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Following potential 2013 draftees

James Harden.

OJ Mayo.

DeMar DeRozan.

Klay Thompson.

Gordon Hayward/Alec Burks (depending on who plays the 2)

Wesley Matthews.

A slew of players coming in from college.

Beal will either be at the same level or worse than all of those players.


Cool story, Halamon.
 
But it's an odd numbered year. Last year's draft was the strong one. Therefore, this year's must be the weak one. Has anyone else noticed this pattern?

2009 - Greg Monroe went back to school. People called it weak. Looking back, it was way underrated.
2010 - They called it strong, the year of the big man. If Favors doesn't pan out soon, it will go down as way overrated.
2011 - Like this year, everyone called it the weakest ever. Kyrie's a star, and somehow we came out with Kanter at 3 and a prototype SG (kinda rare) at 12. It's looking underrated.
2012 - How much did it suck to lose out on two picks in such a deep draft? It's true Drummond would have been there for us had we won the coin flip, but Terrance Ross went eighth, Austin Rivers tenth. I know it's early for some of the skinny big guys, but so far 2012 is looking not as great as advertised.
2013 - Granted, it hasn't looked awesome for picks 1-3. There are no Derrick Williamses, Evan Turners, or MKGs in this draft, no truly worthy, all-star potential, surefire #2 picks, but maybe it's deeper than it's being given credit for. No way would I trade whichever PG we draft at 13/14 for Kendall Marshall. All in all, it might be better that we lost our pick in a deep draft and got to keep one in this weak draft.

I wish we would just admit how bad we are at evaluating the quality of a draft class as a whole. Maybe it's true that one class may be weak and another strong, but I haven't yet seen the data to prove it. I wish instead of just judging a class by the number of superstars (3 = strong, 1 = weak), that someone would measure draft classes by average production or even just career minutes played. So much of it is opportunity anyway. We know this in Utah. We'll have to listen to people calling Kanter and Favors busts, as if they haven't earned more minutes.

For now, however, GMs will allow the media to call entire draft classes weak because it makes their job easier. They have an excuse when they make a bad pick. But I bet good GMs really know that there is talent to be found in this draft, and hopefully this makes trading up a little easier.

This guy is as smart as his avy looks.
 
But it's an odd numbered year. Last year's draft was the strong one. Therefore, this year's must be the weak one. Has anyone else noticed this pattern?

2009 - Greg Monroe went back to school. People called it weak. Looking back, it was way underrated.
2010 - They called it strong, the year of the big man. If Favors doesn't pan out soon, it will go down as way overrated.
2011 - Like this year, everyone called it the weakest ever. Kyrie's a star, and somehow we came out with Kanter at 3 and a prototype SG (kinda rare) at 12. It's looking underrated.
2012 - How much did it suck to lose out on two picks in such a deep draft? It's true Drummond would have been there for us had we won the coin flip, but Terrance Ross went eighth, Austin Rivers tenth. I know it's early for some of the skinny big guys, but so far 2012 is looking not as great as advertised.
2013 - Granted, it hasn't looked awesome for picks 1-3. There are no Derrick Williamses, Evan Turners, or MKGs in this draft, no truly worthy, all-star potential, surefire #2 picks, but maybe it's deeper than it's being given credit for. No way would I trade whichever PG we draft at 13/14 for Kendall Marshall. All in all, it might be better that we lost our pick in a deep draft and got to keep one in this weak draft.

I wish we would just admit how bad we are at evaluating the quality of a draft class as a whole. Maybe it's true that one class may be weak and another strong, but I haven't yet seen the data to prove it. I wish instead of just judging a class by the number of superstars (3 = strong, 1 = weak), that someone would measure draft classes by average production or even just career minutes played. So much of it is opportunity anyway. We know this in Utah. We'll have to listen to people calling Kanter and Favors busts, as if they haven't earned more minutes.

For now, however, GMs will allow the media to call entire draft classes weak because it makes their job easier. They have an excuse when they make a bad pick. But I bet good GMs really know that there is talent to be found in this draft, and hopefully this makes trading up a little easier.

I'm going to rep the **** out of this post later.

This guy is as smart as his avy looks.

Are these two posts srsly srs?? Hahahaha..
I enjoy mct's posts, but to cherry pick one or two names to prove the strength and weakness of each draft is comedy at best and intellectually dishonest at worst.

