If the Jazz are better than expected it's because...

[Handlogten's Heros]

It feels like every year there are at least 2 teams that join the tank race through injury or just slow start. It was what gave me pause when some were like "we won17 games last year... we will be awful... who is worse than us?" All the teams we thought would suck do suck. And the a few teams joined them.

 

[KqWIN]

I think so. If you discard the defense. His first year here he was a better two way player but I think this is the best he's been offensively.

There is however like one forced shot per game that I would love for him to eliminate at some point. Its usually a rushed three off a screen that hits with a thud... you can see it as soon as it happens though.

I think his defense is definitely worse. Maybe he's had some higher highs on offense this season, but overall he's significantly less efficient than he was his first season here. He did have more talent around him back then though.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think his defense is definitely worse. Maybe he's had some higher highs on offense this season, but overall he's significantly less efficient than he was his first season here. He did have more talent around him back then though.

Yeah I kinda factor that in. He has to do more on his own than he did that season. I think he's got more stuff in the bag now. I know he doesn't have a bag per se but I think you know what I mean. He was a legit positive on defense in his first season imo. Now I think he's bad most nights. I think its in there maybe still.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

It feels like every year there are at least 2 teams that join the tank race through injury or just slow start. It was what gave me pause when some were like "we won17 games last year... we will be awful... who is worse than us?" All the teams we thought would suck do suck. And the a few teams joined them.

At least Phoenix is better than expected.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Now I think he's bad most nights.

He's mostly mid.

For a guy his size, Markkanen does a ridiculous amount of defensive work around the perimeter, which obviously takes its toll.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

At least Phoenix is better than expected.

Yes but they were one I wasn't super worried about since their pick goes elsewhere. Clips should pass us. NOP may depend on if we lose all 3 of our back half of the season matchups with them. They may make a late surge.

I think Wash, Bkn, NOP, Charlotte may be tough to beat out. Indiana, Sacramento could really commit to the tank. Clips may just suck... and I'm watching out for Dallas/Chicago/Milwaukee.

If we take a hard tank approach starting right now... I think we have a shot at getting to 4 on the high end outcome. I think we are most likely to land 6th-ish. Still worried about Nepo Ainge and his pride though.

 

[underdog]

I’d say our internal growth and some teams being worse than expected are the most obvious reasons. Then there’s Ryan. Last season, our FO asked Hardy to coach for the tank, which is what shrewd teams have always done when tanking is the goal. But this season, Ryan decided not to allow it because he didn’t want to do “manipulation”. So we’ve won a few games that we would’ve lost otherwise.

 

[underdog]

Yes but they were one I wasn't super worried about since their pick goes elsewhere. Clips should pass us. NOP may depend on if we lose all 3 of our back half of the season matchups with them. They may make a late surge.

I think Wash, Bkn, NOP, Charlotte may be tough to beat out. Indiana, Sacramento could really commit to the tank. Clips may just suck... and I'm watching out for Dallas/Chicago/Milwaukee.

If we take a hard tank approach starting right now... I think we have a shot at getting to 4 on the high end outcome. I think we are most likely to land 6th-ish. Still worried about Nepo Ainge and his pride though.

I’m pretty sure Austin Ainge's main goal this season is to get one of the top prospects from next year’s draft, but Ryan has somewhat tied his hands. Austin knows that this draft is special. With four (possibly more) #1 prospects in it, the opportunity for a tanking team to land a future star has never been better. But he’s in a tough spot now. He may have to trade Lauri. Or maybe I’m wrong about him. Maybe he says screw the draft and the odds, borrows his dad's hunting gear, and goes big-game hunting.

 

[infection]

I’m pretty sure Austin Ainge's main goal this season is to get one of the top prospects from next year’s draft, but Ryan has somewhat tied his hands. Austin knows that this draft is special. With four (possibly more) #1 prospects in it, the opportunity for a tanking team to land a future star has never been better. But he’s in a tough spot now. He may have to trade Lauri. Or maybe I’m wrong about him. Maybe he says screw the draft and the odds, borrows his dad's hunting gear, and goes big-game hunting.

Do we have any evidence for the ‘Ryan wants to win’ narrative other than all of us collectively assuming that the basketball decision is to lose, and we project that on the one we assume to be the professionally reasonable person (GM) and assume that Ryan is the fan whose emotions cloud business decisions?

Is it possible that perhaps the Ainge’s really have a more blasé attitude toward it than us as fans would be comfortable with? Because to me, the FO’s job for tanking isn’t to tell the coach to tank, it’s to hamstring the coach. Why would Ainge need to trade for Nurkic to “balance the roster” if we’re tanking?

