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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

It's worth hunting for
Especially with Ace and Tre within our reach. If we were drafting 9th or 10th again I would buy the go for a safer pick a little more but we’re picking top-5 for only the 6th time ever. Let’s go for it. We don’t have a ton of opportunities like this ever. Screw going high floor and safe.
 
49 NCAA prospects drafted from 2012-2021 in the 3-8 Range:

I classified them into 3 categories:

Hit - Borderline All Star or better, Jamal Murray is the worst "hit"

Starter - Established themselves as a starter level player. Deandre Hunger is the worst "starter"

Bust - Everything worse


15 Hits
15 Starters
19 Busts

Highest Hit:Bust ratio is PG
Highest Bust:Hit ratio is C/Big

I made an arbitrary line of greater than 25% usage or not. Greater than >25% usage is slightly better than players <25%, but it is essentially the same.

Closest players based on stats/physical/playstyle etc.

Ace - Tatum, Josh Jackson, Harrison Barnes
VJ - Suggs, Smart, Beal, McLemore, Waiters, Okoro
Fears - Garland, Sexton, Fox, Lillard, Coby White
Tre - Hield, Murray, KCP, Beal, McLemore
Kon - Stauskas?
 
I actually think that's a fair statement. There are times when I watch him and I do and times that I don't.
Kas had a 10 game stretch from games 6-15 where he averaged 20/5/5/1 while shooting 45.9% from three on 6.1 attempts per game.

During this span he looked like a sure fire top-5 pick.
 
Kas before and after injury. Actual injury issues, or just shooting regression to the mean? Some of both methinks.

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