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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

Saint Cy of JFC said:
To me Traore just looks fine. Don't see a ton of upside. Think he has to shoot to reach whatever upside he has, and the numbers just aren't encouraging.

Don't think the shot looks horrible though. I could see him as high as 18-ish.
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I think Traore has some real upside, but I just think the chance he hits is low. He has had extremely high highs, and I think some of the games he has had are more impressive than almost anyone in the draft. He also, just kind of has the IT factor and he seems to play better in bigger games.

He has two elite skills right now, the ability to get wherever he wants on the court with the ball, and his passing/vision. It's not quite enough to be a complete NBA player that is going to get minutes. For me personally, if a guard can't shoot, then I want them to be a great defender. Traore isn't a great shooter, and isn't a high level defender, at least right now. I would be curious to see his splits on off the bounce vs catch and shoot shots, but I have no idea how to find that type of information.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
NBA Big Board threw out some shooting stat on Bailey's 3s where was over 40% on guarded 3s and under 30% on open ones.

I think he just had a bad shooting year at Rutgers.
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This reminded me of the Jordan Clarkson stats I looked up the other day, did you see that? Jordan Clarkson shoots better the tighter he is guarded, lol.
 
By the way is anyone else watching the Cashiggy videos on YouTube? I see that some of their videos only get like 100 views, and that is crazy to me.

I'm not sure how you can be a serious amateur draft scout and not take advantage of these videos. I'm almost at the point where I won't watch a highlight video unless it has both makes and misses.

www.youtube.com

Cashiggy

Uploading cutups of potential NBA prospects.
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com

Last night he posted some Jase videos. Right now they are posting 3-4 videos of a prospect every week.
 
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I’m sort of in on Bailey. Don’t think he processes the game that well but shooting worse on open threes versus guarded seems like something that should regress to the mean. I personally think he’s an elite shooter.
 
I get a little uneasy putting too much emphasis on the categorized shooting numbers. The shooting sample size is already small enough, and now we're putting it into even smaller groups. And because there's so many sub categories of shooting, the likelihood of one of them looking good is high just due to variation. We also need to make sure to compare apples to apples, I'll often see a number in one of these subcategories and I don't actually know how well that compares to the average in that subcategory. Seems like we just compare it to an overall 3FG%, which I don't think is correct.

I think the categories are good to get a feel for the degree of difficulty of a player's shots. If, for example, a larger proportion of a guy's three point shots are off the dribble or contested it's reasonable to expect his overall 3FG% to be lower....But I try no to put too much stock in the percentages themselves. If I had the time and access, I'd produce a stat that shows the expected value of a player's shooting based solely on his shot profile and then compare his overall to that.
 
KqWIN said:
I get a little uneasy putting too much emphasis on the categorized shooting numbers. The shooting sample size is already small enough, and now we're putting it into even smaller groups. And because there's so many sub categories of shooting, the likelihood of one of them looking good is high just due to variation. We also need to make sure to compare apples to apples, I'll often see a number in one of these subcategories and I don't actually know how well that compares to the average in that subcategory. Seems like we just compare it to an overall 3FG%, which I don't think is correct.

I think the categories are good to get a feel for the degree of difficulty of a player's shots. If, for example, a larger proportion of a guy's three point shots are off the dribble or contested it's reasonable to expect his overall 3FG% to be lower....But I try no to put too much stock in the percentages themselves. If I had the time and access, I'd produce a stat that shows the expected value of a player's shooting based solely on his shot profile and then compare his overall to that.
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I'm mostly just curious where people are pulling all of this information from. I know there are some paid sites to get more data on prospects, but even then I don't think they are that detailed.

I agree with your overall premise, but I think in this specific case of Ace, it's pretty easy to see that he takes a lot of contested shots. There is probably enough volume there to be interesting.
 
rippimpc said:
Second Spectrum data
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I'm aware of the site, but from what I understood the stats aren't broken out like NBA.com tracking data.

If someone has access, it would be great to post the type of stats you can get from there. Also, does it have international prospects? Specifically I'm interested in Traore's catch and shoot vs pull up numbers.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I'm mostly just curious where people are pulling all of this information from. I know there are some paid sites to get more data on prospects, but even then I don't think they are that detailed.

I agree with your overall premise, but I think in this specific case of Ace, it's pretty easy to see that he takes a lot of contested shots. There is probably enough volume there to be interesting.
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Yeah....that last point is about as far as I'll take the category stuff. With Ace, it's pretty obvious on film.....but if you're not watching as much these numbers can be nice to get a better feel for how difficult a guy's shots are. Even assisted vs non-assisted is useful, but we don't have that for guys like Traore. I just think that getting too into the weeds about a specific category opens yourself up to too much variation+cherry picking.
 
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