Hyper Risky Move (HRM)

[KqWIN]

You said "But even if he turns us into the 20th ranked defense instead of 30th....That is a massive amount of wins." There was nothing about the defense-offense trade-off in that statement. I just wanted to add the caveat that the amount of wins would be somewhat less than massive since the offense would get worse at the same time as the defense improves. And here you are arguing not against me but against Hardy and Ainge because they are clearly concerned with Kessler's offensive limitations. They are very much aware about his defensive chops but he was moved to the bench and cautiously shopped around because they are not confident that all his defense would compensate for his offensive shortcomings. I, personally, value Kessler's defense much more than them.

And yes, it may surprise you but there are certain types of players who are heavily dependent on playing alongside great playmakers to be effective and the strong center with a limited offensive bag is one of them. Think Gobert, Lively, Kessler. They are very different in that respect from, say, Vukevic, Lopez, and Valanciunas.


That was funny, because you know which Jazz player Kessler had the highest offensive rating with in 2022-23? Mike Conley... The second one was Kris Dunn. And in 2023-24? It was again Kris Dunn and by a long shot.

What's funny is that you're the one who is hyperfixated on one side of the ball. I mentioned the tradeoff in the post you directly quoted. Did you just choose to ignore when I acknowledged the tradeoff? You quoted it lol, I'm sure you saw it. I guess I'll just say the same thing over again. The tradeoff is WELL in Kessler's favor using your own way of evaluating things. This is clearly evident in the on court net ratings (a very basic way of doing things, but the way you choose to do things). The tradeoff between his offensive/defense ability does lead to a significant amount of more wins for the Jazz. Kessler is a positive player on his own, but this is especially the case for a team whose greatest weakness is his greatest strength. The lowest hanging fruit for the Jazz is defense.

BTW, we're talking about Kessler in the context that he actually gets playing time. If you want to shift the goalposts and say, "if Hardy doesn't play him, he won't lead to wins"....ok.....that's not what we're talking about. Direct quote:

Simply playing at his rookie year level for close to 30 MPG would have a large impact on the team.

I think he's capable of playing at a level he's already played at. It may surprise you, but a player's individual play can also affect their effectiveness. For Kessler, his own personal play was more important than who he was surrounded with. The reasons he struggled last season have nothing to do with who he was playing with. He had more touches and had the ball more his second season. You know what he didn't do? He didn't rebound the same way, defend the same way, set screens well, and he was very soft and aloof on both ends. All of those things those things are internal.

The reporting says the Jazz will give him a bigger role, only time will tell if that's true. I also agree that Hardy has incorrectly valued Kessler's defense, but we're talking about Kessler's actual impact not Hardy's opinion on him. His actual impact, especially if he returns to his rookie year level of play, would elevate the team quite a bit. He had a horrid sophomore season and it's still arguable that we would have won more games had Hardy played him more.

Side note - You choose horrible examples of self sufficient centers lol. Two of those guys had a higher percentage of their baskets assisted than Kessler lol.

 

[jazznik]

What's funny is that you're the one who is hyperfixated on one side of the ball. I mentioned the tradeoff in the post you directly quoted. Did you just choose to ignore when I acknowledged the tradeoff? You quoted it lol, I'm sure you saw it. I guess I'll just say the same thing over again. The tradeoff is WELL in Kessler's favor using your own way of evaluating things. This is clearly evident in the on court net ratings (a very basic way of doing things, but the way you choose to do things). The tradeoff between his offensive/defense ability does lead to a significant amount of more wins for the Jazz. Kessler is a positive player on his own, but this is especially the case for a team whose greatest weakness is his greatest strength. The lowest hanging fruit for the Jazz is defense.

Again, I like Kessler's defense. I like Dunn's defense. I think that both of them should have had larger roles on the team. We are not at all apart in our estimates. But in the post that started this entire discussion you talked only about a massive amount of wins that could be had if the Jazz defensive ranking improved due to playing Kessler more and him being more motivated. I just added some context to it related to the unavoidable offensive drop-off.

