That's the problem, though. The assumption is that those at the top are to have superior reasoning and better prognosticating power. When things change it's always that "well X happened and nobody could have predicted X." That's absolutely true and I don't think any of us would argue that. However, there are a whole host of things beyond X, and if it's not X, there's also small possibilities of Q, R, S, and also Y and Z happening. It's not certain, or even likely, that any one of them individually will happen. However, what is nearly certain is that one of them happening has a high enough likelihood that a general strategy around it factors into the equation, so you don't get caught with your dick in your hand saying "nobody could have ever predicted this."
You can't predict the unpredictable. But you can absolutely bank on the presence of a variable that will be unpredictable.