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Following potential 2015 draftees

spycam1 said:
What were past draft prospects EWP? Has it shown to have any merit? Or just some other ******** stat?
Click to expand...
Here's the 2013 draft:
1 Anthony Bennett 4.8
2 Victor Oladipo 5.3
3 Otto Porter 9.4
4 Cody Zeller 10
5 Alex Len 6.3
6 Nerlens Noel 17.9
7 Ben McLemore 5.2
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 7.2
9 Trey Burke 7.2
10 C.J. McCollum 4.1
11 Michael Carter-Williams 8.5
12 Steven Adams 6.4
13 Kelly Olynyk 3.5
14 Shabazz Muhammad 0.4
15 Giannis Antetokounmpo 1.6
16 Lucas Nogueira 10.1
17 Dennis Schroder 1.9
18 Shane Larkin 3.7
19 Sergey Karasev 5.1
20 Tony Snell 0.9
21 Gorgui Dieng 2.9
22 Mason Plumlee 3.9
23 Solomon Hill 1.4
24 Tim Hardaway '13 2.6
25 Reggie Bullock 2.6
26 Andre Roberson 7
27 Rudy Gobert 6.2
28 Livio Jean-Charles 2.2
29 Archie Goodwin 3.9
30 Nemanja Nedovic 1.8
Click to expand...

2012:
1 Anthony Davis 18.6
2 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 9.3
3 Bradley Beal 8.3
4 Dion Waiters 4.2
5 Thomas Robinson 5.5
6 Damian Lillard 1.9
7 Harrison Barnes 5.5
8 Terrence Ross 1.7
9 Andre Drummond 7.8
10 Austin Rivers 1.2
11 Meyers Leonard 3.8
12 Jeremy Lamb 5
13 Kendall Marshall 6.8
14 John Henson 5.9
15 Maurice Harkless 6
16 Royce White
17 Tyler Zeller 3.9
18 Terrence Jones 8.6
19 Andrew Nicholson 1.5
20 Evan Fournier 4.4
21 Jared Sullinger 10.2
22 Fab Melo 0.8
23 John Jenkins 1.7
24 Jared Cunningham 2.3
25 Tony Wroten 5.8
26 Miles Plumlee 0.4
27 Arnett Moultrie 3.2
28 Perry Jones 2.2
29 Marquis Teague 3.4
30 Festus Ezeli 1.2

34 Jae Crowder 6.8
35 Draymond Green 7.6
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2011:
1 Kyrie Irving 12.3
2 Derrick Williams 6.8
3 Enes Kanter 13
4 Tristan Thompson 6.8
5 Jonas Valanciunas 13.4
6 Jan Vesely 5.8
7 Bismack Biyombo 10.3
8 Brandon Knight 4.7
9 Kemba Walker 5.3
10 Jimmer Fredette 1.7
11 Klay Thompson 4.3
12 Alec Burks 3.9
13 Markieff Morris 4
14 Marcus Morris 3.4
15 Kawhi Leonard 8.3
16 Nikola Vucevic 5.1
17 Iman Shumpert 4.4
18 Chris Singleton 4.7
19 Tobias Harris 3.9
20 Donatas Motiejunas 4.7
21 Nolan Smith 0.5
22 Kenneth Faried 6.7
23 Nikola Mirotic 9
24 Reggie Jackson 3
25 MarShon Brooks 0.9
26 Jordan Hamilton 5.4
27 JaJuan Johnson 1.5
28 Norris Cole 0.1
29 Cory Joseph 3.4
30 Jimmy Butler 2
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I have a concern about UK this year.

If this team can lose a game in the tourney, anyone can;

Wall
Bledsoe
Deandre Liggins
Patrick Patterson
Cousins
 
PKM said:
I have a concern about UK this year.

If this team can lose a game in the tourney, anyone can;

Wall
Bledsoe
Deandre Liggins
Patrick Patterson
Cousins
Click to expand...

That's a very raw, young team. This year's squad is deeper, more refined, plays much better defense and has deep tourney experience.
 
QuinSnydersHair said:
That's a very raw, young team. This year's squad is deeper, more refined, plays much better defense and has deep tourney experience.
Click to expand...

Agree.. and not as talented.

And Liggins was a Soph and Patterson was a Jr. They should have walked through the tourney with ease.

This year's difference is unreal defense. I'll take it.
 
ec
 
stitches said:
Here's some projections by a model developed by @VJL_bball:

https://laynevashro.shinyapps.io/preds/

Myles Turner projects to be a monster(18.5). Other players projecting to be stars in the league are - Stanley Johnson(10.3), Tyus Jones and Jahlil Okafor(11.0), D'Angelo Russell(11.4) and Karl Towns(11.8). From the European players Hezonja and Porzingis project best...

The regular disclaimer for small sample sizes apply...
Click to expand...



Allow me to explain. That app actually has 2 models: the regular EWP and the HUM (Humble) model. They differ in the way they get to the final number, bur the major difference is that the Humble model takes in consideration the opinion of major mock drafters (Draftexpress and Chad Ford's big board). In some cases it will produce different numbers than the EWP model, but results should be mostly consistent. Both models compare the stats of an european of NCAA prospect to the stats similar players put up in the NBA, it's actually quite advanced and sophisticated. It also takes into account weight, height and combine athleticism values.

Here is how you interpret EWP values: EWP < 0 is a bust, 0<EWP<5 is a bench player, 5<EWP<10 is a starter and EWP > 10 is a star.


Some players the model correctly picked (as of recently): Rajon Rondo, Andre Drummond, Omer Asik, Jrue Holiday, Danny Green and Draymond Green, for instance. The model also correctly predicted international players like Dirk and the Gasol brothers, Toni Kukoc and even Manu Ginóbili.

However, the model also had some stinkers: failed to recognize Derrick Rose as a superstar (only gave him a 5.9 I believe), the EWP failed to recognize Damian Lillard although the Humble model recognized him, failed to declare Tyus Thomas as a bust (said he was a star, in fact). The model has a tendency to overrate undersized, underskilled power forwards.

As any mathmatical model, it eliminates context, so it should be used as an additional scouting tool and not the end all, be all of scouting. It doesn't take into account intangibles or the fact scoring is very, very hard to prefict going from college to pros (for instance, rebounding and shot blocking translate pretty well). It's always better than some subjetive eye test observations and crap shoot mock drafts: browse the results some more, you'll be surprised at how accurate most are.

Quick edit: the model also somewhat underrates athleticism if a prospect doesn't produce great numbers in college. That is why it underrates Rose but not John Wall.
 
Last edited:
PKM said:
I have a concern about UK this year.

If this team can lose a game in the tourney, anyone can;

Wall
Bledsoe
Deandre Liggins
Patrick Patterson
Cousins
Click to expand...

Team has two inside guys that were horrible defensively at their time. One is a on par, the other still a no show on defense today. Also I dont know who DeAndre Liggins is.
 
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