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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

Basketball Novice said:
Yea, currently he isn't elite by the numbers. Thats where the projection comes in. He isn't an elite scorer now but he is on the road to becoming one.

I project Fears to be a great 3 level scorer and playmaker, better than guys like De'Aaron Fox and Trae Young. It's a massive bar to get over but I think he has the skills to do it.

What do great scorers look like when they are early in their development? Are great scorers just born with the ability to shoot 40% from NBA 3 range? Obviously not. There is a learning process that takes place with the various basketball skills including shooting and dribbling. Some skills are more ingrained and other are more learned.

Fears is in that process right now, like all young players. And he decided to challenge college a year early in his development. So yea things look a bit unrefined.

I judge the essential parts to be there, namely the ability to attack the rim and draw fouls, the elite dribble, the physicality despite his size, the clutch shotmaking under pressure, the natural passing vision. What he is deficient in, the off the dribble 3s and the finishing at the rim, can be worked on.

For the comparison, Fears has a bit more athleticism than Kyrie. It's not to the level of Ja or any of the hyper athletic guards but he isn't completely outclassed either. It would be in the B to B+ range.

If your comparing all PGs to Kyrie then I'll just let you know now. No PG is going to match Kyrie's college production. He was insane in college even though he only played 10 games or something like that. The stats themselves look ridiculous. If the bar is College Kyrie, then your never drafting a PG high. Harper certainly doesn't meet that bar but maybe you exclude him because he is a 6'6" combo. Maybe Ja was close? But he played at Murray State and was a sophomore. Maybe your just out on the PG archetype in general.

Essentially, Fears has the right stuff but is a bit earlier on the development curve than someone like Ja or any guards who came out as upperclassman. Would I prefer to see better production and percentages from Fears, of course. But, he decided to come out into the draft now. We have to judge him as an 18 year old and project the rest of the development. And I look highly upon what skills he has and am very positive about his future development.
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I only compared him to Kyrie because when I watch Fears play, he kinda reminds me of him (in a positive way).

Saying Fears gets over Trae Young offensively is a massive reach since Young was absolutely dominant at college averaging 27.7 points and 8.7 assists in Big-12 and winning every award that year. Projecting Fears to become better is a ridiculous overprojection. Young was also one and done who got drafted as a 19 year old. Besides Young is also the perfect example of why a ball dominant guard who can get past guys, draw fouls and touch paint at will isnt really elevating his team if he is the #1 guy. If your best player is a small guard he will get RELENTLESSLY attacked on defense to wear him down. That will either hurt his offense or then he gives up points on the other end. Steph is the only guy who has been able to overcome that hurdle but he is NOT ball dominant on offense and his best abilities are NOT the same as Fears' or Young's.

Iso guards have lost so much value over the past few years with the modern ball rotation offense that aims to get 3s and dunks. I just dont buy them as #1 options anymore. SGA is definitely an exception but if there ever is a guy who you can realistically project to become SGA he is going to be drafted #1. SGA is also super long and much taller than other ball dominant guards (sans Luka, who is another example that works but too different to be a comp for Fears). Every year you can find guys from 7-12 range who "could become SGA" and I'm not interested in that gamble if I'm picking 5.

The way I see it none of VJ, Tre and Fears have realistic #1 on a championship contender upside. Ace has but the chance he reaches it is far too low to dramatically impact my opinion of him. For #2 upside I'd rather pick a versatile prospect with size, length, athleticism and shooting. Fears loses to most of the other 3 in those areas.. and again he HAS to have the ball a lot to use his best traits,
 
HermanG said:
I only compared him to Kyrie because when I watch Fears play, he kinda reminds me of him (in a positive way).

Saying Fears gets over Trae Young offensively is a massive reach since Young was absolutely dominant at college averaging 27.7 points and 8.7 assists in Big-12 and winning every award that year. Projecting Fears to become better is a ridiculous overprojection. Young was also one and done who got drafted as a 19 year old. Besides Young is also the perfect example of why a ball dominant guard who can get past guys, draw fouls and touch paint at will isnt really elevating his team if he is the #1 guy. If your best player is a small guard he will get RELENTLESSLY attacked on defense to wear him down. That will either hurt his offense or then he gives up points on the other end. Steph is the only guy who has been able to overcome that hurdle but he is NOT ball dominant on offense and his best abilities are NOT the same as Fears' or Young's.