I think he's capable of playing at a level he's already played at. It may surprise you, but a player's individual play can also affect their effectiveness. For Kessler, his own personal play was more important than who he was surrounded with. The reasons he struggled last season have nothing to do with who he was playing with. He had more touches and had the ball more his second season. You know what he didn't do? He didn't rebound the same way, defend the same way, set screens well, and he was very soft and aloof on both ends. All of those things those things are internal.
...
Side note - You choose horrible examples of self sufficient centers lol. Two of those guys had a higher percentage of their baskets assisted than Kessler lol.

Again, Kessler cannot generate his own offense. Like, at all. He has no jump shot, no low-post moves, he cannot dribble to the basket. All that he can do is to score off rebounds, in a very precisely executed pick-and-roll, or when other players scramble the defense and he is left in a great position for an uncontested dunk. All of that - besides the rebounding - requires good playmakers creating the opportunities for him. The Jazz does not have good playmakers now.

P.S The percentage of the assisted baskets is not the ideal metric in this regard. For example, a center that is so bad that nobody passes the ball to him would have the assisted percentage at 0% (scores only off broken plays and offensive rebounds), while the center with a great offensive bag will constantly receive passes from even below average passers that he would easily convert. Holmgren, Lopez, Sabonis and Jokic are among the centers with the highest percentage of their baskets assisted.

 

[KqWIN]

Again, I like Kessler's defense. I like Dunn's defense. I think that both of them should have had larger roles on the team. We are not at all apart in our estimates. But in the post that started this entire discussion you talked only about a massive amount of wins that could be had if the Jazz defensive ranking improved due to playing Kessler more and him being more motivated. I just added some context to it related to the unavoidable offensive drop-off.

Again, Kessler cannot generate his own offense. Like, at all. He has no jump shot, no low-post moves, he cannot dribble to the basket. All that he can do is to score off rebounds, in a very precisely executed pick-and-roll, or when other players scramble the defense and he is left in a great position for an uncontested dunk. All of that - besides the rebounding - requires good playmakers creating the opportunities for him. The Jazz does not have good playmakers now.

P.S The percentage of the assisted baskets is not the ideal metric in this regard. For example, a center that is so bad that nobody passes the ball to him would have the assisted percentage at 0% (scores only off broken plays and offensive rebounds), while the center with a great offensive bag will constantly receive passes from even below average passers that he would easily convert. Holmgren, Lopez, Sabonis and Jokic are among the centers with the highest percentage of their baskets assisted.

Well, I guess you haven't really argued against my point at all then. If Kessler plays at his rookie year level for close to 30 MPG it will result in a massive increase in wins. Your numbers support that and are the biggest glowing endorsement of that idea. I never ignored defense, I brought up the main reason why Kessler could lead us to more wins and when you brought up a counter point I addressed it. Thankfully, your own logic made my argument for me. I don't think it's necessary to name every possible pro/con all the time, but happy to address it which is what I did. By the way, talking about his rookie year performance is all encompassing of both his offense and defense....both of which he was a positive. His offensive EPM, BPM, LEBRON, DARKO, and net rating were all positive his rookie year. It's just that his defense is the main selling point and the biggest opportunity for improvement.

You listed guys that rely on having their offense created for them as counter examples, which is why I found it funny. Very rarely are those guys actually creating their own offense. Whether you're relying on a guy to create you a jump shot or a dunk at the rim, it's still relying on another guy to make the play. Of course it's their shooting ability that allows them to have those opportunities happen, but likewise Kessler's size, rebounding ect create his opportunities. Many centers cannot create their own offense, in fact, it's quite rare. It doesn't necessarily mean that most C's are bad and that's especially the case if you're talking about bigs in relation to each other. Kessler was a positive offensive player his first year and can be once again without creating his own shot.

BTW, Jokic and Sabonis are among the centers with the LOWEST percentage of their baskets assisted.

