Global Climate Status Report
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Red
Well-Known Member
I believe @Heathme is in a minority, backing junk science to the bitter end....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/13/trumps-climate-change-denial-is-political-loser/
"President Trump and his fellow Republican climate-change deniers are wildly out of step with Americans, according to a poll conducted by The Post and the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF). “The poll finds that a strong majority of Americans — about 8 in 10 — say that human activity is fueling climate change, and roughly half believe action is urgently needed within the next decade if humanity is to avert its worst effects.” It is difficult to get 8 out of 10 Americans to agree on anything (other than background checks for firearms purchases, which Trump also opposes). In addition, “Nearly 4 in 10 now say climate change is a ‘crisis,’ up from less than a quarter five years ago."
The president is not even in step with his own party. “Though Democrats and independents are more likely to think climate change is caused by human activity, a majority of Republicans — 60 percent — say they, too, believe that, The Post-KFF survey finds.” In addition, “23 percent of Republicans say they disapprove of how Trump is handling the issue, compared with just 9 percent of Republicans who disapprove of his job performance overall.”
I recently attended a conference literally run by Trump with panelists discussing various topics.
yes, there was some rhetorical disbelief in the Climate Crisis, but mostly it was about socialism having no relevance to what we should do about it. Well, practically speaking, which is the language of Trump.
I think part of the Trade deal with China will be actual reduction in pollution. It's seen as a giveaway that China's producers can pollute with impunity. If we are going to have regulations, they need to be the same for everyone.
yes, there was some rhetorical disbelief in the Climate Crisis, but mostly it was about socialism having no relevance to what we should do about it. Well, practically speaking, which is the language of Trump.
I think part of the Trade deal with China will be actual reduction in pollution. It's seen as a giveaway that China's producers can pollute with impunity. If we are going to have regulations, they need to be the same for everyone.
So back to the Climate Change Report.....
Just following the recent weather satellites and SST data.....
It looks to me like the pattern of last year with respect to SSTs still exists, even though the weak El Nino has weakened. There is still quite a lot of "warm" areas over the oceans worldwide. The Indian Ocean and Southern Ocean are about a half degree cooler than last year, as is the North Pacific and North Atlantic.... and since there is less ice in the Arctic, it shows 2 C warmer than "average". I don't believe this is as significant for Climate as some say. The Arctic is shallow, and determined by yearly ice melt. All the large rivers of Siberia and North America that flow into it, and set up currents into the Pacific and North Atlantic. Very strongly follows the solar cycle and on large scale the rotational precession, both of which are believed to be long term "cooling" for the North.
Pretty impressive tropical moisture flows moving into the northern jet stream, predictive of lots of snow in the higher latitudes this year.
All supportive of a theory that warmer oceans, both surface and at depth, will restore the Arctic ice pack pretty soon.
In other words, @Red , good reason for not being overboard on the alarmism or the politics. And good reason to question the alarmist "science".
Just following the recent weather satellites and SST data.....
It looks to me like the pattern of last year with respect to SSTs still exists, even though the weak El Nino has weakened. There is still quite a lot of "warm" areas over the oceans worldwide. The Indian Ocean and Southern Ocean are about a half degree cooler than last year, as is the North Pacific and North Atlantic.... and since there is less ice in the Arctic, it shows 2 C warmer than "average". I don't believe this is as significant for Climate as some say. The Arctic is shallow, and determined by yearly ice melt. All the large rivers of Siberia and North America that flow into it, and set up currents into the Pacific and North Atlantic. Very strongly follows the solar cycle and on large scale the rotational precession, both of which are believed to be long term "cooling" for the North.
Pretty impressive tropical moisture flows moving into the northern jet stream, predictive of lots of snow in the higher latitudes this year.
All supportive of a theory that warmer oceans, both surface and at depth, will restore the Arctic ice pack pretty soon.
In other words, @Red , good reason for not being overboard on the alarmism or the politics. And good reason to question the alarmist "science".
Here's the latest global map prepared by the establishment scientists.....
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2019/anomnight.9.12.2019.gif
And here's the same product from one year ago....
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomnight.9.13.2018.gif
and here's the prediction of the solar short cycle...
https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle
The "experts" hope that the trend to weakening of the solar cycle will begin to trend up after this cycle, rather than sink lower into a Maunder minimum sort of regime...... but there is absolutely no basis for the hope any better than a casino slot player hoping his "luck" will change.
The internal solar processes, reaction rates and underlying causes, are entirely outside of our capacity to measure anything.
We now have a measure of internal earth radioactive decay, and can track that in real time, if we will choose to dedicate our technical capacities to that.... whcih we won't....
We would need to build a system to detect certain sub-nuclear emissions from the Sun to begin to collect data on what is happening there in real time.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2019/anomnight.9.12.2019.gif
And here's the same product from one year ago....
