Do you think our FO has Ace, Tre and VJ ranked 3-5?

[fishonjazz]

There are six guys mentioned for this range: Tre, VJ, Ace, Maluach, Fears, and Kon.

Out of those six, I think Maluach would be a huge surprise, the other five would not.

Outside of those six, Demin and CMB are probably the only guys that could leap up here, but they would be pretty huge mistakes.

Good post. Though im not sure about the huge mistakes part.

 

[fishonjazz]

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I wouldn’t take too much stock in early mock drafts. Here is one from Givony at this same time last year.

That draft sucks/ed

 

[fishonjazz]

Right, but if you want to evaluate mock drafts you have to wait several years.

Incorrect in the context of the discussion. Right after the draft we immediately can see if the mock draft was close to the actual draft. Which is what is being discussed currently (mock drafts predicting who gets drafted where)

 

[fishonjazz]

Kind of going in circles, but the stat gaps between the prospects at 5 are so massive that it's going to be interesting to see what direction the Jazz go in

Elite stats: VJ, Kon
Meh stats: Fears, Maluach
Bad stats: Tre, Ace

Strange post.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Strange post.

Pelton and other models have VJ and Kon rated as the 2nd and 3rd best players in the draft, Fears and Maluach as mid first guys, and Tre and Ace as late first, early second guys. Tre and Ace are disliked by models due to their lack of steals, assists, rebounds (for Tre), and free throws.

Ace and Tre are still ranked much higher than Cody Williams last year (who was ranked as the 92nd best player in the draft by Pelton) though.

 

[fishonjazz]

Pelton and other models have VJ and Kon rated as the 2nd and 3rd best players in the draft, Fears and Maluach as mid first guys, and Tre and Ace as late first, early second guys. Tre and Ace are disliked by models due to their lack of steals, assists, rebounds (for Tre), and free throws.

Ace and Tre are still ranked much higher than Cody Williams last year (who was ranked as the 92nd best player in the draft by Pelton) though.

Oh I thought you were simply talking about stats and when I look at the players stats I see something different than your post did.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

Pelton and other models have VJ and Kon rated as the 2nd and 3rd best players in the draft, Fears and Maluach as mid first guys, and Tre and Ace as late first, early second guys. Tre and Ace are disliked by models due to their lack of steals, assists, rebounds (for Tre), and free throws.

Ace and Tre are still ranked much higher than Cody Williams last year (who was ranked as the 92nd best player in the draft by Pelton) though.

and we should keep in mind these models are FAR from foolproof. both bailey and johnson compare favorably with a guy like devin booker in those areas - stls, assists, rebounds, free throws, etc.

one of the reasons they are far from foolproof and one reason we should be careful to judge any 18/19 year old on these things as if they are finished products is that guys improve. they change. they develop skills and attributes at 25 they didn't have at 18/19. they play different roles. they are coached differently. Booker's assist rate and FT rate in college were alarmingly low. NBA Devin Booker has had several 6/7 assist per game seasons. he gets to the FT line a lot.

he's just one example of many who have shown skills at the NBA level that were bad at the college level.

if they are a scorer, i'll take my chances because those are the guys who become stars - i'll take my chances they will develop in other areas. if they didn't show scoring chops in college they won't be a scorer at the nba level.

 

[KqWIN]

and we should keep in mind these models are FAR from foolproof. both bailey and johnson compare favorably with a guy like devin booker in those areas - stls, assists, rebounds, free throws, etc.

one of the reasons they are far from foolproof and one reason we should be careful to judge any 18/19 year old on these things as if they are finished products is that guys improve. they change. they develop skills and attributes at 25 they didn't have at 18/19. they play different roles. they are coached differently. Booker's assist rate and FT rate in college were alarmingly low. NBA Devin Booker has had several 6/7 assist per game seasons. he gets to the FT line a lot.

he's just one example of many who have shown skills at the NBA level that were bad at the college level.

if they are a scorer, i'll take my chances because those are the guys who become stars - i'll take my chances they will develop in other areas. if they didn't show scoring chops in college they won't be a scorer at the nba level.

It's about 50/50 if we're talking about guys 3-8. The two best remaining in the playoffs did not score big in college. Neither did Booker who you're using to invalidate the models.

