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Do the Jazz get out of the first round?

Do the Jazz get out of the first round?

  • Yes

    Votes: 26 33.8%
  • No

    Votes: 28 36.4%
  • Depends on matchup

    Votes: 23 29.9%

  • Total voters
    77
You’ll get about 50 cents on the dollar by moving Rudy. May get about 65 cents on the dollar moving Donovan. Move Rudy first and you’ll end up making both those moves.

Move Quin and you may get anywhere from 80-120 cents on the dollar.

But we should probably have Rudy be a lifer. But I don’t think we will. I’m afraid we’ll sacrifice the more prolonged relevance he could bring for a really terrible season or two of Donovan and Quin floundering around before we cash in DM for the 60 cents.

65 cents is better than zero. I have no delusions that Mitchell will be a lifer. Having Donovan past his current deal is not even a possibility I’m considering because I find it so unlikely. So two things can happen. We can have Donovan for the duration of his contract and get nothing when he leaves or we can trade him. In reality, Don will likely make that decision for us by demanding a trade.

Rudy could be a lifer if we keep paying him max deals. The rest of the league does not value him and I agree we won’t get much back if anything in a trade. It will be a rude awakening when we choose Don…but that’s another inevitability in my mind. There is no discussion in ownership/FO between Rudy and Don. If it comes to that point, they are picking Don. I would go as far to say that Rudy’s future with the team is almost entirely tied to Don’s opinion on him. The FO/ownership might really want to keep Rudy, but they would cave in an instant if Don wants him gone. That’s just how I see things and I don’t consider alternatives where we go against Don’s wishes as realistic. Maybe Don wants to keep Rudy around….but the fact is that if he doesn’t Rudy is gone and Don will be gone a year after he realizes he can’t win without Rudy on this roster.

I don’t even go into the details if these moves are bad or what the correct decision would be. Like I said, it’s just inevitably. Don will leave at some point. And if Don doesn’t want Rudy here, Rudy is gone. If he laid down the demand this summer, Rudy would have already been gone.

Truth is that we badly missed on our opportunity the last few years. We likely won’t have a better opportunity to win in decades…which is why I scoffed at the idea of tightly holding onto a 2028 pick or whatever it was during trade deadline. Having both Don and Rudy on the same team is incredibly rare. It was never going to last forever, so we have to win while we still have them.
 
If you let Forrest handle the ball it won't be much of a problem cuz it forces the opponent to guard you, which is exactly why a guy like Herb Jones will struggle to see minutes here. If you aren't a ball handler, you'd better be a shooter/floor spacer because our entire offense lives on spacing. Just imagine a guy other than Donovan handling the ball in situations like this, it'd easily become a TO and fast break points on the other end.

Two problems with that. 1) you’re running your offense through Trent Forrest. 2) teams will easily adapt to playing off him when he has the ball. Forrest has gotten much better at actually being a threat to score with the ball, but it’s mostly by surprising the defense. The more scouting teams do, the worse it gets. Beyond scouting…it’s a complete win for the defense if the best offense in the league turns into Trent Forrest dominating the ball.

Herb Jones to Trent Forrest as shooters and off ball players is not remotely close either. It’s like comparing Ray Allen to Royce O’Neale. Forrest is one of the worst shooters in the entire NBA for a guard. Herb shoots a tad below average on low but not non-existent volume. He’s also a game changing defender whereas Forrest isn’t.
 
Two problems with that. 1) you’re running your offense through Trent Forrest. 2) teams will easily adapt to playing off him when he has the ball. Forrest has gotten much better at actually being a threat to score with the ball, but it’s mostly by surprising the defense. The more scouting teams do, the worse it gets. Beyond scouting…it’s a complete win for the defense if the best offense in the league turns into Trent Forrest dominating the ball.

Herb Jones to Trent Forrest as shooters and off ball players is not remotely close either. It’s like comparing Ray Allen to Royce O’Neale. Forrest is one of the worst shooters in the entire NBA for a guard. Herb shoots a tad below average on low but not non-existent volume. He’s also a game changing defender whereas Forrest isn’t.
Talking about the system, not the player. I'm the one who said Jones will be perennial DPOY candidate so I agree with most things you said.

