Jackpotting Around - It's Just One Game... But...

[Handlogten's Heros]

So far in the preseason (all of 2 games lol). He's shooting 12 per 36 at 44%. Would put him 3rd in the league in both measures. Insane small sample size theater... but its an overreaction pod... shrug.

I just have reason to believe he has figured out that a couple of his drives or midrange shots should be threes. Defenses will adjust and close out harder likely... which opens up other stuff.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yall getting too nerdy with the shooting stuff.

Do you take a lot of 3's and make a lot of 3's?

If you shoot 8 or more 3's per game and manage to make 40% or above, you are definitely in the conversation for top 5. And if Brice gets the minutes, he will likely be in that range.

That's pretty much how I looked at it. For whatever reason he gets a lot up and makes a lot. Now I want him to get more up. Looks like he will oblige.

 

[KqWIN]

I'm going to regret piling on like this, but I had some time to look up the stats, and I think you are underscoring his degree of difficulty. My guess is he had some of the easiest shots for a volume 3pt shooter due to nobody caring about the Jazz last year.

Here are the numbers:

- 25th in 3PA/100 possessions
- 144th in 3FGMUAST
- 64th in FGA/Off Screens
- 99th in 3PA off pull ups
- He only shot 0.5 3PA/Game when closely guarded (and only shot 30.3% when closely guarded)

I think he first has to get his level of difficulty up (not his fault people have to start respecting him and guarding him closer), and then we can start talking about him with the elite shooters in the NBA. Maybe that happens this year.

Eh....I think a lot of this is subjective. I'd say to each their own when it comes to the criteria on who the top shooters are, but if Brice's degree of difficulty is a limiting factor it means that most catch and shoot players/3 point specialists can be considered a top shooter. The degree of difficulty and volume (in an absolute sense) seem to be the limiting factors for you. And maybe that's the right way to do it....but I think there's a lot of people that would not exclude the 3 point shooting specialists from the conversation. There are a lot of great shooters without a ton of game besides shooting.

For me, anyone who is shooting at that efficiency and volume deserves some attention and consideration.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Eh....I think a lot of this is subjective. I'd say to each their own when it comes to the criteria on who the top shooters are, but if Brice's degree of difficulty is a limiting factor it means that most catch and shoot players/3 point specialists can be considered a top shooter. The degree of difficulty and volume (in an absolute sense) seem to be the limiting factors for you. And maybe that's the right way to do it....but I think there's a lot of people that would not exclude the 3 point shooting specialists from the conversation. There are a lot of great shooters without a ton of game besides shooting.

For me, anyone who is shooting at that efficiency and volume deserves some attention and consideration.

It's all subjective, agreed. I'm actually not arguing with anyone at this point just pointing out the way I'm thinking about it personally.

I think the data is pretty clear to me. Brice isn't respected as a top level shooter yet. Most likely because nobody cares about Utah, but also probably because he hasn't done it for long enough. Once he starts having to shoot more difficult shots to maintain his volume then we'll see if he can maintain his efficiency.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

-18th in 3PA per 100 with non-qualifiers removed.
-Key aspect with good shooters is the amount of times the ball goes in... 15th in the league in percentage.
-Didn't get enough fts to qualify but shot those at 89%.

Again... those are last year's numbers. In a year when he had inconsistent playing time and role. He also plays with very few playmakers. The volume and accuracy is enough to put him in the top 20 shooter convo. This is after one game in which he got 10 up and a few off the dribble and very contested. Its not that deep. Its a homer pick... not a crazy homer pick. He seems to know what he needs to be now and coach seems a in lockstep.

Its also obtuse because maybe people wouldn's say Jokic is a top 6 shooter and there is obviously a case there. For me... when I think of just pure shooting... its "when this guy is open is the ball going in?". I think he will add to his bag as a shooter this year but if he was already getting up 12.5 per 100 he didn't need to force any. IDK... if he hunts his 3p shot aggressively I think it could be pretty obvious he's in the top 10 convo.

