Justin Anderson has improved his jump shot immeasurably this season. (USATSI)
Before No. 3 Virginia's 52-47 victory vs. Louisville on Saturday, junior guard/forward Justin Anderson was having a breakthrough season and emerging as a solid NBA prospect.
However, there seems to have been a wrench thrown into whatever possible plans Anderson could have for this season. In the first half vs. the Cardinals, Anderson fractured a finger on his left shooting hand, and after surgery on Sunday, will miss at least four weeks - and maybe as much as six weeks.
Virginia coach Tony Bennett said in his Monday morning teleconference that the surgery went well, and should have no lasting impact on Anderson. That is great news for the Wahoos, as having even having Anderson's presence paramount to its hopes of going far in the tournament.
It's also great news for Anderson on an individual level, as, despite the injury, there is an awful lot to like about him as an NBA prospect.
He's big and long at 6-foot-6 with a 6-11 wingspan, and has a strong body that looks NBA-ready from day one. His athleticism is superb, with strong quickness for a small forward and great explosiveness vertically. Plus, playing under Bennett has instilled in him strong defensive principles. And while there may be a bit of a transition going from playing the pack-line to a more straight man-to-man concept, those principles should allow Anderson to become a useful team defender at worst, and a legitimately really good defender at best.
While there are a few downsides to his game -- his ball-handling ability needs work, for one, as he's still mostly a two-dribble/straight-line driver -- Anderson's draft stock will mostly hinge on whether or not you buy one skill of his.
His shooting.
The question about Anderson's shooting is something that is likely being asked around front offices, as it's the difference between him being a first-round pick and a borderline prospect. And the reason it's a question at all is because the wing's shooting went from question mark to strength all within the course of a year.
In 2013-14, Anderson was a 29 percent 3-point shooter on 102 attempts. However, this season Anderson has seen that percentage leap to 48 percent. Check out these two shot charts from ShotAnalytics.com (which, by the way, is a website well-worth a subscription) that show how much more effective he's been behind the arc this season:
On the left is Anderson's 2014-15 season, and on the right is his 2013-14 season. As you an undoubtedly see, there's a pretty big difference in his shooting efficiency. There's only one big difference in the types of shots he's taking this season, so largely it seems like we can notch this up to one of two things:
1. A rather large statistical anomaly that has seen Anderson make nearly 50 percent of his 3s this season, up from 29 percent last year. Or...
2. Anderson is making more shots due to his improvement as a shooter.
Below, I'm going to break down why I believe Option 2 is the answer:
Before looking at his actual shot, let's note one thing: Anderson is taking more corner 3s this season, which seems to be a shot that he's always been comfortable taking. Now, he's knocking it down at a 55 percent clip this season compared to a 39 percent clip last year. But it's still something that he's shown to be able to shoot efficiently in the past. Taking more corner 3s seems to have helped Anderson, and that ability is something that will carry over to the NBA as the corner 3 is one of the most efficient shots in that league along with the lay-up/dunk.
But outside of a slightly different shot distribution that better fits his skill, what has changed about Anderson's shot mechanically to make him more effective? Let's take a look.
Here's an example of his shot from the 2013-14 season.
There's just a lot going on here for a simple catch-and-shoot shot. Look at the way he sets up for this shot. Instead of squaring his feet to the rim, he has his feet squared toward Anthony Gill prior to the pass. He resets his feet, brings the ball down below his waist, and brings the ball back up to a point above his head (breaking the pivotal 90-degree angle that you want with your elbow on your shot), and then releases. It's a "loud" shot, so to speak, with a lot of moving pieces. Plus, his follow through is high toward the sky, as opposed to strong toward the rim. Then there's the matter of his balance. Look at where he takes off from, and then look at where he lands. Typically, the goal should be to land in a similar spot to where you took off from. However, Anderson kicks out his feet to a point where the left one even lands in front of the 3-point arc.
So yeah, just a lot of moving pieces that don't need to be there. And it's something that he clearly realized in the offseason, as he discussed improving his shot mechanics in the offseason in a video he did regarding his success this season with Virginia's athletic department midway through January.
"Keeping my elbow in, keeping that 90-degree elbow, with balance. Keeping your eyes on the rim and not following the ball. Not dipping the ball as much. Staying strongly on the release, landing where you started. It's just a bunch of little technical things that many people may not take pride in, but I think it helps take your game to the next level when you start getting into the nitty gritty of your shot."
Here's what his shot looks like today, and it's a marked difference.
Just look at how much quieter the mechanics are here on a shot from the same spot. Anderson gets his feet set right at the rim before the catch this time all in one fluid motion. He still brings the ball down a bit further than you'd like after the catch, but the rest of it is picturesque. The release point is similar, but the elbow is in at a much better 90-degree angle, and his follow through is stronger toward the rim. But most importantly, the lower half of his mechanics are much better, jumping much straighter in the air, and landing in a similar spot to where he took the shot. For a player who gets the type of elevation that he does on his shot, it's impressive that he's able to land as softly and with as much balance as he does now. Things just look simpler here than in 2013-14.
And these veritable improvements in his mechanics make me believe that Anderson's sharp-shooting is not an aberration. Sure, he might not be a 50 percent shooter from deep. But with that fluid, simple movement and a confident release, I don't see any reason why he couldn't be a 40-percent 3-point shooter on the college level, and maybe even eventually reach that level in the NBA.
Moving back toward the present term and Virginia's season, even if the injury hurts his shooting percentages, the gravitational pull Anderson has on the defense due to the shooting he displayed this season should be enough to open up lanes for other players, which is key to the Cavaliers getting the offense to match their defense. And, on an individual level, if there seems to be any indication that the finger affecting his shot and making him miss more than he has this season, Anderson could return to school so as to avoid possibly shooting poorly in workouts and lowering his draft stock.
But even if his shooting is affected in the short term -- which is only a possibility and not a certitude -- it seems the injury will not be a long-term issue. The mechanical improvements that Anderson made this offseason are far more important than any hand injury could be, and they should have more of a lasting impact on the way he shoots the ball into the future.
That shooting ability -- along with his defensive play, athleticism and smart decision-making (his 10 percent turnover rate is seventh in the ACC right now) -- should make Anderson a particularly hot commodity on draft night. NBA teams crave that kind of skillset and ability to space the floor -- look at how the Hawks, Warriors, Spurs and Blazers utilize floor-spacers who make smart choices -- and Anderson's other ancillary skills should be enough to make him a first-round pick when the junior chooses to declare.
