Following potential 2015 draftees
- Thread starter Dr. Jones
- Start date
There is a difference between drafting a guy and forgoing other players and trading for a player.
Locke doesn't hate Kaminksy, he just doesn't like drafting him in the lottery.
How good a year is it to be drafting 12th? Hard to predict with certainty, but at least one measure I checked suggests it could be a very good year.
According to Layne Vashro's models (if anyone has access to multiple-year data from other modelers, please chime in), the average EWP (his main measure) score for his 12th-rated prospect over the last 10 years has been 4.1. This year his 12th-rated prospect's EWP is 5.7 (which equates to his 5th-rated EWP prospect in an average year). For the 15th-rated prospect, the 10 year average is 3.8, but this year it's 4.8. No other year in the last 10 has been close to as high for the 12th or 15th ranked prospects as this year.
To put it another way, we have realistic chances of drafting the #25 (Johnson), #26 (Looney), #28 (Kaminsky), #40 (Oubre), #48 (Turner), or #61 (RHJ) rated EWP player over the last 10 years. So just divide the 10-year ranking by 10 to get the ranking they would be in an average year. (This is not even to mention Wright or Jones, who are also in this range).
Of the players whose EWP ranked higher than Stanley Johnson on this 10 year list:
10 have become very good players (I'm including those who would fit in this category if not injured)
2 have become what I'd consider "meh" players (decent contributors, but nothing more)
2 have busted
9 are too soon to make that determination
(looks like I may have missed one player, but I'm not going back to check -- this quick approximation is probably sufficient)
Of the players whose EWP scores ranked between Johnson and RHJ's:
14 players became very good
8 players became "meh"
1 busted
13 are too early to call
(The division between very good and meh was a little tougher in this group, with players like Harrison Barnes, Tristan Thompson, Ty Lawson, Enes Kanter, and Jonas Valenciunus sitting near the dividing line)
So if Vashro's measure allows for reliable year-to-year comparisons, there's reason to be quite optimistic about what's available to us at #12 this year.
According to Layne Vashro's models (if anyone has access to multiple-year data from other modelers, please chime in), the average EWP (his main measure) score for his 12th-rated prospect over the last 10 years has been 4.1. This year his 12th-rated prospect's EWP is 5.7 (which equates to his 5th-rated EWP prospect in an average year). For the 15th-rated prospect, the 10 year average is 3.8, but this year it's 4.8. No other year in the last 10 has been close to as high for the 12th or 15th ranked prospects as this year.
To put it another way, we have realistic chances of drafting the #25 (Johnson), #26 (Looney), #28 (Kaminsky), #40 (Oubre), #48 (Turner), or #61 (RHJ) rated EWP player over the last 10 years. So just divide the 10-year ranking by 10 to get the ranking they would be in an average year. (This is not even to mention Wright or Jones, who are also in this range).
Of the players whose EWP ranked higher than Stanley Johnson on this 10 year list:
10 have become very good players (I'm including those who would fit in this category if not injured)
2 have become what I'd consider "meh" players (decent contributors, but nothing more)
2 have busted
9 are too soon to make that determination
(looks like I may have missed one player, but I'm not going back to check -- this quick approximation is probably sufficient)
Of the players whose EWP scores ranked between Johnson and RHJ's:
14 players became very good
8 players became "meh"
1 busted
13 are too early to call
(The division between very good and meh was a little tougher in this group, with players like Harrison Barnes, Tristan Thompson, Ty Lawson, Enes Kanter, and Jonas Valenciunus sitting near the dividing line)
So if Vashro's measure allows for reliable year-to-year comparisons, there's reason to be quite optimistic about what's available to us at #12 this year.
Game6Conley
Well-Known Member
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news; But all 3 are just biased homers, relying on varying degrees of sensationalism and selective memory...
(let that waft for a moment)
Cy had Wiggins rated as what again?? the 4th or 5th best player in the draft?? he posted ad nauseam about why he preferred 'above-average athlete' Aaron Gordon's "intangibles", no??? I specifically said that if you take a look at the 3pt shooting slump from Aaron Gordon in conference play, it reveals a trend that's probably unsustainable. lo and behold his 3pt shooting fell off a cliff the 2nd half of the year, connecting at under a 25% clip.
A player this board was almost unanimously sour on, Jerami Grant, was someone early in the process that I thought could do most everything Gordon could.. looking back was that far off??? I also had Jerami in the 1st round when many lost faith.. (some of you may remember I actually repped Jerian Grant last year too, I posted the "55 seconds of Jerian Grant" vid multiple times and said this guy has great upside for a player projected in the 50's..)
Jordan Adams is a better prospect than Zach LaVine? who's too skinny and not worthy of a 2nd round pick, right??? yall griefed the **** out of any LaVine supporter for months straight and even held on like Givony, til the last minute to hedge on Zach. Meanwhile I posted that he looked like a lottery pick exactly 1 day after his 21pt showing vs nevada, back when Zach was Givony's 73rd rated freshman in the class..
Cy echo'd what many were already saying about Elfrid Payton, but made a point to repeat that everyone was sleeping on his teammate Shawn Long, who he thought was a sleeper 1st round pick... It should be noted Orlando improved a whopping 2 wins in the hyper-competitive eastern conference with these gamechangers.
PKM fell head over heels for Cleanthony Early.. But at least had Embiid #1, who's the only other player that should've even been in discussion for the top pick.
If you throw enough **** at a wall, some of it will stick.
BTW when i stopped being a Knicks fan all those years ago, I thought they wouldn't be able to compete with LeBron, who has now won the east every year since, Ive also had my $$ on his team to win the east every year since...
Game6Conley
Well-Known Member
Anyways, whats the consensus around here on the black John Turturro - Cameron Payne??
I think he's a better prospect than Trey, for sure his feel for the game is superior. his shooting mechanics are the closest you will find to Steph's in this draft, super quick release. I got a chance to see his last few full games because I follow this type of ****, and was very impressed with the way he interprets the defense, definite starter potential IMO, I'd take him over Tyus Jones or Jerian Grant.
I think he's a better prospect than Trey, for sure his feel for the game is superior. his shooting mechanics are the closest you will find to Steph's in this draft, super quick release. I got a chance to see his last few full games because I follow this type of ****, and was very impressed with the way he interprets the defense, definite starter potential IMO, I'd take him over Tyus Jones or Jerian Grant.
I agree, but doubt we take a PG at 12.
We've all had our bad moments. Alex Len ring a bell? I think everyone's opinion is worth something to the discussion and nobody will ever be right on every player.
Thee Jazz Fan
Well-Known Member
I like Pain as well. However I also like Grant and Wright and we could trade back to get one of them. I think they are better fits as in my opinion think Exum is going to be a star once he matures and fills out physically. Wright and Grant are bigger and can guard sg's and fit into the team concept of defense. Defensively imagine wright and Exum as a defensive tandem. Wright might me the premier none big defender in the draft. On top of that we could get a third first rounder in 2017. I like the idea of three picks in the first round.
Thee Jazz Fan
Well-Known Member
Or two picks in 16, 17, and 18. 6 firsts in three years. Obviously some of those would be used in trades. Gives DL lots of options for making the Jazz better and keep them relevant.
Thee Jazz Fan
Well-Known Member
Exactly my point
Jazz4ever
Well-Known Member
Not too much info on him. Very explosive, high risk, high reward. DX has us taking him at 42 probably as a draft and stasher. Not sure he lasts that long.