I want apologies for all the Niang hate on this board!!!

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Wow, were you hurt as a child? You carry an awful lot of hostility for an internet conversation where the opinions really aren't that far apart. I hope you find your peace bro. No need to get so mad just because you are losing the argument. You seem like the "come at me bro" guy on the playground.

Besides it's just proof you can't explain the 29 other questionable games and have to pin your entire argument on the one outlier.

Again please find peace bro. I'll pray for you.

lmfao.

You got nothing man. You are on a message board and someone is arguing with you about basketball and you got no idea what you're talking about.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Alright I'll come clean. I didn't cherrypick the last 7 games to demonstrate that I think it's more indicative of the real Niang - obviously it isn't. I did it to show you the extreme version of what you're doing - tossing out outliers willy-nilly, and placing undue importance on a stretch of games that is 1/3 the size of another available population. Last season, in 66 games played, Niang shot 40% from 3 on more attempts per game than this season.

Just as a matter of principle, saying the earlier 23 game stretch this season is more indicative of how Niang will perform going forward than the 66 games from last season is almost as silly as saying the most recent 7 game stretch is more indicative than the previous 23.

See part of me feels like you have a bit of a tendency to place undue weight on negatives. But when push comes to shove, if you were forced to put money on how well you think Niang will shoot for the rest of the season, your answer would be a lot closer to 40% than it would be to 31-32%, right?

Dont come at him with actual facts dude he might break.

 

[fishonjazz]

Everyone has "outlier" games (for both good and bad). Nobody's throwing them out for the final stats, nor should them. As Cy noted, you don't just throw outliers out because they're extreme. You look at outliers and then decide whether there's something so different from the circumstances of all the other cases that this one case justifies being thrown out.

And even if you did decide to throw out outliers for being extreme (again a bad argument), if you want to say that Niang has been shooting badly then you're going to have to factor out outliers for every player. So, I'd ask LR98 how Niang compares to other 3-point shooters once everyone else's outlier games have been excluded.

I would think that most players don't have 7-7 shooting from three as one of their outlier games. Which is a good reason why that game last night is a good candidate for an outlier game.

Jordan Clarkson, Royce Oneal, Donovan mitchell, bogey, jingles are all good 3 point shooters and the jazz are historically great. Have any of them gone 7-7 in a game this year?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[Getting Traded]

One thing not factored in the stats is "clutch 3's." You could say the same about the way Donovan plays in the 4th quarter. When you need a 3, Georges is a good bet to make them (much better, I would wager if someone analyzed this, than 50 percent).

 

[fishonjazz]

Alright I'll come clean. I didn't cherrypick the last 7 games to demonstrate that I think it's more indicative of the real Niang - obviously it isn't. I did it to show you the extreme version of what you're doing - tossing out outliers willy-nilly, and placing undue importance on a stretch of games that is 1/3 the size of another available population. Last season, in 66 games played, Niang shot 40% from 3 on more attempts per game than this season.

Just as a matter of principle, saying the earlier 23 game stretch this season is more indicative of how Niang will perform going forward than the 66 games from last season is almost as silly as saying the most recent 7 game stretch is more indicative than the previous 23.

See part of me feels like you have a bit of a tendency to place undue weight on negatives. But when push comes to shove, if you were forced to put money on how well you think Niang will shoot for the rest of the season, your answer would be a lot closer to 40% than it would be to 31-32%, right?

If I had to guess I would guess that he will be right about in the middle of those 2 numbers.
Right around 35 or 36 percent.
I think he was not shooting the 3 ball very good this season before last nights game (which I think was logs point) and if he was shooting 31 or 32 percent before last night then I guess the question should be asked, is 31 or 32 percent from 3 a good percentage?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I would think that most players don't have 7-7 shooting from three as one of their outlier games. Which is a good reason why they gane last night is a good candidate for an outlier game.

