John Hollinger Thinks Conley May Opt Out


Avery

Well-Known Member
My guess is this:
- Conley opts in for next year because, well, $34M
- He does what the team asks, still a role model, yada, yada, yada
- Becomes free and clear in 2021, 33 years old and looks to take a deal on a contender for whatever they might pay for some vet help. Starting or not, he wants the ring

Does Conley really think Utah can be that team 3-4 years down the road? My guess is no, he'll go hitch a wagon to what Kawhi/Giannis are doing.
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
My guess is this:
- Conley opts in for next year because, well, $34M
- He does what the team asks, still a role model, yada, yada, yada
- Becomes free and clear in 2021, 33 years old and looks to take a deal on a contender for whatever they might pay for some vet help. Starting or not, he wants the ring

Does Conley really think Utah can be that team 3-4 years down the road? My guess is no, he'll go hitch a wagon to what Kawhi/Giannis are doing.
This feels right... takes the MLE from a contender after this year unless he balls out and then gets a bigger 1 year offer from a team that misses on its big FA target.
 

Jazzmix

Well-Known Member
What's in it for Conley? From an economic perspective he would be dumb to do this.
I also don't get it. Some possible pandemic effects? What happens with the money of his contract's last year if the next season is completely cancelled? Although I guess it would be rather postponed much further than totally cancelled?
 

Saint Cy of JFC

Well-Known Member
I also don't get it. Some possible pandemic effects? What happens with the money of his contract's last year if the next season is completely cancelled? Although I guess it would be rather postponed much further than totally cancelled?
He could tear his achilles, tear an acl, etc and be looking at minimum contracts for the rest of his career. It's a long-term security thing, especially if he likes the idea of finishing his career in Utah.

Lets say he stays on his current deal and has a decent year (statically similar to this year), then signs for 40 over 3 years.
35 million this year
+40= 75 million over 4 years

What's his best case for his next deal? Let's say he has a better season then this prior year (which is what I think will happen). How much can he get over 3 years? I would think 60 would be the absolute peak. So the max he can make would be 95 million over 4 years.

So the deal Hollinger present would pay him 70-75 over 4 years, so he would only be losing 20-25 million off his max payday (according to my quick logic. It might be less depending on the exacts of the market). I think it's a solid deal if he wants security and likes playing in Utah.
 

Jazzmix

Well-Known Member
He could tear his achilles, tear an acl, etc and be looking at minimum contracts for the rest of his career. It's a long-term security thing, especially if he likes the idea of finishing his career in Utah.

Lets say he stays on his current deal and has a decent year (statically similar to this year), then signs for 40 over 3 years.
35 million this year
+40= 75 million over 4 years

What's his best case for his next deal? Let's say he has a better season then this prior year (which is what I think will happen). How much can he get over 3 years? I would think 60 would be the absolute peak. So the max he can make would be 95 million over 4 years.

So the deal Hollinger present would pay him 70-75 over 4 years, so he would only be losing 20-25 million off his max payday (according to my quick logic. It might be less depending on the exacts of the market). I think it's a solid deal if he wants security and likes playing in Utah.
"Security" my ***. Dude is not a rookie waiting for his first big contract. He already made a ******** of money.. Yeah, I understand what you mean by that of course. But is the uncertainty about next season adding to this calculations? Is it possible that his last year paycheck would be smaller than planned if season is shorter? (Shorter season means also lesser risk of injury). That would add an argument to taking a longer deal.
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
I think there is a lot more in it for Mike than us. It is easier for us to use our full MLE if Mike's deal expires.

Small guards don't age well... he had a good playoff but was largely disappointing this season. He's not getting to the basket as much... not getting to the FT line as much either. This year could be a "slow start" or a sign of things to come. Not damn way I am extending him for 3 additional years.
 

Saint Cy of JFC

Well-Known Member
"Security" my ***. Dude is not a rookie waiting for his first big contract. He already made a ******** of money.. Yeah, I understand what you mean by that of course. But is the uncertainty about next season adding to this calculations? Is it possible that his last year paycheck would be smaller than planned if season is shorter? (Shorter season means also lesser risk of injury). That would add an argument to taking a longer deal.
Yes, security is a thing people care about, especially veterans.

I dont know if it's something Conley cares about, or if he even wants to stay in Utah long-term. I'm just telling you there are legitimate reasons either way.
 

gomretat

Well-Known Member
I doubt it happens but I can make up a scenario where it does. Mike seems to like it here at least he has spoken very highly of his teammates and the comradery here. His play improved a lot after he came off his injury during the last part of the season. It seemed like he had settled in and figured some things out. If he really likes it and realized the market is a big questions mark, why not drop down to 20M and sign for 3 more years. It is not what I would want to happen but I can see a possibility. The question is a lot about what the Jazz FO and QS think about his second half of the year. I would like to see us trade him for a piece that fits better but I dont see it happening.
 

green

Well-Known Member
This feels right... takes the MLE from a contender after this year unless he balls out and then gets a bigger 1 year offer from a team that misses on its big FA target.
I alluded to this earlier. Players have to have money...it's a pride thing. That being said, Conley has made more money than he will ever spend. Money isn't his motivator.

IF he opts out, I don't see him staying in Utah. IF he opts out, I'd bet money he ends up with the Lakers and goes after that ring.
 

Wes Mantooth

Well-Known Member
If you sign him to a 4 year - you are planning on using him as backup PG. Which 17 for a good backup PG is reasonable. John Stockton was still in his prime at 35/36 years old. Now, NO ONE had Stockton-Malone style longevity. But with nutritional supplements of the day and "load management" - I could see Conley being very efficient in a back up role through the age of 37/38 - even one of the best in the NBA.
17 for a backup pg is reasonable? How many backup pg’s in the league make more than, say, 14M right now?
 

latin jazz

Well-Known Member
I don't think I can stomach 4 more years of Conley threads :D

No idea what his priorities are. If he really wants a ring, then he probably opts in and then goes to a contender after this season. He has already made a lot of money. What's the deadline for his option?
 

NUMBERICA

Well-Known Member
This could get the Jazz enough cap to nab Wood if they find a team to dump Ed/TB and let Clarkson walk at what I think is Wood’s maximum starting number ($15 mil/year, but it sounds like it will be less than that, and thus, potentially less bull **** to get the sufficient number).

If you can’t do anything with the savings then it’s ****ing pointless, of course.
 
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Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
This could get the Jazz enough cap to nab Wood if they find a team to dump Ed/TB and let Clarkson walk at what I think is Wood’s maximum starting number ($15 mil/year, but it sounds like it will be less than that, and thus, potentially less bull **** to get the sufficient number).

If you can’t do anything with the savings then it’s ****ing pointless, of course.
There is no number that would surprise me with Wood... high or low.
 

Saint Cy of JFC

Well-Known Member
This could get the Jazz enough cap to nab Wood if they find a team to dump Ed/TB and let Clarkson walk at what I think is Wood’s maximum starting number ($15 mil/year, but it sounds like it will be less than that, and thus, potentially less bull **** to get the sufficient number).

If you can’t do anything with the savings then it’s ****ing pointless, of course.
 
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