lol what?
Do you think our FO has Ace, Tre and VJ ranked 3-5?
- Thread starter HermanG
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HadAnEffectHere
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The lack of free throws and steals and rebounds cause Tre and Ace to project fairly badly to the NBA by analytics models. VJ and Kon are ranked as high level prospects by their stat projections.
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Remembered Maluach being in the teens, my bad.
I didnt know too much about this model so started working backwards.
Skipped 2024 cause who tf knows.. 2023 looked rough and I couldnt continue after seeing his 2022 stat model placing Banchero 35th and JDub 59th.
Some people have too much free time.
I don't know everything about Pelton's model, but my intuition says that 1) Pelton's model is probably underrating Tre's shooting and 2) Tre is a player that models will just generally dislike.
1) Pelton seems to project shooting based on the standard shooting indicators (3FG%, volume, FT%). Tre's numbers are good, but his volume is high, but not out of this world. If you looked at his tankathon 3FG% projection which uses the same factor, it's very good but also comparable to very good shooters in previous drafts. What separates Tre from the others is that the degree of difficulty of his shots seems higher. That is really only caught in 3FG volume, but his volume is not as high as his degree of difficulty might suggest. So he's probably a little underrated in that aspect.
He also incorporates high school 3FG% which wasn't great. I don't have great opinions on how much that factors in or how much it should (if at all).
2) Even if we are certain about Tre's shooting, we must remember that shooting is one of the flimsier things to predict. A model can never be too sure about shooting because it's generally hard to predict, so when a large part of player's case is based on shooting it can make a large part of his case feel unpredictable. This doesn't necessarily seem to be the case with Pelton's model, but I think that's something you see generally with those who attempt to model the draft. Beyond that, his peripheral numbers are extremely low and those are pretty much universally agreed upon as big indicators across the board model wise. So Tre was never likely to be a top 15 player in this context.
1) Pelton seems to project shooting based on the standard shooting indicators (3FG%, volume, FT%). Tre's numbers are good, but his volume is high, but not out of this world. If you looked at his tankathon 3FG% projection which uses the same factor, it's very good but also comparable to very good shooters in previous drafts. What separates Tre from the others is that the degree of difficulty of his shots seems higher. That is really only caught in 3FG volume, but his volume is not as high as his degree of difficulty might suggest. So he's probably a little underrated in that aspect.
He also incorporates high school 3FG% which wasn't great. I don't have great opinions on how much that factors in or how much it should (if at all).
2) Even if we are certain about Tre's shooting, we must remember that shooting is one of the flimsier things to predict. A model can never be too sure about shooting because it's generally hard to predict, so when a large part of player's case is based on shooting it can make a large part of his case feel unpredictable. This doesn't necessarily seem to be the case with Pelton's model, but I think that's something you see generally with those who attempt to model the draft. Beyond that, his peripheral numbers are extremely low and those are pretty much universally agreed upon as big indicators across the board model wise. So Tre was never likely to be a top 15 player in this context.
Even if we just watch him on film... It's pretty clear what Tre's path to success is and it's pretty clear that if he doesn't succeed in that path he will have hard time impacting the game in other ways to justify that type of pick. If he's not primary or at least high level secondary initiator, he seems like a ... bench player.
For the record, again, because people misread what I'm saying when I say that, I do NOT mind any of this. I think taking high upside(whatever that means), even if it's accompanied by risk of completely busting, is a legitimate strategy at this point of the draft and I would be perfectly fine with us selecting him. I just wish people would acknowledge this reality.
I said this in the other thread, but I feel very confident (probably over confident) in knowing who he is. He's going to be a great shooter, have a tough shot diet, and be a bad defender. We don't know exactly how great he is, but we kind of know where that lands him. At the high end you got borderline all star players and on the low end you've got role players like Hield/Beasley. There's so many of these guys in the league. It's the coldest take in the world, but it really just comes down to if these guys make their shots when it matters. Jamal Murray is some kind of legendary player when he's cooking, but looks totally useless when he's not. Same for McCollum and guys lower in the same archetype. Buddy Hield is Steph Curry until he's Hield again. This archetype will always have questions about their 16 game value IMO.
I actually don't think he's the risky pick at all. If he makes it above this, it means he makes an extraordinary development—and that does happen sometimes! If he is below this, it means he had an extraordinarily bad transition for some reason—unfortunately that happens sometimes too :/
fishonjazz
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Ya tre is the guy I want most but it wouldn't be surprising if he ended up just being Malik Beasley.
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YoungJefe
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Facts, is he Tyler Herro or is he Jordan Clarkson