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ESPN's Pelton Projects Jazz to Finish Third in the West...

R

r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t

Well-Known Member
Contributor
... and win the Northwest Division. He is using RPM, projected playing time, and a few other odds/ends to make his predictions.

1. Warriors
2. Spurs

3. Utah Jazz
Projected wins: 47.6 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)

This might seem like a crazy leap for a team that didn't make the playoffs last year, but remember: The Jazz actually had the fifth-best point differential in the West (plus-1.8 PPG). Ordinarily, that would translate into 46 wins, and that was despite injuries (including Dante Exum missing the entire season) and before Utah loaded up with veterans this offseason. The Jazz should be considered the favorites to win the Northwest Division.

4. Clippers
5. Rockets
6. Thunder
7. Blazers
8. Nuggets
Click to expand...

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/st...otals-standings-every-nba-team-2016-17-season
 
What were Pelton's projections the last 3 years and how did he fare at the end of the season?
 
VINYLONE said:
What were Pelton's projections the last 3 years and how did he fare at the end of the season?
Click to expand...

This is how he predicted the West last season:

1. Warriors 59.8
2. Spurs 58.3
3. Rockets 54.6
4. Thunder 54.0
5. Clippers 53.3
6. Grizzlies 46.7
7. Pelicans 43.5
8. Jazz 41.6
9. Blazers 40.7

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/st...rrated-teams-mvp-candidates-playoff-races-nba

In his own words,

Last season, these projections correctly forecast that the Portland Trail Blazers would be more competitive than expected, the Boston Celtics would maintain their second-half success from the year before and the Milwaukee Bucks would fall out of the playoffs. (They also missed on other teams, including the Toronto Raptors emerging as a top threat to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference and the Houston Rockets limping along near .500.)
Click to expand...
 
I think RPM projections are quite good when it comes to a stat based year projection. I'm mostly surprised to see Denver so high. I didn't see them as a threat to make the playoffs this year.
 
NAOS said:
47.6 wins for the third best team in the West?
Click to expand...

Yeah, it looks like Warriors Spurs and then a lot of parity/ coin flips. This may be realistic, not sure how much difference there is from 3-9 in the West. Could be tight.
 
Honestly I feel confident against anyone in the west, oustside GSW and SAS. 3rd this year is our ceiling IMO, which makes punching through SAS and GSW along the way will be sooooo sweet.
 
This seems high when I read it, but looking at the list I think the only team I would put ahead of us would be the Clippers.
3 seed would be amazing
But this does show how top heavy the west, and also the NBA, truly is.
GSW is miles ahead of everyone and the Spurs are ahead of everyone besides the warriors in the west
 
If everything goes right. Younger players take a step, healthy, new guys gel. On paper we have a lot of talent, and depth.
This is the most excited Ive been coming into a season since the year we added Boozer/Memo.

3 solid FAs, NEW uniforms/logo, and the return of Exum/Burks. YESSSSSSSS!
 
Revolution 9 said:
If everything goes right. Younger players take a step, healthy, new guys gel. On paper we have a lot of talent, and depth.
This is the most excited Ive been coming into a season since the year we added Boozer/Memo.

3 solid FAs, NEW uniforms/logo, and the return of Exum/Burks. YESSSSSSSS!
Click to expand...
This
 
Favors going to get 20/10, Jazz will hold teams to 90-93 ppg (season average), Gobert is in the running for DPOY, Exum for MIP, Burks for 6th man and Snyder for COY. Jazz get 4th and home court advantage and make the 2nd round.
 
Stoked said:
Favors going to get 20/10, Jazz will hold teams to 90-93 ppg (season average), Gobert is in the running for DPOY, Exum for MIP, Burks for 6th man and Snyder for COY. Jazz get 4th and home court advantage and make the 2nd round.
Click to expand...
You forgot Hayward for MVP.
 
NAOS said:
47.6 wins for the third best team in the West?
Click to expand...

That shows how mediocre the west has become outside of GSW and SAS.

Utah added about 2.2 VORP in George Hill over Neto/Exum but that's about it. The bench is still mediocre. Joe Johnson is about as good as Joe Ingles, Boris Diaw is old, Burks has a negative VORP and can't defend, and Exum is garbage.

I could see a 7.6 improvement from Hill + health, but wouldn't bank on much more. The fact that that gets a 3rd seed speaks about the poor health of the league more than it does the state of Utah's competitive stature.
 
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