Global Climate Status Report
- Thread starter babe
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you're looking at this in terms of a failed linear extrapolation model. The truth is something else.
whenever a system is distorted so that it produces a record event somewhere, you may expect to see a countervailing event of the other extreme somewhere else. This is a a short-term event.
Here is a discussion of this year's polar vortex anomaly.....
https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-polar-vortex-climate-change-and-beast-from-the-east
Recent data supports a weak La Nina forecast for the coming months, an event that generally strengthens the polar vortex. This year it broke up, but was still very significant in bringing extreme cold, record cold temps across Europe in the neighborhood of February, as well as in our northern plains.
I am looking for signs of a new ice age. My model for predicting such a grand climate shift requires warmer oceans than we have even now, and a stabilization of the ENSO in the Pacific(with warmer temps and less cold water from the Arctic melts). The Ice Ages we have had have been due to a persistent stabilization of the polar vortex over Hudson Bay, with ice increasing due to extraodinary snow events drawing on the warm Gulf and Pacific. The Great Basin, during these climate events, have literally filled up with rain water, but during the Ice Ages, the ice generally has not increased as much elsewhere in the world as in the northern flats of North America.
NAOS
Well-Known Member
A countervailing event can’t put the methane back in the bottle, dude. And neither should one get religious in their belief of the kind of countervailing move you describe.
I wish this babe character you write through hadn’t taken this kind of literary turn.
Red
Well-Known Member
Actually, I’m just posting an interesting item pertaining to the weather in the Arctic. Seemed like the right thread.
I’m confused. The article is dated March, 2018, and it’s summer 2020 in the Arctic as of yesterday.
I know. Nothing wrong with that. I understand we are in an interglacial period, but we, namely humans, are a contributing factor to climate, at this point in our development, that we were not in earlier interglacials. I see no reason not to believe that that change in our status MAY mean we can alter the pattern of glaciation of the past 2 million years. And permafrost is melting. I see this in the fossil market, oddly enough, where mammoth tusks bring big $$, and local people in Siberia are bringing many to market, as they poke out of the permafrost and can be extracted now.
The changing climate is obviously heightened in the north polar region, and has been so for a number of years now. Ask the natives of the area. Consider the plight of the polar bear. Not in a moral sense, though that helps, IMO. But the obvious physical changes having to do with ice cover in their natural range. Why would I consider this short term when it’s an obvious trend that seems to have to do with warmth, and more of it? (We’ll see what the solar minimum contributes).
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In the context of news curently, I didn't notice the 2018 on this story.
This spring, there were record late spring snows and ensuing floods in Michigan. A dam was failing, and either failed or forced engineers to release water precipitously, so that an area was flooded. The site of a big chemical plant, with wastewater ponds and lots of toxics "stored" in the soil generally was flooded.
The fact is, 2020 has been worse than 2018 for a record departure from "normal" behavior for the Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weat...aching-record-strength-thats-not-scary-thing/
I've had some rough winters with long standing record cold air stationed in my area, like -30 F. and I really hate that. County road crews have to dig me outta my snowbank. But when this happens over the Great Basin, it's usually warmer somewhere else, probably a lot warmer. The recent few years, with some higher lattitude areas like Canada and the northern plains and Eastern Europe setting the record cold temps, the most significant departures on the plus side has been Siberia. Rarely does the Polar Vortex settle permanently on the North Pole.
ENSO, the El Nino Southern Oscillation, generally sets up a jet stream that moves stormy weather across the souther tier of US States, and is positively associated with a stabilization of the Polar Vortex over the Northern Rockies or Great Basin, but it is there moderated by warmer air mixing in more strongly.
Siberia has to have those warmer mixing airstreams go over the Caucasus and Tibetian ....lots of high mountains in the Eurasian Divide. I think that is a barrier to centering a long-term pattern of Ice Age proportions there. So it has always happened over the Hudson Bay/Northern Plains where the supply of moisture from the Gulf and Pacific are less impeded.
The recent pattern is Ice Age favorable, but it is about an order of magnitude too weak to do the trick for a serious Ice Age. Oceans not warm enough. Human emissions help, but the solar cycle is on the wrong side extreme.
