was also above average shooting as the pick and roll ball handler (0.87 PPP v. league average of 0.79 PPP) on roughly league average frequency. His overall defense against his opposite number has steadily improved since his rookie season: 1.01 in 9/10, 0.94 in 10/11, 0.92 in 11/12, 0.88 in 12/13. He's also an above average post up player (relative to the league; not sure about his position). He's generally a below average spot up shooter, although he beat league average this season (although he was presumably below average among 2 guards). He's a bit above average in transition, and is a great athlete. I'm not that impressed by his shooting off screens, as he's roughly average (in PPP), and shots off screens are not particularly efficient and generally don't lead to better offense for other players (like isos, post ups and pick and rolls...these are likely the reasons teams take so few shots off screens).
The head scratcher for me is that DeRozan generally scores poorly in +/-, adjusted +/-, regularized adjusted +/-, etc. This would indicate (albeit with some error) that he's not a particularly good team player (or, potentially, that he plays in lineups that aren't particularly complementary).
With all that said, he might be worth the risk. My biggest hang up would be the perimeter defense of a lineup featuring Burke, DeRozan and Hayward. If you can trade Hayward for a more physical 3 who's also a good spot up shooter (Hayward is an elite spot up shooter), DeRozan might work. Finding physical 3s who can shoot it isn't particularly easy though.
CALJAZZFAN
Well-Known Member
We already have Burks, who basically has the same skill set as and could easily be as good as Derozan. Both will always be limited by their limited long range shooting skills. We need a SG who can shoot and slash (vertically challenged combo guards don't count). If we're not going to let Burks play, no point bringing in someone like Derozan. Bring in someone who can shoot the three and take it to the basket and I'm on board.
Food for thought:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/derozde01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/burksal01.html
Derozan scores 105 Offensive Rating. He allows 110 Defensive Rating.
Hayward scores 113 Offensive Rating. He allows 110 Defensive Rating.
Burks scores 102 Offensive Rating. He allows 109 Defensive Rating.
The Rating predicts point scored/allowed per 100 possessions.
I don't see the clear advantage for DeRozan.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/derozde01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/burksal01.html
Derozan scores 105 Offensive Rating. He allows 110 Defensive Rating.
Hayward scores 113 Offensive Rating. He allows 110 Defensive Rating.
Burks scores 102 Offensive Rating. He allows 109 Defensive Rating.
The Rating predicts point scored/allowed per 100 possessions.
I don't see the clear advantage for DeRozan.
GVC
Well-Known Member
DeRozan is quite efficient in isos and as a pick and roll ball handler. Burks is below average. DeRozan has a much better physical/athletic profile as well. It's highly unlikely Burks ever grows into the player DeRozan is. Burks just isn't that good.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
Good post, Qman. DeRozan is too expensive relative to his value. By mid-season do we want to be paying a backup PG $9M? Contracts like DeRozan's are franchise killers.
GVC
Well-Known Member
ORTG and DRTG are incredibly flawed.
In particular, ORTG treats all shots as equal. Players whose role it is to create will have a lower ORTG (although they can make up for this to some degree with assists) since shots out of isos, pick and roll handler and post up possessions have a lower expected value than off ball shots (which are created mostly through isos, pick and rolls and post ups). DRTG assumes that all players on the court are contributing the same defensive value outside of the blocks, steals and defensive rebounds they accumulate. Yuck.
That's hardly true. DeRozan would be a good value at $7.5mm; overpaying by a million or so it's some death knell.
I don't really want the guy because of the situation, not because he won't be a solid player. Getting him would mean giving up on Hayward and Burks. That's not a bad thing if the FO could turn them into a top 12 small forward, but that's not going to happen.
GVC
Well-Known Member
Bingo. It'll be interesting to see what sort of money Hayward gets. I consider him a better overall talent than DeRozan, especially on a team that already has a couple guys who can create (it'll be interesting to see how Kanter and Burke perform this season). If the Jazz don't bring in any big name/high usage players this summer, they should be trying to lock up Hayward now. A big season from him might make a player like DeRozan (and his contract) pretty attractive.
Game6Conley
Well-Known Member
Hayward gets D. Lee money?? (i have a bad feeling about this)
if i was his agent thats what id be looking for, thats why if i was the gm of the jazz id extract full value for him now or at the deadline. or get him locked in for years around DeRozan money...
has burks de-valued since his draft pick?
i think not
maybe burks can land us a 2nd pick in the 2014 draft around deadline time?
GM's Job is to put the most talent on the floor, u guys are worried about minutes and things of that nature
the jazz dont subscribe to those rules (take a guy 3rd, u better play him!)
DeRozan is obviously way better than burks...
18ppg! (how many players on the jazz averaged 18ppg in 2012-2013?,
stop comparing him to burks, ones proven the other is NOT, Derozan was in the top 20 of PPG last year, Burks was like that, in summer league...
if i was his agent thats what id be looking for, thats why if i was the gm of the jazz id extract full value for him now or at the deadline. or get him locked in for years around DeRozan money...
has burks de-valued since his draft pick?
i think not
maybe burks can land us a 2nd pick in the 2014 draft around deadline time?
GM's Job is to put the most talent on the floor, u guys are worried about minutes and things of that nature
the jazz dont subscribe to those rules (take a guy 3rd, u better play him!)
DeRozan is obviously way better than burks...
18ppg! (how many players on the jazz averaged 18ppg in 2012-2013?,
stop comparing him to burks, ones proven the other is NOT, Derozan was in the top 20 of PPG last year, Burks was like that, in summer league...
Game6Conley
Well-Known Member
if your Haywards agent, knowing the offersheet Tyreke Evans is about to sign...
how are you not going to ask for more?
how are you not going to ask for more?
GVC
Well-Known Member
Right or wrong, a lot of teams (albeit mostly bad ones) pay a lot for players with iso ability, regardless of their defensive prowess or bball iq, presumably thinking it's easier to figure out team play than it is to develop handles/finishing ability. Hayward doesn't have the flashy skills, but he's a terrific spot up shooter and overall team and transition player. I suspect he could be re-signed for DeRozan money (or less, potentially) this summer.