Donovan Mitchell unlikely to ask for trade per ESPN’s Brian Windhorst

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I don't love the Heat package, but I would hate to pass on it and then end up having to settle for a worse offer down the road.

Jazz have a year to deal with this. The only real risk is that the Jazz look awful and people around the league say, "Holy ****, the Jazz really were Gobert's team." So Donovan starts to look less like a dominant offensive player.

 

[Miggs]

We just traded our two best defensive players for picks and you want to go with that?

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Vando is a better defender than O’Neale. We also added Bev who’s good.

 

[KqWIN]

I just disagree... I would want more. We all look at the Heat picks as clearly late firsts... which is why you could get them plus the swaps unprotected because they think its all late picks. Since Lebron left the Heat have missed the playoffs 3 times in 8 years... Jimmy is 33 with a ton of miles and a huge contract... Kyle is 37... If they have Bam and Don they are likely middle of the pack Eastern Conference playoff team when healthy... but injuries happen... if they don't have cap space and picks to retool then you may very well end up with a couple lotto picks in that bunch.

Whenever you have unprotected picks the team giving them has no incentive to lose... so they will generally be at worst late lotto mid lotto types. Not sure the pick quality of the Heat picks is >>>>>> Knicks picks... even though NY is a dumpster fire mostly. I also don't think they are sending out unprotected picks at this point.

IMO, Knicks picks are more valuable the Heat picks. I don't feel the need to expand upon that. I also like their younger pieces better. So beyond the picks, the actual players we'd be getting back are just better to me.But the main reasoning behind my statement isn't because I believe the Heat picks are certain to be bad (even though I think that's probably what they will be)....I think packages with "all the picks" will permanently be on the table for Mitchell. Maybe permanently available might be the wrong way to put it, but what I mean is that you will always find your way to this type of package if you wait. It's not difficult to land this type of package when you have a star player. Teams will always be interested in getting a player of this caliber. They are the most valued If we don't take this Heat deal, I don't have much fear that we will get something less even if they pull their offer. There's nothing unique about this deal that makes me think we have to do this.

Truthfully, I think people are very much underestimating the value of a star player. I felt the same way about Gobert. It doesn't feel like any team is desperate to trade for Mitchell at the moment. I'm willing to bet on a team becoming more desperate over time, and I like those odds compared to the potential downsides of teams becoming less interested in Mitchell and the offers getting worse. The Heat package is kind of the bare minimum in my eyes.

 

[TheStormofWar]

Vando is a better defender than O’Neale. We also added Bev who’s good.

And trading our all-world defensive Center. Come on man.

 

[jom2003]

Even if DM wants out it's perfectly understandable. Name me one star player in the middle of his prime that is just willing to sit there to watch his team do a full tear down and say "I'm OK with it." Just one.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

IMO, Knicks picks are more valuable the Heat picks. I don't feel the need to expand upon that. I also like their younger pieces better. So beyond the picks, the actual players we'd be getting back are just better to me.But the main reasoning behind my statement isn't because I believe the Heat picks are certain to be bad (even though I think that's probably what they will be)....I think packages with "all the picks" will permanently be on the table for Mitchell. Maybe permanently available might be the wrong way to put it, but what I mean is that you will always find your way to this type of package if you wait. It's not difficult to land this type of package when you have a star player. Teams will always be interested in getting a player of this caliber. They are the most valued If we don't take this Heat deal, I don't have much fear that we will get something less even if they pull their offer. There's nothing unique about this deal that makes me think we have to do this.

Truthfully, I think people are very much underestimating the value of a star player. I felt the same way about Gobert. It doesn't feel like any team is desperate to trade for Mitchell at the moment. I'm willing to bet on a team becoming more desperate over time, and I like those odds compared to the potential downsides of teams becoming less interested in Mitchell and the offers getting worse. The Heat package is kind of the bare minimum in my eyes.

I do agree Knicks picks are better... much better... but not so much better to wait it out.

