If Lottery Rigging Exist, Aren't the Jazz Safe?

[Tremendous Upside]

Lmao it would not be the end of the NBA. Did Tim Donahue end the NBA? They'd just sweep it under the rug and promise to do better.

My man, you're equating one dirty ref to a decades-long conspiracy operated by the league office – a conspiracy where many multibillion dollar teams were straight up cheated out of a chance to get their hands on generational talent.

No sports organization comes back from that.

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

Looking more rigged lol

8 Times The NBA Lottery Has Looked Completely Rigged - Fadeaway World

The Dallas Mavericks' improbable win of the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery with just a 1.8% chance has reignited conspiracy theories about the lottery being rigged, and we have eight examples through history where it just might be.

fadeawayworld.net

Lol, low probability events happen ALL THE TIME. This includes random lotteries like the NBA and millions of other cases where low-probability outcomes, both trivial and significant, are determined by dumb, random luck.

While a 1% chance is “rare” for a single attempt, if this attempt is repeated, say, 100 times, we should expect it to happen roughly once, on average. The draft lottery is like that. Every year is another trial for low‑probability outcomes. There are multiple low‑probability teams each year, not just one. So instead of asking, “What are the odds this 1% team wins this year?” we should ask, “What are the odds that some 1–5% team wins at least a few times over 40+ lotteries?” That overall probability is quite large.

But why bother with simple, common-sense explanations like this when conspiracies are so much more entertaining and scratch the human itch to see hidden patterns and villains behind ordinary randomness?

 

[Qman]

Lol, low probability events happen ALL THE TIME. This includes random lotteries like the NBA and millions of other cases where low-probability outcomes, both trivial and significant, are determined by dumb, random luck.

While a 1% chance is “rare” for a single attempt, if this attempt is repeated, say, 100 times, we should expect it to happen roughly once, on average. The draft lottery is like that. Every year is another trial for low‑probability outcomes. There are multiple low‑probability teams each year, not just one. So instead of asking, “What are the odds this 1% team wins this year?” we should ask, “What are the odds that some 1–5% team wins at least a few times over 40+ lotteries?” That overall probability is quite large.

But why bother with simple, common-sense explanations like this when conspiracies are so much more entertaining and scratch the human itch to see hidden patterns and villains behind ordinary randomness?

That is just what the hidden villains want you to think.

 

[LogGrad98]

You can't be serious. If it actually turned out that the lottery is rigged – and had been rigged for decades – it wouldn't be a "scandal", it would be the end of the NBA. I can't even imagine the multibillion dollar lawsuits that would follow.

You also forget the owners ultimately control the league. So if it's happening, they are fully aware and likely on board. So who would sue? And they all profit immensely off the gigantic broadcast deals so why would they upend the cart? And exactly what @Saint Cy of JFC said, ultimately it gets swept under the rug. Go back and look at how many lopsided deals have favored the big name teams. LA gets Luka for a damn near literal ham sandwich. Literally EVERY team in the league could have put together a deal like that, but it went to LA, then Dallas gets selected for #1 with 1% odds. Yeah, ok. More success for a flagging LA team, means more fans tune in to national games, means more money on the next TV deal. It's following the money on a league level. A few tweaks here and there keep the top earners competitive, keeps the money rolling in, which hits all franchises, so the owners are cool with whatever it takes to secure the best deals. The owners like the Buss' and Miller's and even Cubans are gone, replaced by billionaires and billionaires groups, no longer passion projects. Now it's billionaire hobbyists and prestige owners who care a lot more about the money. Hell Ryan has had no problem going on and on about his other billionaire hobbies and you rarely hear him say much about the jazz. They fed his other hobbies, so he's happy as long as the money flows. So are most of the other owners. Championships are nice, positive cashflows are better.

 

[LogGrad98]

Lol, low probability events happen ALL THE TIME. This includes random lotteries like the NBA and millions of other cases where low-probability outcomes, both trivial and significant, are determined by dumb, random luck.

While a 1% chance is “rare” for a single attempt, if this attempt is repeated, say, 100 times, we should expect it to happen roughly once, on average. The draft lottery is like that. Every year is another trial for low‑probability outcomes. There are multiple low‑probability teams each year, not just one. So instead of asking, “What are the odds this 1% team wins this year?” we should ask, “What are the odds that some 1–5% team wins at least a few times over 40+ lotteries?” That overall probability is quite large.

But why bother with simple, common-sense explanations like this when conspiracies are so much more entertaining and scratch the human itch to see hidden patterns and villains behind ordinary randomness?

This guy gets it! It's way more fun!