The point of my post was really that despite Brice shooting a significant volume, he isn't taking very difficult shots. For most players the degree of difficulty is baked in to the volume, because in order to get high volume you have to be willing to take difficult shots. For Brice this wasn't the case though, most likely because it wasn't a matter of winning or losing against the Jazz to put in the effort to guard Brice closely.

His percentages are based on him hitting open catch and shoot 3's, because he's not great at anything else right now. If your definition of best shooter is like you said, the guy who you feel the best about hitting an open 3, then Brice is right there, no argument. That's just not how I think of it at all, and so it explains my reaction to that comment.

 

[homeytennis]

The point of my post was really that despite Brice shooting a significant volume, he isn't taking very difficult shots. For most players the degree of difficulty is baked in to the volume, because in order to get high volume you have to be willing to take difficult shots. For Brice this wasn't the case though, most likely because it wasn't a matter of winning or losing against the Jazz to put in the effort to guard Brice closely.

His percentages are based on him hitting open catch and shoot 3's, because he's not great at anything else right now. If your definition of best shooter is like you said, the guy who you feel the best about hitting an open 3, then Brice is right there, no argument. That's just not how I think of it at all, and so it explains my reaction to that comment.

I recall last season the Jazz won a couple of road games in a row in Florida with Brice leading the way. Suddenly Brice had to be sat down for awhile with a mystery contusion, strain or pulled giblet. He was a danger to the tank and was off script.

 

[Basketball Novice]

If Brice is that level of shooter/scorer, then he needs to be a focal point for us and ahead of the rest of the guards in the rotation.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

If Brice is that level of shooter/scorer, then he needs to be a focal point for us and ahead of the rest of the guards in the rotation.

Not necessarily. If he cant defend at all (as evidenced by the DJG Island he was on) he's still just a Michael Beasley type player.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Not necessarily. If he cant defend at all (as evidenced by the DJG Island he was on) he's still just a Michael Beasley type player.

You mean Malik Beasley, right.

 

[Basketball Novice]

Not necessarily. If he cant defend at all (as evidenced by the DJG Island he was on) he's still just a Michael Beasley type player.

Malik Beasley was a high level shooter for the Pistons last year. They are going to have big problems trying to replace his production. Think Brice has more talent as an overall scorer as well but I see your point. The shooting/scoring is great but the rest of his game isn't great. But I have high hopes for Brice to be a high impact offensive player.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The point of my post was really that despite Brice shooting a significant volume, he isn't taking very difficult shots. For most players the degree of difficulty is baked in to the volume, because in order to get high volume you have to be willing to take difficult shots. For Brice this wasn't the case though, most likely because it wasn't a matter of winning or losing against the Jazz to put in the effort to guard Brice closely.

His percentages are based on him hitting open catch and shoot 3's, because he's not great at anything else right now. If your definition of best shooter is like you said, the guy who you feel the best about hitting an open 3, then Brice is right there, no argument. That's just not how I think of it at all, and so it explains my reaction to that comment.

I am very curious to see where his development goes. His rookie year was so weird and then last year hit his stride post AS break. Had that small breakout in January and then got hurt iirc. So Mickey Mouse March is a small worry for me and would feed into the "teams don't think about Brice" narrative. I think he and Will have something figured out though and I am curious to see how far they lean in and what it looks like when teams adjust.

If he is an aggressive shooter and teams close crazy hard will that open up stuff like the other night where he gets a bunch of free throws? I'm excited about Brice.

 

[KqWIN]

I am very curious to see where his development goes. His rookie year was so weird and then last year hit his stride post AS break. Had that small breakout in January and then got hurt iirc. So Mickey Mouse March is a small worry for me and would feed into the "teams don't think about Brice" narrative. I think he and Will have something figured out though and I am curious to see how far they lean in and what it looks like when teams adjust.

If he is an aggressive shooter and teams close crazy hard will that open up stuff like the other night where he gets a bunch of free throws? I'm excited about Brice.

I unironically think Brice would be a better player if he was selfish. I think he gets himself into trouble when he’s trying to make decisions and especially the decision to pass/score off the dribble. He’s like 21 so we can give him some more time to figure it out, but the best version of Brice might be the one that only shoots/attacks closeouts to score. He has scoring chops beyond shooting.