Following potential 2015 draftees

[spycam1]

Seone has to bust right? The mock drafts are never 100% perfect. So I figure might as well try and identify what's wrong with the consensus rankings.

I'm not all that impressed with Kristaps or WCS either.

I think with Okafor we have seen this act before. Not all that athletic. Back to the basket, no defense, and stupid face. He'll probably be ok on like a Carlos Boozer level. I wouldn't pick him top that's for sure. There are some other players there that I like better.

I've never been totally sold on Porz or WCS either.

 

[BENTLEY]

Feel the same way. Lyles, Grant, Dekker, Jones... just some of the players that are likely to be available at our pick that I'm not going to be crazy about.

Before the draft we should do a thread with "I love it", "I'm OK with it", "I don't hate it, but...", "I kinda hate it"

Right now for me the prospects that we could possibly land at 12 would go like this:

I love it - Stanley Johnson, Myles Turner
I'm OK with it - Devin Booker, Kelly Oubre, Bobby Portis, Frank Kaminsky, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Kevon Looney
I don't hate it, but... - Sam Dekker, Cameron Payne(more because of fit and us not needing yet another rookie PG)
I kinda hate it - Trey Lyles, Jerian Grant, Tyus Jones

I don't love anyone 'cause I don't know enough. I don't really hate anyone either. There's some I might like a little better than others but I have so much confidence in the current front office that I'll probably love whoever they pick. But I hope it's not Lyles.

 

[BENTLEY]

I don't know about Porzingis but I'm open to him being awesome. Same goes for Hezonja.

I know a little more about Turner, Portis, and Kaminsky and I like all of 'em.

I used to love Johnson. I admit when his measurements were recorded that was probably when my love took a hit. But I'm not necessarily down on him. Not sure.

I like Booker, but I'd lean toward Frank instead.

 

[The Midnight]

Rashad Vaughn / Trevor Ariza

 

[idiot]

Here's one more analytical projection model:

https://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/04/17/final-2015-cpr-ratings/

Interesting: Looney, Portis, Turner, Payne, DeAndre Bembry(? - seems like he's returning to school) project really high. Booker, WCS, Sam Dekker not high at all... Oubre and Kaminsky - middling projection.

Thanks for the link. Let me try to add a little bit more based on my interpretation of what this model is trying to do:

The model's innovation is that it tries to factor in inconsistency more than other models (which probably don't do it much at all). The modeler (Stephen Shea) believes that part of the problem in trying to get success from draft modeling is that college freshmen (in particular) are very inconsistent. Great games might be followed up by a couple duds. Thus using per game or per minute averages doesn't really give us the true likelihood of success (since inconsistency is usually mitigated with age/experience). So he tries to factor this in mathematically.

Like most other modeling, it tries to factor in age/college class. Unlike Vashro (and I think Pelton), Shea doesn't really use Combine measurements, but relies solely on box score data. Like other mathematical modeling, it can't account for work ethic or personality factors.

Shea has noted in a few posts that it's entirely possible the model is overestimating players with high 3pt % on relatively few attempts (Portis, Looney) especially if there's reason to believe those %s aren't true representations of their shooting ability, and that he believes Kentucky's players are underestimated because of the depth of that team this year. Like any good modeler, Shea doesn't believe that the results should be considered as the final answer, but that they can be a useful guide along with other data.

In other posts besides the one mentioned above, he's given a kind of yardstick on how current NBA players scored (I presume that he believes these "yardstick" scores to be basically accurate, though I'm not totally sure):

10+ clear top-notch player in the NBA (KD, AD, Carmelo, Duncan, Love, etc -- KD and AD were both above 20)
8.9 Paul George
7.6 Andrew Wiggins
6.0 MCW
3.8 Aaron Gordon
2.8 Harrison Barnes
1.8 Dion Waiters

This year's class is rated thus:
10.4 Russell
9.1 Okafor
7.6 Towns
7.1 Looney
6.5 Portis
6.4 Turner
6.2 Payne
5.6 Johnson
5.5 Jones
5.2 Winslow
5.1 Hunter
5.0 Wood
4.7 Rozier
Among others (the model doesn't rank prospects who didn't play college ball, though he has a few players in the rankings who didn't keep their names in the 2015 draft):
#17 3.4 Kaminsky
#19 3.3 Oubre
#31 2.2 Booker
#41 1.8 J. Anderson
#43 1.7 Hollis-Jefferson
#48 1.5 Lyles
#51 1.3 Dekker