Just trying to say that Herb Jones wouldn't even get minutes under Quin because he's not a ball handler. Forrest is a PG and will at least draw his defenders attention when he has the ball in his hand, which is why he has no trouble seeing the floor. Non-shooters will always struggle to find a role here because their defenders can just cheat off of them in the corner and create a trap like what you saw in the pictures. And just don't expect guys other than Donovan find a solution for you when that happens.

When we acquire Bogey and Conley in 2019, we set ourselves for a lineup with three guys who can't create space consistently for themselves(Rudy/Conley/Bogey) so that fourth guy has to stretch the floor well enough for the offense to flow. Therefore Royce's been glued to the starting lineup ever since 2019 purely because of his ability to shoot the 3s/stretch the floor. imagine how many weakside closeout or pick n roll opportunities would have disappeared for Conley/Bogey if we replace Royce with Oni/forrest/favors standing in the corner for their defenders to cheat off
 
dear Butler, we need you to speed up your development. you have played some NBA minutes already. you are not a rookie anymore
 
We've basically wasted a year of developing Butler by giving Forrest a spot in the rotation over him, and it was all for nothing since Forrest is going to be completely unplayable in the playoffs anyway.
This is the worst part of it. Yeah sure, Butler is not going to be a huge difference-maker this year, but by god neither is Forrest as he cannot shoot and is easily negated. Butler has so much more potential than Forrest that we are just wasting, throwing right in the *****er. I don't care if he makes 3 mistakes in the first 2 minutes on the floor. In the next 8-10 he was generating some real plays and getting more comfortable with the offense and his defense is on par with Forrest, playing during the injury and covid stretch, and if you gave him those minutes consistently he would improve. Remember, Forrest went through the same learning curve last year and into this year before he started to be comfortable and stable in the vaunted System of the Snyder. But no, Butler had to be benched as soon as everyone was healthy because what, we already invested 2 years in Forrest, so the sunk cost wins out over the high-value gamble? Stupid people management from the FO and coaching staff. It will come back to bite us as soon as we realize that in the playoffs Forrest is this year's Niang, completely unplayable and adds nothing, whereas during the regular seasons we relied on him way too much, so now we have nothing else to show to make up for his empty spot in the playoffs.

We have seriously taken 2 steps back as a team this year. I will be happily surprised if we win in the first round, and I seriously doubt we can do anything in the 2nd round at all.
 
We've basically wasted a year of developing Butler by giving Forrest a spot in the rotation over him, and it was all for nothing since Forrest is going to be completely unplayable in the playoffs anyway.
We wasted a draft pick to get a PG who's behind Forrest in the pecking order. Would've been much better if we can get a 3/4 like Herb Jones with the pick.
 
We wasted a draft pick to get a PG who's behind Forrest in the pecking order. Would've been much better if we can get a 3/4 like Herb Jones with the pick.
I am ok with the Butler pick, but only if they actually work to get him into the system. The wasted pick was the Doke pick. So many good wings went around when he did that we whiffed on, for what exactly? Yeah, that pick was the worst we have had in a long time.
 
We've basically wasted a year of developing Butler by giving Forrest a spot in the rotation over him, and it was all for nothing since Forrest is going to be completely unplayable in the playoffs anyway.
If only there were some internet geniuses screaming that this would happen…
 
We wasted a draft pick to get a PG who's behind Forrest in the pecking order. Would've been much better if we can get a 3/4 like Herb Jones with the pick.
And with any luck he could have edged out Hughes for his spot. Maybe.
 
I am ok with the Butler pick, but only if they actually work to get him into the system. The wasted pick was the Doke pick. So many good wings went around when he did that we whiffed on, for what exactly? Yeah, that pick was the worst we have had in a long time.
I wanted JB… so I’m kind of biased. The issue is really not letting him play and develop after sliding back to take him in the second round. Once we did that he only has a two year deal and you need to accelerate his development. If coach and front office weren’t on the same page you look at a guy that can get time immediately or take the guy you want at 30 so you can be more patient.

JB will be an nba player health permitting… I’m not sure he will get the chance to do it here.
 
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