It may be fun to cherry pick one or two others from each of these drafts to 'prove' the exact opposite is true.. but the contrarians and conspiracy theorists here won't want to believe more conventional wisdom.

Oh.. and GOOD MORNING!!!
 
Oops.. I forgot to give props to mct on the idea of combining career minutes/productions to gauge strength of class. It would take way too long to wait for the data, but way cool idea.
 
Are these two posts srsly srs?? Hahahaha..
I enjoy mct's posts, but to cherry pick one or two names to prove the strength and weakness of each draft is comedy at best and intellectually dishonest at worst.

It may be fun to cherry pick one or two others from each of these drafts to 'prove' the exact opposite is true.. but the contrarians and conspiracy theorists here won't want to believe more conventional wisdom.

Oh.. and GOOD MORNING!!!

His basic point is that we (as human beings) arent good enough at scouting to just say definitively that a certain draft is totally going to suck.

There will be plenty of good players to come out of this draft.

The 2011 draft was universally lauded as the end of the freaking world, and there are several good players from that draft...

Kyrie Irving
Enes Kanter
Tristan Thompson
Jonas Valanciunas
Klay Thompson
Alec Burks
Kawhi Leonard
Nikola Vucevic
Tobias Harris
Kenneth Faried
 
Of course it is too early to tell if the class of 2013 will be a terrible class, but it certainly seems like it doesn't have the sure superstars in it. I think most GMs judge drafts by the number of franchise type players or potential all-stars. No one thought Lillard was going to be this good (ROY). I agree that depth can make a draft just as good as a draft with a few superstars and nothing else.

I think the Jazz have an opportunity to fill some holes on their roster. Jazz need to fill roster spots with solid role players and hope they find a diamond in the rough (Wes Matthews/Millsap). I know Wes wasn't drafted but he still shows how draft class can be better than anticipated because some players are undervalued. I think there is some talent in this draft class but I am just glad the Jazz don't have a top 3 pick this year. I think there isn't really much difference between number 3 and number 10.
 
Are these two posts srsly srs?? Hahahaha..
I enjoy mct's posts, but to cherry pick one or two names to prove the strength and weakness of each draft is comedy at best and intellectually dishonest at worst.

It may be fun to cherry pick one or two others from each of these drafts to 'prove' the exact opposite is true.. but the contrarians and conspiracy theorists here won't want to believe more conventional wisdom.

Oh.. and GOOD MORNING!!!
You're right. I was a bit hypocritical in my argument. Sorry.

I'm just saying that an entire draft class shouldn't be judged by the name at the top of it. So there isn't any Anthony Davis in 2013, why do we care? It's not like we're picking first.

Knowing what we know now, is there anyone here who would trade the 13th pick in this draft for the 13th pick in last one? Keep in mind all those players who returned to college because of the lockout.

I'll try to be less intellectually dishonest. I know we wouldn't have to pick Kendall Marshall. We could have John Henson, Mo Harkless, Tyler Zeller, Terrence Jones, or Jared Sullinger.

The PG options have to be better this year (Burke *fingers crossed, MCW, McCollum, Goodwin), but there will even be some bigs available with legit size and skill, both projects and polished: Olynyk, Austin, WCS, Poythress, McAdoo, Robinson, Adams, Saric.

I realize potential is always more enticing than the "morning after" a rookie year, so I could be way off, but I'm going to choose to remain excited about this draft.

2013 is a great year to be picking late lottery!
 
FWIW, I get both sides of the debate. I tend to get on my high horse sometimes (though I hide it REALLY well) because I have been following HS bb players for 20+ years, am very connected to the scouts, college coaches, etc .. and hear all the real assessments rather than what is spun to the media.. and in turn, spun to listeners.

Because I have watched most of these kids play for years prior to them even being first mentioned in any draft context, I certainly have fairly strong opinions. I have been right about players FAR more than wrong.. but have certainly enjoyed my share of misses.

I have been hyping next year's class for 3 years now. As far as this coming draft class.. I'm not just saying there's no superstar at the top, I am saying it is generally very weak, top to bottom. I have also said it will turn out it's share of good players.. but it is less predictable than most.. the winners of this draft will have a higher element of luck on their side, imo.

Of course I can be wrong, way wrong, but I am saying, emphatically, this is more than a hunch.
 
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