Jordan Clarkson, Royce Oneal, Donovan mitchell, bogey, jingles are all good 3 point shooters and the jazz are historically great. Have any of them give 7-7 in a game this year?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app

Everyone has them though... so if you want to throw out the lowest and the highest games for all these guys that is fine. But for comparison's sake you'd need to do that with everyone and then benchmark Niang against those numbers.

 

[idiot]

I would think that most players don't have 7-7 shooting from three as one of their outlier games. Which is a good reason why that game last night is a good candidate for an outlier game.

Jordan Clarkson, Royce Oneal, Donovan mitchell, bogey, jingles are all good 3 point shooters and the jazz are historically great. Have any of them gone 7-7 in a game this year?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app

Sure it's an "outlier" in the sense that it's extreme. But that still says nothing about whether it should be excluded from an evaluation of his shooting. If you want to go the small-sample-size direction for evaluating his shooting overall, then we can have a conversation. If you want to say that Georges is typically either very hot or very cold, then we can try to analyze that. But you just can't throw out his best shooting game to make the argument that he's not a good shooter.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

For example... Bojan had a game where he went 6/7 from 3... he would be a 37% 3 pt shooter instead of 39% if you threw the game out.

throw out Georges 7/7 and his 1/7 game and he's 33%... but he's got about 450 attempts in his career and shoots it at 38%... by year end he will get around that number.

This year he has forced up some early threes he doesn't normally take... honestly cut those out and I think he's right at his average.

 

[LogGrad98]

lmfao.

You got nothing man. You are on a message board and someone is arguing with you about basketball and you got no idea what you're talking about.

Well you are the one going full on the attack, complete with personal insults, and completely ignoring the data presented. But as long as you can call people names and tell them they don't know what they are talking about I guess you are right. Sure makes you look knowledgeable and important.

Again I really feel sad for you. Find peace bro.

But you might as well bow out since you have absolutely nothing beyond insults to provide to the discussion.

 

[MT Steve]

If I had to guess I would guess that he will be right about in the middle of those 2 numbers.
Right around 35 or 36 percent.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app

Would you actually?

Last season in 66 games he shot 40% from 3. This season in 31 games he's shooting 36.6% from 3.

To predict that he'll finish this season between 35-36% is to say that the first 30 games this season deserve the exact same amount of weight as last season's 66 games (more than double the population).

Why would you believe that though? The larger a population, the more reliable it is, unless there's specific reasons to believe otherwise. I assume recency bias is what's tilting Log to place more weight on this season's 30 games, which is why I made the tongue-in-cheek post earlier praising Niang's previous 7 games, to demonstrate the flaw in that line-of-thinking. Hell even if you throw out last night's game, he was still shooting 42% from 3 over the past couple weeks.

 

[LogGrad98]

Alright I'll come clean. I didn't cherrypick the last 7 games to demonstrate that I think it's more indicative of the real Niang - obviously it isn't. I did it to show you the extreme version of what you're doing - tossing out outliers willy-nilly, and placing undue importance on a stretch of games that is 1/3 the size of another available population. Last season, in 66 games played, Niang shot 40% from 3 on more attempts per game than this season.

Just as a matter of principle, saying the earlier 23 game stretch this season is more indicative of how Niang will perform going forward than the 66 games from last season is almost as silly as saying the most recent 7 game stretch is more indicative than the previous 23.

See part of me feels like you have a bit of a tendency to place undue weight on negatives. But when push comes to shove, if you were forced to put money on how well you think Niang will shoot for the rest of the season, your answer would be a lot closer to 40% than it would be to 31-32%, right?

If you think that outlier was tossed out Willy-nilly then you really don't understand what an outlier is. But that's ok. I don't think that one single game is more indicative of his performance than the other 29 combined. I think he's slipped a little on his 3 pt shot, the data proves that out, and I've expressed that I hope he gets it back.

Again some people's need to belittle and attack over minor **** like this is mind-boggling. He's a 9th player on an incredibly solid team, he's not your brother or your pet. People are taking this so personally.

