I want apologies for all the Niang hate on this board!!!


NUMBERICA

Well-Known Member
People have this weird thing where they think 40% 3pt shooters are going to shoot 40% from 3 every game.

Nah, it doesnt work like that. 40% means he is dangerous and you better check him or a 7/7 game from three is possible. In a small sample size there is going to be variance. If he's at 200 threes on the year and still below 38%, then you can cry about him not having a good shooting year.
Except 38% is also good...

As long as a player shoots at or above 35% from 3, they're shooting good shots. And as long as a player has developed a reputation as a good enough shooter, the player doesn't necessarily need to shoot them to be useful in an offense. Niang has built that reputation at this point, and his numbers are going to come up.

Again, he is a useful player and all of the **** he gets shoveled on him has been out of hand.
 


Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
People have this weird thing where they think 40% 3pt shooters are going to shoot 40% from 3 every game.

Nah, it doesnt work like that. 40% means he is dangerous and you better check him or a 7/7 game from three is possible. In a small sample size there is going to be variance. If he's at 200 threes on the year and still below 38%, then you can cry about him not having a good shooting year.
I think its much harder for bench players to be consistent too. Its hard to jump into the flow of the game and be on fire.

Bojan has been very hot and cold this year too... can't be selective on which games you do and don't include. Ideally shooters would be a little more even but honestly a bit player making 3/4 one night and 0/4 the next might be better than 1.5/4 most games... if that makes sense. In 15 minutes an 0/4 won't kill you... on the right night the 3/4 may have a huge impact.
 

Thee Idiotic Minivan K

Well-Known Member
So here is his 3 pt breakdown this season.

Total for the season so far:

37/101 = 36.6%

But, from the beginning of the season through the end of January:

18/56 = 32.1% (not good at all)

For the month of February:

19/45 = 42.2% (looks pretty good, a nice upswing but see next note)

Now, February MINUS the 7/7 game last night:

12/28 = 31.6%


So overall, not counting the 7/7 from last night:

30/94 = 31.9%

So no, he hasn't been good from 3 this year really at all. That 7/7 game last night brought his totals up to 36, but looking at the much larger sample size for the rest of the year, it does not bode well. Luckily he has a reputation for hitting the 3 that will make teams have to respect him, but so far this year he has just not been good from 3.

Like Bogie, I really hope Niang finds his shot. Without those 2 hitting at their normal 40% clip we are in big trouble when it comes playoff time and the games get much tighter.
That’s the most idiotic excuse I’ve ever heard. He averaged around 6-8 minutes a game the first month. It’s hard to get shots up and maintain an average. I’m sorry you and others can’t candle the fact and truth he’s a good player for this team.
 

fishonjazz

Well-Known Member
Contributor
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
The hate for him here has been overboard, and so has the praise at times, frankly.

Lukewarm take: he is and has been a useful and worthy rotation player, but his slot in the rotation is the clearest spot the Jazz could improve
This.
He is extremely likeable though no matter what his game/stats are like

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
 

LogGrad98

Well-Known Member
Contributor
He's got 6 less made 3's and 4 less attempts than 2 years ago. Wow.

Why are we minusing a game exactly? Do really good games not count to stats anymore?
Actually no it doesn't. In statistical terms it is an "outlier" and does not count toward the real distribution of the process.
 

LogGrad98

Well-Known Member
Contributor
That’s the most idiotic excuse I’ve ever heard. He averaged around 6-8 minutes a game the first month. It’s hard to get shots up and maintain an average. I’m sorry you and others can’t candle the fact and truth he’s a good player for this team.
I love how the only way you and the other dick can argue with this is to invoke ad hominem attacks. Why not argue the numbers? Up until last night's game his 3 pt shot has been just bad, maybe mediocre at best, all season long. But his D is much improved, that has to be noted.

@NUMBERICA said it best...
Lukewarm take: he is and has been a useful and worthy rotation player, but his slot in the rotation is the clearest spot the Jazz could improve
 

Thee Idiotic Minivan K

Well-Known Member
I love how the only way you and the other dick can argue with this is to invoke ad hominem attacks. Why not argue the numbers? Up until last night's game his 3 pt shot has been just bad, maybe mediocre at best, all season long. But his D is much improved, that has to be noted.

@NUMBERICA said it best...
The whole point is it’s easier to shoot a higher % with more attempts. He puts up less attempts and only started getting more minutes recently. Read my damn post better.
 

LogGrad98

Well-Known Member
Contributor
The whole point is it’s easier to shoot a higher % with more attempts. He puts up less attempts and only started getting more minutes recently. Read my damn post better.
But your post is wrong. With more shots his actual percentage went down over the last month. The 7/7 outburst made it look better than it has been for the entire month. For the month of Feb he has been at 31% against 32% through the end of January. Why do you ignore the numbers? You are making a good try at spinning the numbers though, so please continue ignoring the facts.

Here are the fact for the month of Feb, game by game:

1/4
1/4
1/4
1/5
0/2
1/1
4/6
2/4
1/7
0/1
7/7

You tell me what is more likely? A 1/5 game or a 7/7 game?

But you are missing the point that numberica made. He is still filling a valuable role and must be respected due to his reputation and the possibility that he will go off for 7/7 on any given night, and his D has improved. Good on him. But his performance from 3 has not been proving that out, and that is a fact.
 

Saint Cy of JFC

Well-Known Member
Actually no it doesn't. In statistical terms it is an "outlier" and does not count toward the real distribution of the process.
You have to give a better reason to exclude outliers than that. It isnt a blanket thing you do for every statistical data set. You'd be a moron to exclude it in this case.
So you are saying that he was making better than 30% of his shots? Please, show us the numbers to prove this?