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomnight.9.13.2018.gif
and here's the prediction of the solar short cycle...
https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle
The "experts" hope that the trend to weakening of the solar cycle will begin to trend up after this cycle, rather than sink lower into a Maunder minimum sort of regime...... but there is absolutely no basis for the hope any better than a casino slot player hoping his "luck" will change.
The internal solar processes, reaction rates and underlying causes, are entirely outside of our capacity to measure anything.
We now have a measure of internal earth radioactive decay, and can track that in real time, if we will choose to dedicate our technical capacities to that.... whcih we won't....
We would need to build a system to detect certain sub-nuclear emissions from the Sun to begin to collect data on what is happening there in real time.
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So, overall....
We have some good satellite data, dedicated resources in use, and the ability to track changes over time with pretty good resolution and frequency. We would be able to "see" an underwater volcanic eruption of a fairly small scale with observing an anomalous "hot spot" where a convection current brings the heat to the surface.
We have virtually no instruments in place for tracking deep sea temps, particularly below 300m depth.
We have absolutely no instruments in place for tracking changes in deep well earth temps or heat flux. We have no clue about changes in carbon dioxide concentrations in the oceans, where most of our "free" carbon exists.
summary.....
we just don't know what the hell is happening to our planet, really. Or to our climate.
But there are a lot of hot head trendy charlatans predicting doom, claiming we gotta change our political and economic civilization and go to hell like Venezuela.
We have some good satellite data, dedicated resources in use, and the ability to track changes over time with pretty good resolution and frequency. We would be able to "see" an underwater volcanic eruption of a fairly small scale with observing an anomalous "hot spot" where a convection current brings the heat to the surface.
We have virtually no instruments in place for tracking deep sea temps, particularly below 300m depth.
We have absolutely no instruments in place for tracking changes in deep well earth temps or heat flux. We have no clue about changes in carbon dioxide concentrations in the oceans, where most of our "free" carbon exists.
summary.....
we just don't know what the hell is happening to our planet, really. Or to our climate.
But there are a lot of hot head trendy charlatans predicting doom, claiming we gotta change our political and economic civilization and go to hell like Venezuela.
So, looking at the global SST products being offered, a year ago, I was babbling about warm oceans globally, wondering if there is "deep sea" trend supporting it, or if it's all CO2 and solar cycles. Rapid polar ice melt is capable of driving the SST anomalies..... affecting salt mixing currents, cold freshwater currents coming out of the Bering Strait or or Norwegian Sea.
El Nino/La Nina weather cycles are fairly well-known, but other weather oscillations occur which large power to affect weather on patterns that exist for weeks or months or even years. Most of these are actually phenomena of ocean mixing currents.
Areas of rising currents give colder SSTs. In times of "winter", the change in heat absorption in a region will regularly affect SSts. Polar ice in the Arctic is one very major factor.
Most oscillations in weather patterns have self-limiting factors. Storms forming over warm seas, like Hurricans, will reduce SSTs by some degrees. The typical hurricane will drop SST a couple of degrees short-term and reduce the chance of another storm strengthening in the same place.
An overall world change in SST of 1 C is really awesomely huge in terms of impacts on clamate.
And that is about what we have now.
But change in the ambient atmospheric CO2 is pretty slow, and we've "been here before" many times. In fact in Earth History, we are near the all-time low in CO2, at a level that should be considered catastrophic and could be argued to be something we should try to increase, even. Plant life is experiencing a carbon desert climate, which is being healed by more CO2, if anything.
We were just stupid in the first place, building cities under geologic norms for sea boundaries.....
Thinking our inter-glacial warm climate is something that will never change.
Trying to fight cycles on this scale is ridiculously stupid. We should just figure on adapting.
El Nino/La Nina weather cycles are fairly well-known, but other weather oscillations occur which large power to affect weather on patterns that exist for weeks or months or even years. Most of these are actually phenomena of ocean mixing currents.
Areas of rising currents give colder SSTs. In times of "winter", the change in heat absorption in a region will regularly affect SSts. Polar ice in the Arctic is one very major factor.
Most oscillations in weather patterns have self-limiting factors. Storms forming over warm seas, like Hurricans, will reduce SSTs by some degrees. The typical hurricane will drop SST a couple of degrees short-term and reduce the chance of another storm strengthening in the same place.
An overall world change in SST of 1 C is really awesomely huge in terms of impacts on clamate.
And that is about what we have now.
But change in the ambient atmospheric CO2 is pretty slow, and we've "been here before" many times. In fact in Earth History, we are near the all-time low in CO2, at a level that should be considered catastrophic and could be argued to be something we should try to increase, even. Plant life is experiencing a carbon desert climate, which is being healed by more CO2, if anything.
We were just stupid in the first place, building cities under geologic norms for sea boundaries.....
Thinking our inter-glacial warm climate is something that will never change.
Trying to fight cycles on this scale is ridiculously stupid. We should just figure on adapting.
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Heathme
Guest
I'll post whatever I like, thanks. And just so we're clear, "climate change" is nothing but politics.