Election Prediction Thread

[idestroyedthetoilet]

Do you have anything to back that up?

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...rs-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/

Back what up. Its generally accepted by economists.

 

[idestroyedthetoilet]

People who misuse CPI-U as the deflator would also use it as the deflator to show nGDP hasn't grown since 1973. Give me a break.

 

[gandalfe]

Back what up. Its generally accepted by economists.

So, no, you don't. Good to know.

 

[idestroyedthetoilet]

So, no, you don't. Good to know.

If you are to lazy to read into it and comfortable being a flat earther be my guest.

 

[Alfalfa]

So, no, you don't. Good to know.

If you are interested, here's a more in depth page on the subject.

http://www.hamiltonproject.org/papers/thirteen_facts_about_wage_growth

Also, since most economists use CPI as a deflator, maybe with some adjustments, it was difficult to find alternative data. But here's a Dartmouth paper that tries to calculate wage growth using all kinds of different deflation models. Depending on the method, wages have grown between 8% and 45% since 1973.

https://www.dartmouth.edu/~bsacerdo/Sacerdote 50 Years of Growth in American Wages Income and Consumption May 2017.pdf

 

[idestroyedthetoilet]

If you are interested, here's a more in depth page on the subject.

http://www.hamiltonproject.org/papers/thirteen_facts_about_wage_growth

Also, since most economists use CPI as a deflator, maybe with some adjustments, it was difficult to find alternative data. But here's a Dartmouth paper that tries to calculate wage growth using all kinds of different deflation models. Depending on the method, wages have grown between 8% and 45% since 1973.

https://www.dartmouth.edu/~bsacerdo/Sacerdote 50 Years of Growth in American Wages Income and Consumption May 2017.pdf

I've referenced Sacerdote and plenty other stuff in the past. Gandolfini ignores it and is playing dumb.

I dont like to pull out Sacerdote's NBER paper because it's newer which undercuts emphasis on how long economists have known this. Obama tried to put SS COLA on the unpopular but more reasonable chained CPI. We had the Boskin commission in the 1990's. BLS has a FAQ page explaining the problems with their CPI for the shadowstats nutjobs and why it's been adjusted soooooo many times.

The discussion these days is on why wage growth has decoupled from productivity growth. The two used to track rather tightly but wages now lag. That and difference in growth rates by segment, which Sacerdote covers a bit.

 

[infection]

View attachment 6381

If America votes in 2020 like they did this week then Trump is gone.

Interesting. Any idea how this same model held up for predicting the 2012 election based on 2010 mid-terms?

 

[idestroyedthetoilet]

If you are interested, here's a more in depth page on the subject.

http://www.hamiltonproject.org/papers/thirteen_facts_about_wage_growth

Also, since most economists use CPI as a deflator, maybe with some adjustments, it was difficult to find alternative data. But here's a Dartmouth paper that tries to calculate wage growth using all kinds of different deflation models. Depending on the method, wages have grown between 8% and 45% since 1973.

https://www.dartmouth.edu/~bsacerdo/Sacerdote 50 Years of Growth in American Wages Income and Consumption May 2017.pdf

http://www.hamiltonproject.org/papers/thirteen_facts_about_wage_growth

I finally clicked through this and there are some good "facts" there.

I wish Americans could discus this stuff point specific rather than mass appeal advertising, but we only seem interested in converting to 51% while pissing off the 49%. Whenever this topic comes up I catch flack for not liking the myth of wage stagnation. I'm very much in favor of taxing the rich way more and helping the poorer out much, much, much more, while also making the middle class pay as well for what I see as the sins of their voting block (both sides, all stripes). But saying wages and living standards havent increased is treated in America like being against Marxism means you are denying inequality, inequity exists.

Why is it too much to expect focus and ears open to hear?

 

[RandyForRubio]

Somebody tell that bitch Thriller to come and answer for himself.

 

[Stoked]

Somebody tell that bitch Thriller to come and answer for himself.

Who were you before this?

 

[Zombie]

Somebody tell that bitch Thriller to come and answer for himself.

You know nothing he actually wrote in that post is wrong, right?

Taken as a whole the majority in the senate represents something like 20% of the population.

 

[Gameface]

Who were you before this?

just the tip