Iso guards have lost so much value over the past few years with the modern ball rotation offense that aims to get 3s and dunks. I just dont buy them as #1 options anymore. SGA is definitely an exception but if there ever is a guy who you can realistically project to become SGA he is going to be drafted #1. SGA is also super long and much taller than other ball dominant guards (sans Luka, who is another example that works but too different to be a comp for Fears). Every year you can find guys from 7-12 range who "could become SGA" and I'm not interested in that gamble if I'm picking 5.

The way I see it none of VJ, Tre and Fears have realistic #1 on a championship contender upside. Ace has but the chance he reaches it is far too low to dramatically impact my opinion of him. For #2 upside I'd rather pick a versatile prospect with size, length, athleticism and shooting. Fears loses to most of the other 3 in those areas.. and again he HAS to have the ball a lot to use his best traits,
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Perhaps Trae is a bridge too far to reach, maybe I am a bit overzealous in my projections but college production doesn't equate to NBA production. I like the skills Fears brings over what I have seen from Trae. Plus I think Fears will fare better defensively. If I don't have the confidence to project Fears over Trae then I wouldn't want to draft him this high. It might be pie in the sky, but I am sticking to my guns. Thats the fun part about all this, calling your shot and I am calling it here.

Your right that small guards get hunted in the playoffs but there are ways to build teams around them. The Knicks have Brunson, the Pacers have Haliburton, the Thunder have SGA (he is more 6'6" big pg type, I wouldn't count him). It is fair to be completely out on the small PG archetype, once you see a short guard get hunted relentlessly it just feels bad to have them, but you will also be passing on those talents in the draft. I can't say whether that is right or wrong, it's just a different team building philosophy. Has the NBA evolved past the small PG?

Ace does have the Size, length, athleticism, and good shooting. But, those qualities aren't enough to be an effective NBA player. Otherwise he would have performed better at Rutgers. There is a mental gear missing from Ace, and I am not keen to find out whether it can be taught. You can argue its just his youth and it might be but, It will take a complete shift in playstyle and mindset to actualize the versatility of his skillset. And there are tools that are just missing from the skillset completely. Its alot to work on.

VJ and Tre I feel better about and would be happy to draft them. I agree with your general assessments on them.

Its clear that you value the physical traits alot along with shooting, and I can't say your wrong on that. Its probably the safer, logical way to go about drafting. But there is something about Fears that makes me think he's the guy. You can call it "vibes" I suppose.
 
HermanG said:
The problem I have with Fears is that he is a ball dominant lead guard who has great iso scoring ability and mediocre playmaking, which is a near useless archtype if he doesnt actually turn into a star/superstar level player.

Then if I look at "the chance of him turning into a superstar" I just dont see it. He is 6'4 (in shoes) under-the-rim athlete who had 1.2 AST/TO and horrible off the dribble efficiency (including 44.5% at the rim).

In my eyes he is an inch taller Kyrie/Dame without their shooting and scoring touch.
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He’s the type of player that could pigeon hole your team in the mediocrity. When rebuilding we have to be careful who the keys are given too. Pick the wrong driver and you could be hamstrung. I want a lead guard who sees the whole court. If decision making and shooting improves we may already have that in Collier. If they do see that ability in Fears, go for it, but it makes me nervous. Not sure I see that player in this years draft so I’m happy drafting someone like VJ or Tre to be the “robin” for hopeful better odds next year for our lead guy.
 
Basketball Novice said:
Perhaps Trae is a bridge too far to reach, maybe I am a bit overzealous in my projections but college production doesn't equate to NBA production. I like the skills Fears brings over what I have seen from Trae. Plus I think Fears will fare better defensively. If I don't have the confidence to project Fears over Trae then I wouldn't want to draft him this high. It might be pie in the sky, but I am sticking to my guns. Thats the fun part about all this, calling your shot and I am calling it here.