Also, reported. As much of a dick as you are I am surprised you haven't been banned before.
Damn, another crybaby who wines cuz his feefees got hurt.
 

Saint Cy of JFC

Well-Known Member
A legitimate reason for removing a statistical game from a data set would be like "Oh the team sat all their main rotation guys and played 10-day contracts, 2-way players, and rookies only, so this game isnt a real representation of the players skill vs NBA talent that is normally present in a NBA game".

Excluding an excellent game vs a good team is NOT a reason to remove a statistical outlier. It's just you being a bitter bitch trying to make Niang look worse because you want to further your BS narrative.
 

MT Steve

Well-Known Member
Contributor
But your post is wrong. With more shots his actual percentage went down over the last month. The 7/7 outburst made it look better than it has been for the entire month. For the month of Feb he has been at 31% against 32% through the end of January. Why do you ignore the numbers? You are making a good try at spinning the numbers though, so please continue ignoring the facts.

Here are the fact for the month of Feb, game by game:

1/4
1/4
1/4
1/5
0/2
1/1
4/6
2/4
1/7
0/1
7/7

You tell me what is more likely? A 1/5 game or a 7/7 game?

But you are missing the point that numberica made. He is still filling a valuable role and must be respected due to his reputation and the possibility that he will go off for 7/7 on any given night, and his D has improved. Good on him. But his performance from 3 has not been proving that out, and that is a fact.
Wow, Niang is 15/26 (57.7%!) from 3 over the last 6 games. If you toss out the 1/7 outlier, it's even better - 14/19 (73.7%!!).

I didn't realize he's been shooting so well recently - thank you for breaking it down in a way that makes it so obvious!
 

LogGrad98

Well-Known Member
Contributor
A legitimate reason for removing a statistical game from a data set would be like "Oh the team sat all their main rotation guys and played 10-day contracts, 2-way players, and rookies only, so this game isnt a real representation of the players skill vs NBA talent that is normally present in a NBA game".

Excluding an excellent game vs a good team is NOT a reason to remove a statistical outlier. It's just you being a bitter bitch trying to make Niang look worse because you want to further your BS narrative.
Wow, were you hurt as a child? You carry an awful lot of hostility for an internet conversation where the opinions really aren't that far apart. I hope you find your peace bro. No need to get so mad just because you are losing the argument. You seem like the "come at me bro" guy on the playground.

Besides it's just proof you can't explain the 29 other questionable games and have to pin your entire argument on the one outlier.

Again please find peace bro. I'll pray for you.
 

LogGrad98

Well-Known Member
Contributor
Wow, Niang is 15/26 (57.7%!) from 3 over the last 6 games. If you toss out the 1/7 outlier, it's even better - 14/19 (73.7%!!).

I didn't realize he's been shooting so well recently - thank you for breaking it down in a way that makes it so obvious!
You're welcome! I hope the current trend continues! Hopefully the last 7 games are what we are really going to get and not the previous 23 games of the season. Minus the 1/7 game of course.


Funny how many people can't read statistical trends.


Also funny how many people are getting bitterly pissed off, almost violently angry, that the data doesn't support their assertions. Sad really.
 

rjfan

Well-Known Member
On a serious note, 7 makes pushing his % from really bad to actually pretty decent should tell that he shoots such a small clip that it gets even more exposed to the simple streaky nature of shooting.

Much more relevant were that his overall game were making him playable through 31% 3pt shooting, even on Conley's absence.

Ps.: I'd be interested on how much better his numbers are for non garbage time, as it seems that in these context he's put as a main threat/creator that he's just not, and i wonder if this is helding his numbers a bit
 

idiot

Well-Known Member
Everyone has "outlier" games (for both good and bad). Nobody's throwing them out for the final stats, nor should them. As Cy noted, you don't just throw outliers out because they're extreme. You look at outliers and then decide whether there's something so different from the circumstances of all the other cases that this one case justifies being thrown out.

And even if you did decide to throw out outliers for being extreme (again a bad argument), if you want to say that Niang has been shooting badly then you're going to have to factor out outliers for every player. So, I'd ask LR98 how Niang compares to other 3-point shooters once everyone else's outlier games have been excluded.
 

MT Steve

Well-Known Member
Contributor
You're welcome! I hope the current trend continues! Hopefully the last 7 games are what we are really going to get and not the previous 23 games of the season. Minus the 1/7 game of course.


Funny how many people can't read statistical trends.


Also funny how many people are getting bitterly pissed off, almost violently angry, that the data doesn't support their assertions. Sad really.

Alright I'll come clean. I didn't cherrypick the last 7 games to demonstrate that I think it's more indicative of the real Niang - obviously it isn't. I did it to show you the extreme version of what you're doing - tossing out outliers willy-nilly, and placing undue importance on a stretch of games that is 1/3 the size of another available population. Last season, in 66 games played, Niang shot 40% from 3 on more attempts per game than this season.

Just as a matter of principle, saying the earlier 23 game stretch this season is more indicative of how Niang will perform going forward than the 66 games from last season is almost as silly as saying the most recent 7 game stretch is more indicative than the previous 23.

See part of me feels like you have a bit of a tendency to place undue weight on negatives. But when push comes to shove, if you were forced to put money on how well you think Niang will shoot for the rest of the season, your answer would be a lot closer to 40% than it would be to 31-32%, right?
 

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