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Fan Duel Win Totals -- Jazz at 27.5 wins

fishonjazz said:
I would love that starting lineup. Even though Sexton is my favorite player on the team. He might have to swallow a very bitter pill and doesn't deserve that. ****, should probably trade him tbh.
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I agree on Sexton. Tbh, I’d look at making a Sexton for Cole Anthony trade for pick swap options on the Minnesota/Cleveland 25’ picks. If they outperform both those teams, they get their upgrade at backup PG basically for free. It’s worth the risk and a solid move for both Sexton and the tank.
 
Coach Ellis said:
I agree on Sexton. Tbh, I’d look at making a Sexton for Cole Anthony trade for pick swap options on the Minnesota/Cleveland 25’ picks. If they outperform both those teams, they get their upgrade at backup PG basically for free. It’s worth the risk and a solid move for both Sexton and the tank.
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That's a horrendous trade for Sexton. You have to get at least an unprotected first for Sexton.
 
What is more interesting according to VegasInsider site BetMGM, Bally and BetRivers have lines set for all teams except two:
Jazz and Bulls.

Obviously different risk management strategies for those sites compared to FanDuel and Caesars but it also proves there is a fair bit of uncertainty there even after Lauri contract.
 
HermanG said:
FanDuel was so slow to react on the contract news. Caesars line jumped to 29.5 immediately but it took several days for FanDuel to catch up.

Now FanDuel is at 29.5 as well.
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Caesars actually went to 29.5 before the Lauri extension. It doesn't take a lot of money to move the jazz line because there aren't a lot of bettors interested in us. With Fanduel they had the 27.5 line at around a -135 so we knew that line was going to move pretty easy.
 
Preliminary DARKO projections. Minutes made up by me (will switch to Pelton when available). Cody Williams defaulted to -2.5. Other rookies + two ways defaulted to -3.0. I can provide an editable sheet if people want to play around and enter their own minutes values.

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KqWIN said:
Preliminary DARKO projections. Minutes made up by me (will switch to Pelton when available). Cody Williams defaulted to -2.5. Other rookies + two ways defaulted to -3.0. I can provide an editable sheet if people want to play around and enter their own minutes values.

View attachment 17039
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This looks pretty good, but what if Keyonte isn't nearly as negative this year? What happens if you put him at Clarkson's Darko level, -2?
 
KqWIN said:
Jumped up to 28.33 wins. Here is a link to the sheet which you can copy and put in whatever values you'd like:


View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZY1og5ZRgrKekWnpEpm2OSbORtOJdu3_jGc93O-D-4k/edit?usp=sharing


DARKO Ratings: https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO/
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Very interesting and fun to play with. According to this model, our win/loss total will be greatly influenced by how negative Keyonte is. Then the next most important factor is probably how many games Lauri, Kessler, and Sexton play.

In my best case scenario with this roster I got to 33.5 wins. In my worst case scenario with this roster I got to 23.2 wins. The middle point of those two is 28.35 wins, that sounds about right without any changes to the roster at the deadline.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Very interesting and fun to play with. According to this model, our win/loss total will be greatly influenced by how negative Keyonte is. Then the next most important factor is probably how many games Lauri, Kessler, and Sexton play.

In my best case scenario with this roster I got to 33.5 wins. In my worst case scenario with this roster I got to 23.2 wins. The middle point of those two is 28.35 wins, that sounds about right without any changes to the roster at the deadline.
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But this model doesnt factor in the biggest roadblock to Utah tanking: Teams regularly rest stars against Utah in Utah.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Very interesting and fun to play with. According to this model, our win/loss total will be greatly influenced by how negative Keyonte is. Then the next most important factor is probably how many games Lauri, Kessler, and Sexton play.

In my best case scenario with this roster I got to 33.5 wins. In my worst case scenario with this roster I got to 23.2 wins. The middle point of those two is 28.35 wins, that sounds about right without any changes to the roster at the deadline.
Click to expand...

Keep in mind, this is very rudimentary. I wouldn't really call it a model...but I think that range you came up with is pretty fair and reflects what we're seeing Vegas. Everyone has our line at around 29.5....I would take the under personally but I think we've found a reasonable ball park.

I think the higher outcomes are not impossible, but they will also likely be blocked by grimey tanking activities at the end of the years. For example, this team has the ability to become a play in level team if we play all our best players a lot and Key makes a big jump....but we're unlikely to even allow that possibility to happen. We tanked hard two years in a row where the incentives were less, I'd expect to do it once again.

Key is probably my favorite to lead the team in minutes this season, he's definitely a big swing point. I might have to do a case study on guys who had similar early careers....guys who received a ton of opportunity but were also very bad during their rookie years. There's guys like Fox and Garland who got a lot better, but also guys like Burke and Mudiay. I'll have to do a deeper dive to see what we can expect.
 
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