 

[jazznik]

Well, I guess you haven't really argued against my point at all then. If Kessler plays at his rookie year level for close to 30 MPG it will result in a massive increase in wins. Your numbers support that and are the biggest glowing endorsement of that idea. I never ignored defense, I brought up the main reason why Kessler could lead us to more wins and when you brought up a counter point I addressed it. Thankfully, your own logic made my argument for me. I don't think it's necessary to name every possible pro/con all the time, but happy to address it which is what I did. By the way, talking about his rookie year performance is all encompassing of both his offense and defense....both of which he was a positive. His offensive EPM, BPM, LEBRON, DARKO, and net rating were all positive his rookie year. It's just that his defense is the main selling point and the biggest opportunity for improvement.

Oh, I agree completely. I was very disappointed when Kessler was pushed back to the bench because Ainge stupidly invested too much in Collins and was afraid to bench him instead. And for the life of me I cannot understand the obsession that Hardy and Ainge have with the offense in general. That was the Achilles hill of the previous iteration of the Jazz and they are hellbent on rebuilding the exact same team only with new characters.

You listed guys that rely on having their offense created for them as counter examples, which is why I found it funny. Very rarely are those guys actually creating their own offense. Whether you're relying on a guy to create you a jump shot or a dunk at the rim, it's still relying on another guy to make the play. Of course it's their shooting ability that allows them to have those opportunities happen, but likewise Kessler's size, rebounding ect create his opportunities. Many centers cannot create their own offense, in fact, it's quite rare. It doesn't necessarily mean that most C's are bad and that's especially the case if you're talking about bigs in relation to each other. Kessler was a positive offensive player his first year and can be once again without creating his own shot.

Eh, Kessler has nothing special in terms of his size and rebounding ability, he is a run-of-the-mill center in that regard. And that's true, the Al Jefferson type of center died out completely. But it still infinetely easier to generate the offense from the centers who have a jump shot, a reliable hook shot or can dribble a bit. If Kessler had something like that in his bag even our combo guards (Keyonte, Sexton, Clarkson) could set him up well. Even Collins or Brice. But Kessler is such a hard player to set up. On the pick-and-roll you need to have the ball passed to him in a very specific spot where he has two steps to the basket and nobody in the front. And you cannot simply through a ball to him deep at the basket: he does not have the reach and hops of Gobert or even Lively. Again, he needs to be completely open or, at best, have an open lane under the basket for his favorite reversed dunk. It requires a lot of passing skills and the desire to get him involved instead of going to a much better offensive player (and that would be anyone else who is currently on the court for the Jazz).

If only Kessler could develop ANYTHING, even a reliable baby hook, it would unlock so much for him and his team. We'll see soon what he is coming with after the summer. It would be really ironic if the Jazz give up on Kessler, trade him to a team with a competent point guard like Brunson or Ball and he really flourishes there.

 

[jazznik]

Oh, I also know one coach who would absolutely fall in love with Kessler - Jerry Sloan. He would be tough on him, but they would be a good, productive match for years.

 

[KqWIN]

Oh, I agree completely. I was very disappointed when Kessler was pushed back to the bench because Ainge stupidly invested too much in Collins and was afraid to bench him instead. And for the life of me I cannot understand the obsession that Hardy and Ainge have with the offense in general. That was the Achilles hill of the previous iteration of the Jazz and they are hellbent on rebuilding the exact same team only with new characters.


Eh, Kessler has nothing special in terms of his size and rebounding ability, he is a run-of-the-mill center in that regard. And that's true, the Al Jefferson type of center died out completely. But it still infinetely easier to generate the offense from the centers who have a jump shot, a reliable hook shot or can dribble a bit. If Kessler had something like that in his bag even our combo guards (Keyonte, Sexton, Clarkson) could set him up well. Even Collins or Brice. But Kessler is such a hard player to set up. On the pick-and-roll you need to have the ball passed to him in a very specific spot where he has two steps to the basket and nobody in the front. And you cannot simply through a ball to him deep at the basket: he does not have the reach and hops of Gobert or even Lively. Again, he needs to be completely open or, at best, have an open lane under the basket for his favorite reversed dunk. It requires a lot of passing skills and the desire to get him involved instead of going to a much better offensive player (and that would be anyone else who is currently on the court for the Jazz).