This pattern generates some fuel for climate worrywarts, but it is neither the
"Global Warming" that socialists are horny for, nor the Ice Age a few contrarian scientists are having wet dreams about.
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Well, it is 2020 so you never know.
The methane under the permafrost comes from living photosynthetic plants and living things that eat plants.
During some geologic ages we had a much higher CO2 atmosphere with extreme growth rates in plants, in the Arctic marshes. There was no Arctic ice to speak much of, except maybe on mountains, God only knows. There were no mammoths then.
The wild mammoth tusk rush now going on is because during the last ice age, maybe early on or most likely near the end of it, a lot of mammoths were up there eating the lush plant life, when a sudden cold event more or less froze a lot of them in their tracks.
photosynthesis takes the final end product of methane, CO2, and stores it in plant products. Then the ice comes and traps it all, and freezes it to some depth. This is part of a geologic cycle that has happened multiple times in geologic history, evidenced by carbon dating science.
So you are simply mistaken about the irreversible doomsday crap. Yes, the cycle is long. But no, a polar meltoff is not permanent nor exactly doomsday. If we weren't so damn indoctrinated in socialist bullscrap, we'd be thinking of rathional ways to cope swith real climate change. Be they merely cyclical natural things or anthropogenic.
NAOS
Well-Known Member
You seem to think that because something (like methane, which is not a product or by-product of photosynthesis, btw) is the result of a living system, then everything should more-or-less be hunky-dory as far as living is concerned. That’s a weird perspective. A massive rush of methane could literally throw the human food supply into a decade-long turmoil. Is that a significant amount of time when you look at it through a geological lens? Obviously not. Would it be significant in the course of human history? Abso****inglutely yes.
Red
Well-Known Member
Prrsently, the notion that the onset of the last ice age was so rapid, that mammoths actually quick froze in place, instantly, their most recent meal still in their mouths, has been mostly embraced by Creationists( see: https://www.icr.org/article/did-frozen-mammoths-die-flood-or-ice-age). I can’t recall at the moment if it was catastrophist Immanuel Velikovsky who first came up with this theory in “Worlds in Collusion”, or not. I did enjoy reading his books back in the day, since it was basically alternative Earth history, and catastrophism would eventually enter the mainstream anyway, but not via Velikovsky’s theories, but rather via Louis Alvarez and son’s asteroid impact hypothesis for the extinction event that included the dinosaurs at the end of the Cretaceous Period. You won’t find much, if any, support for this notion of an “instantaneous quick freeze” in the scientific community, though. It has been awhile since I perused this notion of quick freeze, but I know very few believe it...
https://creation.com/the-extinction-of-the-woolly-mammoth-was-it-a-quick-freeze
https://answersingenesis.org/extinct-animals/ice-age/were-siberian-mammoths-quick-frozen/
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Don't just be an idiot.
I said we have had Actic meltoffs before, and we can carbon date them by the remains of carbon based life remains. On a simple realization that we have found mammoths in the muck, frozen in place while eating lush growth, when there was a dramatic climate change towards the colder patterns. Such meltoffs have occurred I would imagine around previous ice age cycles as well.
Methane is a natural part of the photosynthetic carbon cycle. Every living thing exudes methane. It is possible there is some methane in the crust that is abiotic, but for a gas of that reactivity and vapor behavior, it is likely not much of any deposit near the surface, I imagine.
methane is highly reactive and "burns" when exposed to uv light, with a fairly short "half life" derived from its reactivity in the atmosphere with oxygen under uv light.
you're been literally brainwashed by irresponsible fake science ideology deliberately and deceitfully taught by our current crop of cool ideological morons.
A careful review of the mathematics that have been used in various climate models shows some inaccuracies and exaggerations in the models. It is true enough that "greenhouse gases" favor retention of radiative heat, but I think the most critical factor is neglected or badly represented in the models. The oceans store more heat than the atmosphere can with every 1 degree of warming of not just the surface but the whole depth temperature profile, and it is heat of that magnitude that fuels evaporation increases of the scale that can produce massive ice accumulations in places like the Hudson Bay.