Tortured logic
Calling that "flawed logic" is an insult to flawed logic everywhere.
*The table is not adjusted for tiebreakers. #4 and #5 would be virtually even in terms of winning a top-3 pick, although Utah has one additional ping-pong ball due to the uneven number of chances when combining 4/5 and dividing by 2.
So here's my "flawed logic" prediction:
1. Teams slotted 6-14 stay the same as they have the highest percentages for finishing at their respective spots.
2. Boston at #5 won't drop to #6 (as #6 has a higher chance of finishing there) nor will they stay at #5 as #4 has a higher percentage of finishing #5. So Boston lost the coin flip battle, but they win the war as they're going to jump.
3. Utah at #4 has the highest chance of finishing at #5, so Utah drops a spot.
4. Milwaukee has the highest single likelihood of finishing at #4. Sorry, Bucks.
5. So now we have Orlando, Philly and Boston left as the lotto teams.
6. Milwaukee already dropped to #4, so next likeliest spot for Orlando is #1. By same logic, Philly gets the #2 slot and Boston, by default, is left with the #3 position.
To recap:
1. Orlando
2. Philadelphia
3. Boston
4. Milwaukee
5. Utah
6-14. (No change from pre-lottery positions).
Calling that "flawed logic" is an insult to flawed logic everywhere.