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Following potential 2015 draftees

Thats interesting that trey could net us a first. Chicago has been pretty good at grabbing guys in the late first. Ill bet theyd want more than just burke. Would you do Trey and both our 2nds for the 22nd pick?
 
Eminence said:
I'm honestly confused where the idea Kaminsky is a terrible defender is coming from, his potential is obviously lower than Towns/WCS on that end, but I though he held up just fine against everyone he played this year.
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It comes from him being like 230 pounds and that he's not that great of a shot blocker.
 
Apologies: In an earlier post (#12427), I made a mistake in computing how many games play throughout their career based on draft age.

Here's the correct numbers (effective games = total minutes/48):
Players drafted in calendar year they turned 18: 144
19: 213
20: 240
21: 169
22: 145
23: 122
24: 90
25: 20

But because this can be greatly skewed based on where a player was drafted (older players generally drafted lower, therefore it makes sense that they play total fewer "games."), I came up with another measure to show the risk/reward scenario for drafting players at certain ages. This is based on exceeding the 75th percentile of all draftees in expected total win shares, or failing to reach the 25th percentile:

18 year olds: 40% expected about 75th percentile (based on draft position), 40% reached that level; 30% expected to be below 75th percentile, 50% were below.
19: 31% expected, 42% actual above 75th; 8% expected, 42% actual below 25th
20: 40% expected, 45% actual above 75th; 13% expected, 36% actual below 25th
21: 25% expected, 29% actual above 75th; 21% expected, 54% actual below 25th
22: 26% expected, 27% actual above 75th; 27% expected, 60% actual below 25th
23: 17% expected, 17% actual above 75th; 30% expected, 67% actual below 25th
24: 20% expected, 10% actual above 75th; 45% expected, 80% actual below 25th

So no real surprises compared to conventional wisdom. This goes along pretty well with what I wrote in the earlier post. If you want someone to exceed their draft position, you're somewhat more likely to find that with a 19 or 20 year old. 19 year olds are more risky, but carry somewhat higher likelihood of a higher reward.
 
Carbon13 said:
Thats interesting that trey could net us a first. Chicago has been pretty good at grabbing guys in the late first. Ill bet theyd want more than just burke. Would you do Trey and both our 2nds for the 22nd pick?
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Ummmm. Yeah. A good front office will get a shot to land an excellent player at #22 this year. BPA at 12, BPA at 22 and then fill holes in free agency. I'd do that deal in a heartbeat and throw some cash in for good measure.

Roll the dice on Exum, Burks and Cotton manning PG and come away with one of Turner, Kaninsky or Looney (at 12) and any of Hunter, RHJ or Justin Anderson (at 22) - my team just got a lot better.

Or say Stanley Johnson falls to 12. . . then I take 22 and my future pick next year to move up to grab a big. Johnson plus any of Turner, Kaminsky, Looney or Portis is even better - and it hasn't really cost me that much (Burke and a likely low pick next year.)
 
I don't think Burke is as terrible as this board has made him out to be. I say that as one of the first people to not like Trey, but now I find myself trying to defend him a little bit, because this board has made him out to be complete trash and might as well be cut because he has zero trade value. I don't think that's how the NBA or the Jazz FO office view him. He is still young and can still improve, and has shown at times to be a good player, just one without huge upside, but a good player none the less. We have seen unathletic and short players succeed before.

I really don't expect the Jazz to just be throwing Trey in trades as trade fodder, and I don't think he has zero interest around the league. I bet a late first rounder could easily be had for Trey.
 
Doublea said:
It comes from him being like 230 pounds and that he's not that great of a shot blocker.
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I kind of see it in the sense that defense is easily his biggest concern, but comparing him to Kanter just doesn't make sense to me. He shows good effort, rotates well, and overall was a positive defender at the collegiate level. Jah did nothing against him in the championship game (Kaminsky did a great job of positioning to me).
 
I think Kaminsky will be a better defender than Kanter. He looks more agile, and gives more effort.

Also, I'm not so worried about his defense anyways. We would be drafting him for his offense. We already have two bigs that are great at defense. If we didn't then I would be concerned and would probably not want to draft him. But the way are team sits, he seems like a good fit.
 
I say we cash in our assets and move up to get Johnson. I think the Hornets and he Pistons could be trade partners. I think he will be a better pro than Winslow.
 
Carbon13 said:
Thats interesting that trey could net us a first. Chicago has been pretty good at grabbing guys in the late first. Ill bet theyd want more than just burke. Would you do Trey and both our 2nds for the 22nd pick?
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I would do it
 
zyzz said:
The Trade and Transactions board on RealGM seems to (surprisingly) think Trey Burke is worth a 1st round pick in the 20s. Do you think Chicago would trade the 22nd pick for Burke?

Kirk Hinrich is probably leaving and even though Trey gets a lot of hate, he can score in bunches and can run an offense without turning the ball over. Then Utah can take a Justin Anderson/RJ Hunter/RHJ/whoever is left. Or they could trade the 12 and 22 and whatever else to move up, but I have no idea how the timing would work on that.
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12 and 22 would be an interesting way to move up to 8th without giving up a core piece. They have to consolidate some of these picks.
 
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