BTW, idk why you're assuming the models assume they don't change. The whole point of the model is to predict how they change lol.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

and we should keep in mind these models are FAR from foolproof. both bailey and johnson compare favorably with a guy like devin booker in those areas - stls, assists, rebounds, free throws, etc.

one of the reasons they are far from foolproof and one reason we should be careful to judge any 18/19 year old on these things as if they are finished products is that guys improve. they change. they develop skills and attributes at 25 they didn't have at 18/19. they play different roles. they are coached differently. Booker's assist rate and FT rate in college were alarmingly low. NBA Devin Booker has had several 6/7 assist per game seasons. he gets to the FT line a lot.

he's just one example of many who have shown skills at the NBA level that were bad at the college level.

if they are a scorer, i'll take my chances because those are the guys who become stars - i'll take my chances they will develop in other areas. if they didn't show scoring chops in college they won't be a scorer at the nba level.

I don't have much opinion on the draft models, but Tre's lack of rebounding and free throws do make me nervous.

Booker was rated badly in large part because Cal forced KAT to play inside (next to WCS!) and gave the Harrison Twins (two of the worst shooters and players I have had the misfortune of watching) a green light. This meant that there was basically no space whatsoever and no touches for Booker.

Tre and Ace got as many touches as they want, but Tre had bad teammates so he's tough to evaluate. Kon had more limited touches, but he had literally the best situation in recent NBA Draft history (he basically played next to the college version of Prime LeBron and Gobert with elite shooters all around them). It's tough to evaluate, but it will just be interesting to see who the Jazz go with as the analytics models have such wildly differing opinions.

I have Tre as #3 in this class, but a weak #3 who should go around 6-7 usually. Just would like to see any metrics where it showed him being able to physically hang. His skillset is perfect though and he seems like a really smart person.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

It's about 50/50 if we're talking about guys 3-8. The two best remaining in the playoffs did not score big in college. Neither did Booker who you're using to invalidate the models.

BTW, idk why you're assuming the models assume they don't change. The whole point of the model is to predict how they change lol.

you're putting words in my mouth. it's not about big scoring numbers - it's about scoring ability - booker was absolutely a scorer. booker's numbers weren't huge because he played bench minutes - but he averaged 30 ppg per 100. SGA's weren't huge because scoring was spread out on that team, but he was the second leading scorer on that kentucky team on 49/40/80 shooting splits. scoring was probably his greatest strength.

if you think Shai, Haliburton, Brunson or Siakam didn't show excellent scoring chops in college, you weren't paying attention. honestly the idea that any of those guys didn't show major scoring ability is laughable. they were all effective and efficient.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

SGA was an OK scorer, but his jumpshot was so broken that most people projected him to be a defensive specialist more than anything. Just one of the worst jumpers I've seen in the last decade. Completely fixed it, obviously.

Donovan Mitchell is probably the worst recent college scorer who turned into a great NBA scorer. Terrible efficiency on fairly low volume and was compared mostly to Avery Bradley out of college.

Haliburton's scoring was also just OK.

 

[KqWIN]

you're putting words in my mouth. it's not about big scoring numbers - it's about scoring ability - booker was absolutely a scorer. booker's numbers weren't huge because he played bench minutes. SGA's weren't huge because scoring was spread out on that team, but he was the second leading scorer on 49/40/80 shooting splits.

if you think Shai, Haliburton, Brunson or Siakam couldn't or didn't score in college, you weren't paying attention. honestly the idea is laughable.

I wasn't putting words in your mouth, I was just alluding to the general concept that guys often improve their scoring in the NBA. You said that this does not happen, so I just offered a countering opinion that it is something that improves. I couldn’t possibly know who you’re subjectively and retroactively labeling as a scorer. With the benefit of hindsight, I bet you have great accuracy in assigning who did and did not have scoring chops. Scoring chops is a vague term and I could not really even tell you if I did or did not think players had them because I don't know what that means. I prefer to use a more concrete standard to make my point. History shows that lower usage players in this draft range go on to become stars at roughly the same rate as higher usage ones. In other words, guys do often score more in the NBA.

And just so I'm clear, the best two I referred to are Shai and Hali. Both grew their offensive games immensely when they got to the league and are prime examples of players increasing their scoring load once they got in the pros. I think scoring is absolutely something that can be developed in the NBA.