 

[Zombie]

Lmao it would not be the end of the NBA. Did Tim Donahue end the NBA? They'd just sweep it under the rug and promise to do better.

I agree that this kind of scandal wouldn't end the NBA, but it would be worse than the Donaghy scandal by orders of magnitude.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I agree that this kind of scandal wouldn't end the NBA, but it would be worse than the Donaghy scandal by orders of magnitude.

Is it really? I feel like rigging games is much worse than putting prospects in certain situations.

 

[Zombie]

Is it really? I feel like rigging games is much worse than putting prospects in certain situations.

Yes lol, there is an ocean of difference between a rogue referee influencing games he’s gambling on and the league rigging their supposedly impartial draft lottery as a standard practice.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Yes lol, there is an ocean of difference between a rogue referee influencing games he’s gambling on and the league rigging their supposedly impartial draft lottery as a standard practice.

IF you believe the ref was truly rogue I guess that would be the case, but if it's deeper than that I think it would be much much more of an issue.

 

[Zombie]

IF you believe the ref was truly rogue I guess that would be the case, but if it's deeper than that I think it would be much much more of an issue.

Well, that’s what we have evidence for and at the end of the day that’s what the scandal amounted to. Even if the rot was actually deeper than that, the league was able to sweep it under the rug by pinning it on Donaghy. I don’t think they could run that same playbook on a lottery rigging scandal that stretches back for decades.

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

Reading through this thread helps one understand how we arrived at a point where an unhinged conspiracy crank is in charge of our nation's healthcare, and formerly eradicated childhood diseases are making a comeback.

The human capacity to believe BS is unlimited.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Well, that’s what we have evidence for and at the end of the day that’s what the scandal amounted to. Even if the rot was actually deeper than that, the league was able to sweep it under the rug by pinning it on Donaghy. I don’t think they could run that same playbook on a lottery rigging scandal that stretches back for decades.

It was certainly deeper than that. The one bad apple theory hardly applies to anything organizationally.

 

[Zombie]

It was certainly deeper than that. The one bad apple theory hardly applies to anything organizationally.

I guess it depends on what you mean by "deeper than that." Donaghy was probably not the only referee in the history of the NBA to bet on games, and the league obviously bears some blame, organizationally speaking, for allowing it to go on as long as it did. On the other hand, I'm not convinced by the theory that the NBA rigged the 2002 WCF, for example. That's an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence, which is lacking.

 

[HermanG]

Id also like to make myself even more of a villain by pointing out that the mindset that rich people gather to decide the faith of the world is the most peasant mindset ever.

I dont like playing couch psychology games, but my experience is that most rich people are very self-reliant and dont actually bond with each other, especially with those who are richer than they are. They form marriages of convenience but are constantly worried about getting backstabbed because most of them share a "dog eat dog" mindset which helped them build their wealth in the first place. And the minority of them who arent playing hard ball by default are equally or even more worried the others are.

There are also antitrust and cartel laws which would probably send some of these guys from riches to jail if a years long rigging scandal would ever get exposed.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Id also like to make myself even more of a villain by pointing out that the mindset that rich people gather to decide the faith of the world is the most peasant mindset ever.

I dont like playing couch psychology games, but my experience is that most rich people are very self-reliant and dont actually bond with each other, especially with those who are richer than they are. They form marriages of convenience but are constantly worried about getting backstabbed because most of them share a "dog eat dog" mindset which helped them build their wealth in the first place. And the minority of them who arent playing hard ball by default are equally or even more worried the others are.

There are also antitrust and cartel laws which would probably send some of these guys from riches to jail if a years long rigging scandal would ever get exposed.

Plus – it seems the conspiracy theorists in this thread are treating "NBA owners" as some kind of a tight, shadowy cabal of 30 rich persons that can make decisions and keep secrets.

However, there's an absolute **** ton of minority owners too. Are they also "in on it"? I mean shares of teams are constantly changing hands, people are coming in and getting out.

You really think any secret would be safe in that kind of environment?

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Plus – it seems the conspiracy theorists in this thread are treating "NBA owners" as some kind of a tight, shadowy cabal of 30 rich persons that can make decisions and keep secrets.

However, there's an absolute **** ton of minority owners too. Are they also "in on it"? I mean shares of teams are constantly changing hands, people are coming in and getting out.

You really think any secret would be safe in that kind of environment?

The owners and minority owners wouldn't be involved. They wouldn't be "in on it." A relative handful of people in the league front office can do what they decide they need to do to keep the game successful, keep their franchises solvent and generate revenue for everyone. Everyone gets paid regardless of whether any particular team wins or loses games.