By the way, I provided ALL the data, even including the 7/7 game. But people lose their freaking minds that I suggested that particular game night not be indicative of his normal performance. They get stuck on that one point and don't look at the rest of it at all.

 

[MT Steve]

If you think that outlier was tossed out Willy-nilly then you really don't understand what an outlier is. But that's ok. I don't think that one single game is more indicative of his performance than the other 29 combined. I think he's slipped a little on his 3 pt shot, the data proves that out, and I've expressed that I hope he gets it back.

Again some people's need to belittle and attack over minor **** like this is mind-boggling. He's a 9th player on an incredibly solid team, he's not your brother or your pet. People are taking this so personally.

By the way, I provided ALL the data, even including the 7/7 game. But people lose their freaking minds that I suggested that particular game night not be indicative of his normal performance. They get stuck on that one point and don't look at the rest of it at all.

I'm not attacking you Log. I'm trying to keep the conversation civil, and I would appreciate it if you would not accuse me of things like "taking this so personally", "lose their freaking minds".

It feels like a projection - and I don't even know how to respond to it.

 

[LogGrad98]

Dont come at him with actual facts dude he might break.

You have yet to provide a single fact and you ignored the facts presented. Seriously are you 12?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Guys... here is the solution to all our problems... ya ready.

Niang shoots 46% on threes at home and 24% on the road.

Bojan shoots 47% from three on the road and 30% at home.

Niang starts the home games and plays 30 minutes... Bojan starts the road games and plays 30 minutes.

You're welcome.

 

[LogGrad98]

I'm not attacking you Log. I'm trying to keep the conversation civil, and I would appreciate it if you would not accuse me of things like "taking this so personally", "lose their freaking minds".

It feels like a projection - and I don't even know how to respond to it.

If you want to take "some people" as meaning you directly that's your choice. I addressed you directly then made a couple of more general comments.

And your started this off previously with a smart-*** comment that you admitted was mocking. Not sure how I'm supposed to take the rest of what you say.

But I did not mean the last 2 paragraphs to be you specifically. Unless you are one of them that got hung up on the "outlier"piece I guess.

 

[LogGrad98]

Guys... here is the solution to all our problems... ya ready.

Niang shoots 46% on threes at home and 24% on the road.

Bojan shoots 47% from three on the road and 30% at home.

Niang starts the home games and plays 30 minutes... Bojan starts the road games and plays 30 minutes.

You're welcome.

Brilliant!

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Brilliant!

Call it Hydra programming.

 

[MT Steve]

If you want to take "some people" as meaning you directly that's your choice. I addressed you directly then made a couple of more general comments.

Gotcha.

And your started this off previously with a smart-*** comment that you admitted was mocking. Not sure how I'm supposed to take the rest of what you say.

It wasn't mocking you personally, it was mocking the principle of using data to support a conclusion while placing the most importance on the most recent fraction of the population.

If it helps, I fall for recency bias all the time. Everybody does. The takeaway wasn't "People who fall for recency bias are dumb", and I apologize if it came across that way.

 

[LogGrad98]

Gotcha.

It wasn't mocking you personally, it was mocking the principle of using data to support a conclusion while placing the most importance on the most recent fraction of the population.

If it helps, I fall for recency bias all the time. Everybody does. The takeaway wasn't "People who fall for recency bias are dumb", and I apologize if it came across that way.

To be fair I was taking this entire season, which is a big enough sample to draw some conclusions.

 

[MT Steve]

To be fair I was taking this entire season, which is a big enough sample to draw some conclusions.

I get that, but think about the volume.

He's shot 37/101 from 3 - 36.6%. If he'd made just 3 more of those 3's - think about that, just 3 total, he'd basically be in line with last year at 40%. Just 3. Spread those 9 points out over this season, we're talking about 0.3 points per game.

With a 40% 3 point shooter, you wouldn't necessarily expect him to make 40 of them every time he takes 100 shots. More realistically, the first 100 might be 35, the next might be 45, etc... Making 37 of 100 isn't alarming for a 40% 3 pt shooter.