I definitely disagree on the "all the picks" packages always being there. Injury risk is one thing... getting slightly exposed is another... but let's assume his value doesn't change much. The teams that offer "all the picks" packages assume they will be good and are selling out... once they sell that package is not available. Indiana for example will not offer and "all the picks" offer. A number of win now teams have already ponied up the picks deals... Clips, Lakers, Nets, Sixers, Bucks, Wolves, Hawks, Nuggets, and some have given up part of their draft future... Celtics, Dallas, Bulls and Heat have given up one too. Suns likely get Nets picks which may create or remove a suitor for Donovan.

So of the teams that can offer up the majority of their draft and would be willing to do it (lotto teams generally aren't doing this) you have Toronto, Phoenix, Memphis, GS, Dallas (only one pick out), Miami (one pick out to OKC), NO maybe, OKC maybe is ready to sell off some stuff.... so when you compare getting all the picks from Miami to those teams then the Heat picks start to look better... some of those teams have young stars and will be good forever. Miami has some aging guys and would have a couple good all-stars in their 20s.

I also think teams are going to start looking at these deals and saying "we can't do that anymore". Draft pick value seems to ebb and flow a bit. I think as these deals start to turn more fruitful for the teams that extracted them teams will think twice. If we get a good young player in Herro and control of Miami's draft for 6 out of 7 years, plus Jovic as a prospect that is kind of the going rate imo. I'd like to get 125% of value for Don.... but I also value starting the rebuild now and not doing this half measure where we keep him for a year.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Even if DM wants out it's perfectly understandable. Name me one star player in the middle of his prime that is just willing to sit there to watch his team do a full tear down and say "I'm OK with it." Just one.

I won't blame him at all.... I don't hate him... I will root for him... He's awesome. This is more about the time it takes to rebuild and not being aligned with his time table. It is likely what is best for both of us.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Hey here’s a thought regarding whether to wait or not.

If the Knicks assume we will wait it out, then they are happy with that. They have to feel urgency to pull the trigger on a big package, otherwise they are happy to wait it out.

 

[Miggs]

And trading our all-world defensive Center. Come on man.

One player. That’s it. Elite, yes. But we got some legit defense and toughness back. And I could totally see Don starting to buy in on defense: No Rudy, Bev and Vando in his ear, new HC.

And losing O’Neale means little. He stunk last year.

 

[YoungJefe]

IMO, Knicks picks are more valuable the Heat picks. I don't feel the need to expand upon that. I also like their younger pieces better. So beyond the picks, the actual players we'd be getting back are just better to me.But the main reasoning behind my statement isn't because I believe the Heat picks are certain to be bad (even though I think that's probably what they will be)....I think packages with "all the picks" will permanently be on the table for Mitchell. Maybe permanently available might be the wrong way to put it, but what I mean is that you will always find your way to this type of package if you wait. It's not difficult to land this type of package when you have a star player. Teams will always be interested in getting a player of this caliber. They are the most valued If we don't take this Heat deal, I don't have much fear that we will get something less even if they pull their offer. There's nothing unique about this deal that makes me think we have to do this.

Truthfully, I think people are very much underestimating the value of a star player. I felt the same way about Gobert. It doesn't feel like any team is desperate to trade for Mitchell at the moment. I'm willing to bet on a team becoming more desperate over time, and I like those odds compared to the potential downsides of teams becoming less interested in Mitchell and the offers getting worse. The Heat package is kind of the bare minimum in my eyes.

These guys don't even realize that Miami can currently only trade their 2023 1st and one of their 2028/2029 1st.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Hey here’s a thought regarding whether to wait or not.

If the Knicks assume we will wait it out, then they are happy with that. They have to feel urgency to pull the trigger on a big package, otherwise they are happy to wait it out.

Exactly... if the heat offer was real... I'd say its at the goal line and leak it out... lets see your cards Knicks. I happen to think they have some reservations.

I would likely prefer to jump in the Nets deal and swipe all the Suns picks... but this leak might move that along too. If it doesn't I'd be fine doing the heat deal.

 

[YoungJefe]

If we get a good young player in Herro and control of Miami's draft for 6 out of 7 years, plus Jovic as a prospect that is kind of the going rate imo. I'd like to get 125% of value for Don.... but I also value starting the rebuild now and not doing this half measure where we keep him for a year.

Miami can only trade their 2023 pick and one of their 2028/2029 picks. Not sure how we'd control their draft for 6 or 7 years with 2 picks.