For comparison, last year's top-21 prospects:
11.2 Parker
8.5 Smart
7.6 Wiggins
6.7 Vonleh
6.3 Embiid
6.3 Ennis
5.8 Napier
5.4 Anderson
5.4 Adams
4.9 Randle
4.9 Warren
4.0 Harris
4.0 McDaniels
4.0 Young
3.6 Gordon
3.1 McDermott
3.1 Austin
2.7 Payton
2.7 Carson
2.2 Stauskas
2.2 Hood

 

[idiot]

A real interesting site from among the draft modeling sites mentioned on one of Spycam's earlier posts:

https://counting-the-baskets.typepad.com/my-blog/

It's interesting not because it offers a different concept behind the modeling (it might, but the explanations I find aren't terribly helpful in this regard), but because the site contains some really cool graphic (often interactive) comparisons of prospects' strengths/weaknesses/game styles, etc.

For what it's worth, this model has the following rankings:
Okafor
Towns
Jones
Russell
Looney
Vezenkov
Johnson
Kaminsky
Wright
Turner
Winslow
Portis
Payne
Alexander

Among others:
#18 Oubre
#20 Dekker
#32 Booker
#37 Lyles
#39 Hollis-Jefferson
J. Anderson (not ranked, but much lower total score than anyone in top 40)

 

[BTP]

They have some very similar traits coming out of college indeed. I was very high on him last year. I thought he was a steal for the Hornets at 9. I think I even had us picking him in one of my mocks before the draft(which right now seem ridiculous) I still think he's a good prospect. I wonder what the horncats are going to do with him.

Vonleh was more strictly a 4 and had low bbiq. I think he was a monster defensively though and thought he can stretch the floor for us(both were things we needed a lot at the time). He was a bit of a black hole on offense and didn't have a good feel for the game. I think Looney has much better feel and bball IQ. He's much skinnier than Vonleh coming out of college though. I am still not sure what position he plays in the NBA. To me he looks like a 4 much more than a 3, but he does have the quickness and length to get switched on smaller players(something our defensive system will probably rely on a lot in the future). His offensive skill level is not very high right now though.

Good to hear. There's a lot similar about their situations. Yogi Ferrell - Bryce Alford; Tom Crean - Steve Alford ; high per minute / advanced production. Vonleh had a lot of development from the beginning to the end of the season.

I'm still optimistic about Vonleh and pimped him pretty hard before last draft. I think his skillset is really rare. Besides his injury luck last season, he's still crazy young. In that "super young quartet" lottery power circle of Aaron Gordon, James Young, him and Exum.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

Just started watching video highlights of guys that are being considered as possible picks. So far I've watched vids from Lyles Turner WCS and Booker.

I was a little underwhelmed watching Bookers highlights. It hot me wondering because I've always kinda compared Booker to Rodney Hood. Smooth athlete that has a sweet stroke, and thought their playing styles were similar. Anyways, I decided to watch highlights of hood during his year at Duke and. The difference in skill was staggering. I know highlights aren't the best way to scout someone but it's caused me to fall off the Booker bandwagon. I think he may only project as a spot up shooter at the next level. Now I don't think I'd touch him till the 18-20 range.

Thoughts?

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

Is it possible scouts ore under rating Kaminsky due to playing at Wisconsin for 4 years? I can't shake the feeling that he's the steal of the draft and has a chance to be the best player overall.

Has great foot work great passer great 3pt shooter and just has so many dimensions to his game looks like a young Dirk. Does a lot of the things he used to do.

 

[Jazz4ever]

Is it possible scouts ore under rating Kaminsky due to playing at Wisconsin for 4 years? I can't shake the feeling that he's the steal of the draft and has a chance to be the best player overall.

Has great foot work great passer great 3pt shooter and just has so many dimensions to his game looks like a young Dirk. Does a lot of the things he used to do.

Possibly, the track record is not good for these players. McDermott's rough first year in Chicago is a stark reminder. That said, Kaminsky has a "feel for the game" element you just can't teach. He had two outstanding years back to back. He did not falter in the tournament either, generally outplaying many NBA future bigs.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

Possibly, the track record is not good for these players. McDermott's rough first year in Chicago is a stark reminder. That said, Kaminsky has a "feel for the game" element you just can't teach. He had two outstanding years back to back. He did not falter in the tournament either, generally outplaying many NBA future bigs.

And beat Kentucky


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[Thee Jazz Fan]

Possibly, the track record is not good for these players. McDermott's rough first year in Chicago is a stark reminder. That said, Kaminsky has a "feel for the game" element you just can't teach. He had two outstanding years back to back. He did not falter in the tournament either, generally outplaying many NBA future bigs.

I don't think u can judge McDermott's first year really. Injury really set him back