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Following potential 2015 draftees

Catchall said:
Maybe I'm not reading it right, but it looked like this guy projected Lillard as 82% likely to bust, 4% to be a stud and 0% likely to become a star.
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idiot said:
I think the model is worth talking about more, and I've brought it up a time or two here before. In theory, I like what he's trying to do and have no reason to think that he's not going about it in methodologically appropriate ways.

I want more explanation on the claim that it's outperformed GMs' actual picks, however. I've not seen a good explanation/methodology on this, though perhaps I haven't looked hard enough. And like Catchall says, it's not hard to find examples where the model flames out spectacularly on certain players. There's also too much discrepancy between his Expected model and his stars/studs/starters/etc. model for me to really get comfortable saying I understand how to interpret the rankings.
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Oh totally there are some funky ones in there, but there are some pretty good calls in there too. It looks like he catches Euros pretty well considering how high he had Kirilenko, Dirk, and T. Parker!
 
Winslow is playing himself into top 4 contention. If he lasts to 6, Jazz need to give up whatever future picks necessary to get him. (#11, 2016 1st, GS 2017 first and some seconds). Take on salary and give up Booker if needed. I like Booker, but think Winslow can play time as a stretch 4 when needed in the secont unit and lock down D at 3 with the starters.
 
sgjazzfan said:
Winslow is playing himself into top 4 contention. If he lasts to 6, Jazz need to give up whatever future picks necessary to get him. (#11, 2016 1st, GS 2017 first and some seconds). Take on salary and give up Booker if needed. I like Booker, but think Winslow can play time as a stretch 4 when needed in the secont unit and lock down D at 3 with the starters.
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Yep, I was pretty high on him here while everybody harsh on him and I hoped he'd be the one to slip to us, but the chances of that happening right now are not good at all..
 
stitches said:
Yep, I was pretty high on him here while everybody harsh on him and I hoped he'd be the one to slip to us, but the chances of that happening right now are not good at all..
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Yep. I never got to see him play, and read that he had good size and defense, but wasn't a great shooter or offensive player. He may not have a midrange game, but he can get to the rim and finish, and stroke it from 3. Can't imagine a better fit for Utah (except Leonard who is not available and will be making a max contract). If they don't get him, johnson or Hezonja I'd take DMC if available in FA. Over pay for 3 years while we still have the rest of our guys under contract.
 
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