My brief is that the Ainge’s come from an experiential bias that tells them things magically coalesce, and when we as fans get baffled by some really short-sighted management issues, it’s easier for us to blame that on Ryan than face the reality that perhaps these short-sighted business decisions are really coming from the guys we’re trusting to be the rational decision makers.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I’m pretty sure Austin Ainge's main goal this season is to get one of the top prospects from next year’s draft, but Ryan has somewhat tied his hands. Austin knows that this draft is special. With four (possibly more) #1 prospects in it, the opportunity for a tanking team to land a future star has never been better. But he’s in a tough spot now. He may have to trade Lauri. Or maybe I’m wrong about him. Maybe he says screw the draft and the odds, borrows his dad's hunting gear, and goes big-game hunting.

So here's the deal. I have been to the more reliable part of the Best Buy parking lot. Baby Ainge is the problem. He claims to be like "pick, no pick maybe we just say eff it and ball". Danny thinks he's crazy. Based on the draft opinions they had... they don't see eye-to-eye all the time. Danny wanted Fears btw. Austin wanted Ace. Not sure how firm a stance either guy had or if Danny also like Ace... but the Fears love was a Danny thing.

Maybe Austin is saying what he needs to get hired and be in with Ryan... but other than being devastated by the lotto I am not sure where the Ryan stuff comes from. I will see if we can get any insight into that specifically. We should get Tony before Christmas.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

So here's the deal. I have been to the more reliable part of the Best Buy parking lot. Baby Ainge is the problem. He claims to be like "pick, no pick maybe we just say eff it and ball". Danny thinks he's crazy. Based on the draft opinions they had... they don't see eye-to-eye all the time. Danny wanted Fears btw. Austin wanted Ace. Not sure how firm a stance either guy had or if Danny also like Ace... but the Fears love was a Danny thing.

Maybe Austin is saying what he needs to get hired and be in with Ryan... but other than being devastated by the lotto I am not sure where the Ryan stuff comes from. I will see if we can get any insight into that specifically. We should get Tony before Christmas.

Even though Fears has been good and looks very promising, that would have been a bad pick with good Keyonte has been.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Do we have any evidence for the ‘Ryan wants to win’ narrative other than all of us collectively assuming that the basketball decision is to lose, and we project that on the one we assume to be the professionally reasonable person (GM) and assume that Ryan is the fan whose emotions cloud business decisions?

Is it possible that perhaps the Ainge’s really have a more blasé attitude toward it than us as fans would be comfortable with? Because to me, the FO’s job for tanking isn’t to tell the coach to tank, it’s to hamstring the coach. Why would Ainge need to trade for Nurkic to “balance the roster” if we’re tanking?

My brief is that the Ainge’s come from an experiential bias that tells them things magically coalesce, and when we as fans get baffled by some really short-sighted management issues, it’s easier for us to blame that on Ryan than face the reality that perhaps these short-sighted business decisions are really coming from the guys we’re trusting to be the rational decision makers.

So my thought is partially that the FO is somewhat fractured in their thoughts and that is part of the reasons we are noncommittal to certain things. I also have been through transition planning with nepo kids and fathers and its like really rough. Kids trying to prove they can be better than dad and his dated ideas.... dad sees son as a bit "wet behind the ears" and dismisses his ideas. I think that is part of what we started brewing here. Then you add in the enormous egos here.

Like do you think Danny heard Austin go "we aren't doing that" in his dismissive tough guy tone and was like "the hell is that supposed to mean?". Now Austin has to swallow his ego to the media and fans to do what he thinks is right... but also sees his dad a few times a week who reminds him of pick protections and says "you sure about that son?". So then instead of agreeing with dad and swallowing his pride he convinces himself that its time to go...

We will see but this stuff is rarely clean and successful.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Even though Fears has been good and looks very promising, that would have been a bad pick with good Keyonte has been.

Agreed... but it also shows they weren't fully convinced on Key at that point. I think Austin likely had a pretty good first draft. I would have loved to see what happens if Ace goes top 4 though because I doubt we were drafting Kon. Seemed like Tre or Fears.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Agreed... but it also shows they weren't fully convinced on Key at that point.

The fear of being replaced by a new draft pick is probably the catalyst for improvement in many cases.

It may well be that Keyonte listened to the Fears rumors and suddenly realized his clock was ticking.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

I’m pretty sure Austin Ainge's main goal this season is to get one of the top prospects from next year’s draft, but Ryan has somewhat tied his hands. Austin knows that this draft is special. With four (possibly more) #1 prospects in it, the opportunity for a tanking team to land a future star has never been better. But he’s in a tough spot now. He may have to trade Lauri.

He may not be able to.