Your right that small guards get hunted in the playoffs but there are ways to build teams around them. The Knicks have Brunson, the Pacers have Haliburton, the Thunder have SGA (he is more 6'6" big pg type, I wouldn't count him). It is fair to be completely out on the small PG archetype, once you see a short guard get hunted relentlessly it just feels bad to have them, but you will also be passing on those talents in the draft. I can't say whether that is right or wrong, it's just a different team building philosophy. Has the NBA evolved past the small PG?

Ace does have the Size, length, athleticism, and good shooting. But, those qualities aren't enough to be an effective NBA player. Otherwise he would have performed better at Rutgers. There is a mental gear missing from Ace, and I am not keen to find out whether it can be taught. You can argue its just his youth and it might be but, It will take a complete shift in playstyle and mindset to actualize the versatility of his skillset. And there are tools that are just missing from the skillset completely. Its alot to work on.

VJ and Tre I feel better about and would be happy to draft them. I agree with your general assessments on them.

Its clear that you value the physical traits alot along with shooting, and I can't say your wrong on that. Its probably the safer, logical way to go about drafting. But there is something about Fears that makes me think he's the guy. You can call it "vibes" I suppose.
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I dont think we are far off in our assessments. Its just different preferences mostly.

For the record I do not like Ace for pretty much the same reasons as you dont like him. I've said it numerous times that if he falls to 5 I think our FO will run to the podium to draft him but I would be nervous af with him being the first theoretical core piece in this rebuild. If we were to make the Lauri for PG swap and get Ace I would feel a lot better with PG being the exact player to help Ace model his game. But I dont think PG would be a happy camper here as I suspect he wants to grow his podcast and would therefore rather be in a big market.
 
zags422 said:
He’s the type of player that could pigeon hole your team in the mediocrity. When rebuilding we have to be careful who the keys are given too. Pick the wrong driver and you could be hamstrung. I want a lead guard who sees the whole court. If decision making and shooting improves we may already have that in Collier. If they do see that ability in Fears, go for it, but it makes me nervous. Not sure I see that player in this years draft so I’m happy drafting someone like VJ or Tre to be the “robin” for hopeful better odds next year for our lead guy.
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I think Collier is quite far from being that guy but other than that I agree with most of what you said. I believe ballhandling and driving is something you need from 2-3 guys at least to make it harder for defenses to anticipate and plan on how they slow you down. But you absolutely need great shooting from at least 4 guys these days. The only non-shooter I would generally accept is my center, if he is a dominant rebounder who steals possessions and a dominant rim protector who can lock down the paint.

I think there are compromises to every team design, but one compromise I dont want to make is betting on ball-needy players whose greatest quality is isolation ball. I think recent KD super teams (KD/Harden/Kyrie and KD/Booker/Beal) serve as great examples that you can definitely have too many "hoopers" and not enough role players. Theoretically it makes no sense that Suns missed the playoffs with those 3 guys on the roster. In practice they werent even competitive against the top teams.
 
Some of these criticisms of Fears are fair, but some of them also apply to Tre/Ace. I’d agree that he has high bust potential because if he can’t shoot, he doesn’t really have a role. But I’d also agree that his path to star is probably as real and maybe even more real than Tre/Ace/VJ. It’s more straightforward at least.
 
HermanG said:
I think Collier is quite far from being that guy but other than that I agree with most of what you said. I believe ballhandling and driving is something you need from 2-3 guys at least to make it harder for defenses to anticipate and plan on how they slow you down. But you absolutely need great shooting from at least 4 guys these days. The only non-shooter I would generally accept is my center, if he is a dominant rebounder who steals possessions and a dominant rim protector who can lock down the paint.

I think there are compromises to every team design, but one compromise I dont want to make is betting on ball-needy players whose greatest quality is isolation ball. I think recent KD super teams (KD/Harden/Kyrie and KD/Booker/Beal) serve as great examples that you can definitely have too many "hoopers" and not enough role players. Theoretically it makes no sense that Suns missed the playoffs with those 3 guys on the roster. In practice they werent even competitive against the top teams.
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Collier is 33% 3pt shooting away from being pretty good.
 
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