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Hollinger "Draft Rater" Board

r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t

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here is Hollinger's stats-based top 12, plus a few other guys that have been linked to the Jazz picks:

1. Kyrie Irving
2. Derrick Williams
3. Tristan Thompson
4. Jonas Valuncianas
5. Kawhi Leonard
6. Enes Kanter
7. Kemba Walker
8. Tobias Harris
9. Alec Burks
10. Jordan Hamilton
11. Bismack Biyombo
12. Brandon Knight
...
16. Chris Singleton
17. Jan Vesely
18. Klay Thompson
...
22. Jimmer Fredette
23. Donatas Motiejunas
...
25. Marcus Morris

There are four international men of mystery in this draft who did not play in the Euroleague last season and thus have no translated stats for me to discuss: Bismack Biyombo, Enes Kanter, Donatas Motiejunas, and Davis Bertans.

Fortunately, I've seen all four at the Hoop Summit the past two seasons. Biyombo has scouts worried because he can't shoot at all, but he's a dominating defensive force in the paint; at the absolute worst he's going to be better than Ekpe Udoh. I slotted him 11th on my board, behind all the players the Draft Rater is really gung-ho about. He's going to be a rotation player based on defense and rebounding alone; the question is if he can finish enough plays at the basket to start.

Kanter is sort of the anti-Biyombo; He's not much of an athlete and will be suspect at the defensive end, but has such a high skill level offensively that he's going to score relatively easily. A good comparable might be fellow Turk Mehmet Okur, except Kanter is probably more skilled with the ball.

https://insider.espn.go.com/nba/dra...lumnist=hollinger_john&page=draftrater-110620
 
Thanks, glad I got to see this before it gets removed.

Edit: I don't like how he just arbitrarily slots the no-stat guys here. Either it's stat based or not John.
 
Thanks, glad I got to see this before it gets removed.

Edit: I don't like how he just arbitrarily slots the no-stat guys here. Either it's stat based or not John.

Agree here. Amazing that a player with no track record or stats sits at number 6. Mind numbing.
 
I enjoyed that article. A lot of people ding Hollinger for his stats but he clearly states in the article that his "Draft Rater" has flaws. It is interesting that Kyrie Irving scored so well (your rating is hurt for not playing many minutes). His rating is above 15, and all other perimeter players to have a rating above 15 in his Draft Rater from 02-11 have become stars.
 
Here is a comment by holinger from the same article for all the dopes ready to dump on knight.

In Knight's case, as a one-and-done we have to acknowledge that the system hasn't rated players like him as accurately.
 
FWIW: I take these ratings somewhat seriously. In particular I remember a couple of years ago it would have made Ty Lawson a high lottery pick which looks prescient today vs. his actual draft standing and relative position vis a vis guys like Jonny Flynn and Jeff Teague.
 
From what little I saw of him in college he was a long, athletic, hustling player with solid fundamentals. He has a lot work to do no his offensive game. 3 seems too high but at 12 I would not be that upset.
 
I don't think it was Teague's fault that the Hawks coaches buried on him the bench his first few years. He was great against Chicago in the playoffs.
 
Tristan Thompson at #3. Wow.

The copy from the article on him is pretty interesting. Essentially it posits that among the big men for whom he has data Derek Williams and Thompson are in a class above everyone else. It really seems to be a good justification for #12.

I don't think it was Teague's fault that the Hawks coaches buried on him the bench his first few years. He was great against Chicago in the playoffs.

Two points on that:

1) I suspect he got a lot of traction because the Bulls had such low expectations they basically left him alone
2) How much stock do we put into a single playoff series? Visions of Tyronn Lue and Jerome James are flashing through my mind here.

Since it might be of interest here's what the Draft Rater looked like for last year's draft:

1 DeMarcus Cousins Kentucky 16.14
2. Evan Turner Ohio State 14.79
3. John Wall Kentucky 14.68
4. Greg Monroe Georgetown 14.39
5. Derrick Favors Georgia Tech 13.98
6. Xavier Henry Kansas 13.52
7. Luke Babbitt Nevada 13.35
8. Al-Farouq Aminu Wake Forest 13.30
9. Wes Johnson Syracuse 13.03
10. Greivis Vasquez Maryland 12.97
11. Sylven Landesberg Virginia 12.52
12. Omar Samhan Saint Mary's 12.47

Some of those names are brutal but it looks like he got the top largely correct (Gordon Hayward was #17). Xavier Henry is, at this point, an incomplete.
 
Tristan Thompson should be a good versatile pro - a bit like Ed Davis. I think he should go to Detroit or Charlotte. He's the kind of guy the Jazz would take also. It's just that he's a bit undersized for PF.
 
I like Tristan, but not for the Jazz. (need)

Let's assume that Tristan Thompson pans out for a second (I know, it's an assumption but work with me here): What about some variation on taking Thompson at #12, taking the point guard the Jazz apparently are dead-set on taking at #3 and then trading Millsap or Jefferson for Enes Kanter's draft slot?

If we're really committed to the youth movement that would give us a solid base of whichever PG the Jazz like, Gordon Hayward, and a three-man young big rotation of Favors, Kanter, and Thompson with Millsap or Jefferson there to help guide them along. Essentially the only position we wouldn't have a strong prospect waiting in the wings would be SF.
 
Just not sure why we need Tristan on that team. Gimme Hamilton. I'm not sold on drafting a PG in this draft, next draft, or the draft after that (weak).
 
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