If only Kessler could develop ANYTHING, even a reliable baby hook, it would unlock so much for him and his team. We'll see soon what he is coming with after the summer. It would be really ironic if the Jazz give up on Kessler, trade him to a team with a competent point guard like Brunson or Ball and he really flourishes there.

Whatever you think of Kessler's "skill" his offensive impact in his rookie year was positive. This is demonstrated in every metric across the board including the metrics you seem to rely on so heavily. Impact is not "skill" and I do not think Kessler is as bad as you're presenting. For example, Kessler has better skill and touch than Gobert, but Gobert is clearly a better offensive player due to his relentless mentality. Kessler's main drawbacks as a player come with his mentality. But Kessler has his own merits and has demonstrated a higher level of play. As a rookie he was top 4 in offensive rebounding percentage and had he qualified would have been the most efficient player in the league. Of course he's not perfect, but he was really good at certain things and those things are valuable. Almost every C's role is limited, he happens to do important things well and that's how he was a positive player his rookie year despite his limited game.

Even if you disagree with every number in the book and still think he was negative, it's not even close when you're talking about an offense/defense tradeoff. He's a positive player. Positive players help you win. And the simple notion of him playing better, i.e. playing at his rookie year level vs his sophomore year level, will result in more wins. It's exhausting to discuss with you because you're not really arguing, you're just constantly bending over backwards to make things as negative as possible. If I said Kessler sucks badly and that's why this tank is going to work you would find a way to say "actually we're not going to be bad and we're going to win too many games". On top of that, you're willing to pull up fake facts like Jokic/Sabonis being amongst the highest assisted C's. Just not worth the time if you're not willing to have an honest conversation. I would rather talk to a bot programmed to be negative. At least the bot wouldn't make up numbers.

 

[jazznik]

On top of that, you're willing to pull up fake facts like Jokic/Sabonis being amongst the highest assisted C's. Just not worth the time if you're not willing to have an honest conversation. I would rather talk to a bot programmed to be negative. At least the bot wouldn't make up numbers.

You know, instead of personal attacks you could have just asked where I got the numbers from and I would have responded with the link. It's possible that I misinterpreted something, or it could be a stat slightly different from what you used. I was thinking about doing it anyway but then I realized that I somehow lost interest in continuing this conversation. You know, I come here to talk about the Jazz and not for mutual personal attacks. I think that our interests are just different and I wish you all the best in your future endeavors. Goodbye.

 

[KqWIN]

You know, instead of personal attacks you could have just asked where I got the numbers from and I would have responded with the link. It's possible that I misinterpreted something, or it could be a stat slightly different from what you used. I was thinking about doing it anyway but then I realized that I somehow lost interest in continuing this conversation. You know, I come here to talk about the Jazz and not for mutual personal attacks. I think that our interests are just different and I wish you all the best in your future endeavors. Goodbye.

Indeed, I’m here for honest and faithful discussion. I’ll just leave it alone instead of calling it out next time.

 

[KqWIN]

I am not in favor of this kind of move....but a while back I did see some stuff about Randle getting disrespected. Something trivial like his jersey not being available. Regardless, NYK has a huge payroll and he is the obvious player who would bite the dust. I expect him to get moved in the next year or so. He has a player option but could be a FA next summer.

 

[whatthe]

I am not in favor of this kind of move....but a while back I did see some stuff about Randle getting disrespected. Something trivial like his jersey not being available. Regardless, NYK has a huge payroll and he is the obvious player who would bite the dust. I expect him to get moved in the next year or so. He has a player option but could be a FA next summer.

If he comes cheap...and if we can still weaken the roster while getting picks then yeah.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

A Randle/Lauri front-court would be disgusting on offense.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Honestly had no idea Randle took eight 3's per game in 2022-2023 season.