Following Potential 2025 Draftees

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Locke brought up Beal as a comparison and I definitely can see that. Tre plays in college very similarly to Beal does in the NBA. But one thing we do have to remember the NBA is not the NCAA. If you look at the player Beal was in college, he was actually a lot more like VJ. It's hard to imagine that now, but Beal wasn't the shooter he was back then and he was much more of an athlete. The NBA is much different from the NCAA and is obviously much more difficult. I've been looking back at previous prospects and it's pretty interesting to see just how much (or how little) players change over time.

Beal was considered a great shooter coming into college (which checks out because he was a high level shooter immediately in the NBA). Had a lot of Ray Allen comps but then came in a lot smaller than people expected.

So no, I really dont buy that Beal was closer to VJ than Tre.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think Beal is a good high end outcome comp for Tre. Think he might be a better shooter and bigger but maybe less good with the ball than Beal was at his peak.

 

[KqWIN]

Beal was considered a great shooter coming into college (which checks out because he was a high level shooter immediately in the NBA). Had a lot of Ray Allen comps but then came in a lot smaller than people expected.

So no, I really dont buy that Beal was closer to VJ than Tre.

It's important to remember that we're comparing 2012 to 2025, so the scale on shooting is different. But on paper, absolutely closer to VJ. Beal was not a super usage player in college and he had great peripheral indicators. You could take that as the numbers don't matter, or you could say that some of the numbers would have indicated some change.

Anyways, the point I'm getting at is that players often play a lot different in the NBA and in different roles. It's not always the best to assume a play can/will play in the same he does in college.

 

[KqWIN]

I think Beal is a good high end outcome comp for Tre. Think he might be a better shooter and bigger but maybe less good with the ball than Beal was at his peak.

I think he's more like Jamal Murray/Tyler Herro in the sense that he's lacking the physicality that Beal has/had. I'm a big believer that indicators are all intertwined and are useful outside in other contexts. For example, Beal was a good rebounder/stocks/FTr guy in college. Those are not things you would say have been big strengths in his career, but I do think it speaks to Beal's general athleticism. Beal is who he is because he's a killer shooter, but I think that athleticism that showed up in the peripheral numbers is absolutely a part of that.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Locke took a goodly amount of time today to talk about Tre Johnson again. Bodes well for the Jazz thinking they can take him. I don't agree with the Beal comp. Beal was a combo guard at Fla. who was initially thought of as someone who could play point guard. Beal doesn't have Tre's size/length/elevation, or footspeed, or shooting off of movement. Beal is all change-of-pace off the dribble. If you want to back off Ray Allen or Devin Booker as a comp for Tre, you can look at Klay Thompson just due to the high, quick release and ability to shoot off of movement and relocations. A bigger downgrade would be someone like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

It's interesting to me that Locke hasn't said anything about Ace Bailey in the past week. Maybe the assumption is that he's going #3 still.

 

[KqWIN]

I'm also just not a fan of dismissing "he doesn't go to the rim" because he did it twice in the same possession and then made an incredible pass the next possession. Be the equivalent of saying there are no concerns with shooting because a guy took two three, missed them, and then dunked all over a player the next possession.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think he's more like Jamal Murray/Tyler Herro in the sense that he's lacking the physicality that Beal has/had. I'm a big believer that indicators are all intertwined and are useful outside in other contexts. For example, Beal was a good rebounder/stocks/FTr guy in college. Those are not things you would say have been big strengths in his career, but I do think it speaks to Beal's general athleticism. Beal is who he is because he's a killer shooter, but I think that athleticism that showed up in the peripheral numbers is absolutely a part of that.

I agree... I can see a lot of Herro there. I think he has more length so should be able to do more... but as noted his rebound and stock numbers ain't good.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

I think Beal is a good high end outcome comp for Tre. Think he might be a better shooter and bigger but maybe less good with the ball than Beal was at his peak.

at least at this stage of their respective careers, Tre seems to be a better prospect. bigger (by a significant amount), better shooter, similar athletically, and as far as ballhandling - we have to go by memory (and it's hard to measure anyway) so it's tough, but Tre had a higher assist rate and a lower turnover rate than Beal which is at least somewhat indicative of what they can do with the ball.

Beal did get to the ft line more often, and was a pretty elite rebounder for a 6'3" guard. Beal was a high stocks guy in college, but those things really didn't translate. but he did learn to be a playmaker. Beal is actually a good case study of who one is in college isn't necessarily who they will be in the league - for good or bad - especially for these one and dones.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Will be interesting to see if Will Hardy has any more input after his extension.

Hardy doesn't seem to like Keyonte, Sensabaugh, or Cody due to the playstyle of the first two and Cody's uhhhh, everything... So I could see him arguing against Ace Bailey potentially.

But I don't know if Ainge or Smith care very much about which players he likes.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

It would be great if the Wiz were locked in on Queen. It would be phenomenal if Hornets reach for Khaman.

I just really wish I knew what Philly was thinking. I think the Hornets could be wary of taking Ace with Miller (wing who will operate in the mid range some) and Lamelo (who is already very unserious). I really think Philly/charlotte could go VJ/Tre in some order. I'd be happy to take Ace for ourselves or as a hostage if there are offers we like depending on how things fall out.

I think Philly is stuck with Embiid, and I think they're probably stuck with Paul George. The cost to the Sixers to try to get off those contracts is prohibitively high. They've got their younger guards that they believe in, though they might want to bring one off the bench just so they have more size defensively. They can add a top-3 pick this year, so now they can have a young core developing behind Embiid/PG. I think they just draft their favorite player among the Ace/Tre/VJ tier and keep him to develop.

If the Jazz offered Lauri and 5 for PG and 3, I think the Sixers would take that deal and run for the exit, but the Jazz won't do it. I don't see the Jazz moving Lauri and taking Paul George back just to move up two spots.

 

[KqWIN]

I agree... I can see a lot of Herro there. I think he has more length so should be able to do more... but as noted his rebound and stock numbers ain't good.

I struggle to give much credit to Tre because he is like worst in class at doing the primary things height/length is supposed to do. I'm sure it helps him shoot over people and pass, but I really can't get behind the "he's a bigger X" when he plays a lot smaller than his size.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think Philly is stuck with Embiid, and I think they're probably stuck with Paul George. The cost to the Sixers to try to get off those contracts is prohibitively high. They've got their younger guards that they believe in, though they might want to bring one off the bench just so they have more size defensively. They can add a top-3 pick this year, so now they can have a young core developing behind Embiid/PG. I think they just draft their favorite player among the Ace/Tre/VJ tier and keep him to develop.

If the Jazz offered Lauri and 5 for PG and 3, I think the Sixers would take that deal and run for the exit, but the Jazz won't do it. I don't see the Jazz moving Lauri and taking Paul George back just to move up two spots.

I think Lauri, #5 for PG, #3, the 2028 Clips pick they own is like the bottom of the deal zone. The Jazz shouldn't pay much to move up but that 28 clips pick has some real value imo.