John Hollinger Thinks Conley May Opt Out

NUMBERICA

Well-Known Member
He isnt a starter on any of those teams. Those teams shouldnt want to pay him that much money.

Is a team like Detroit/Charlotte really going to want to start him at the 5, especially when both teams have shots at drafting a Wiseman/Okangu?

Is he going to want to go to a bench role in Atlanta/NY/Phoenix? Because both teams have more talented starters already in place at the 5
He’d play the “4“.
 

NUMBERICA

Well-Known Member
I like the idea of Wood as a backup for the Jazz, but I just don't see him as a starter next to Gobert
Market is dry and not many teams need a 5.
Wood is a legit hybrid big and spent about half of his time at the 4 last year.

If the sample size were larger and the market wasn’t **** it would be a foregone conclusion that he gets a max deal. But that’s not the situation, and sample size matters.

I think the Jazz are basically at their ceiling unless they can find a player that provides what Wood did last year. That includes scenarios where they improve at other positions. We could really use the athleticism, size, and versatility, doubly so considering that we don’t know how the Gobert situation is going to play out.

I understand it is well within the realm of possibility that Wood had a flash in the pan season but I believe it’s worth whatever risk would come with putting the Jazz in position to acquire him (which would probably mean losing some combination of draft picks, letting Clarkson walk, and/or dumping Conley by some miracle besides the obvious salary implications down the road).
 

Saint Cy of JFC

Well-Known Member
Wood is a legit hybrid big and spent about half of his time at the 4 last year.

If the sample size were larger and the market wasn’t **** it would be a foregone conclusion that he gets a max deal. But that’s not the situation, and sample size matters.

I think the Jazz are basically at their ceiling unless they can find a player that provides what Wood did last year. That includes scenarios where they improve at other positions. We could really use the athleticism, size, and versatility, doubly so considering that we don’t know how the Gobert situation is going to play out.
If it was a normal market he might get 14 ish. No way in hell is anyone maxing Wood for 9 games of great stats play on a tanking team.

Maybe he's better than I'm giving credit for, but in no normal market is that happening. I don't think it would even happen in the bloated market that was 2016.
 
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infection

Well-Known Member
Staff member
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
If he goes for the MLE I want DL there begging him to pick us.
That would hinge entirely on whether or not he’s on DL’s radar, and I think a guy whose growing popularity came out of nowhere and is pushed by non-insiders would be a huge turn-off for DL (think of Trump/Sanders’ appeal to establishment republicans/democrats [DL being the establishment here]). If he’s not on his radar, there’s no reasonable price low enough where his interest is piqued. We’re talking about pure tunnel vision here.
 

Saint Cy of JFC

Well-Known Member
He'd start for a lot of those teams regardless of who they draft. Atlanta would be a no... but they also may move on from John Collins.

Wood is a 4/5 hybrid and I could see him being someone Phoenix plays alongside Ayton... NY has nothing he could absolutely play alongside whatever they have.

Charlotte is just as likely to take Ball or one of the wings... their frontcourt guys are trash. If you think Wood is a sparkle and fade guy then maybe these teams pass him up. I think he'd be one of the best gambles for any of those teams. If he goes for the MLE I want DL there begging him to pick us.
To be clear, I'd love to have him on the MLE. He isnt a starter on this team though, so I have no idea why he would come here.
 

cowhide

Well-Known Member
If Woods can play the 4 then he would start. He could slide over to the 5 when Rudy sits. Conley, DM, Bogey, Woods, Rudy. That is a nice starting 5. Do not know how the Jazz would be able to acquire him but he definitely makes us better and more athletic.
 

Saint Cy of JFC

Well-Known Member
If Woods can play the 4 then he would start. He could slide over to the 5 when Rudy sits. Conley, DM, Bogey, Woods, Rudy. That is a nice starting 5. Do not know how the Jazz would be able to acquire him but he definitely makes us better and more athletic.
It's not though. You would lose a ton of defense without Ingles or Royce starting. Who is guarding the star wings in that starting lineup?

If we got Wood I'd like to see him be a 25 mpg guy who is the primary backup 5 and plays in some lineups with Gobert.

He isn't a 4. He's a guy who needs to be put in pnr and pnps. With Rudy in the lineup he'd be either be on the perimeter or the dunkers spot
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
To be clear, I'd love to have him on the MLE. He isnt a starter on this team though, so I have no idea why he would come here.
I’d tell him he could start. MLE is way too good of value on him to pass up.

I could see a double sign and trade with Wood and Montrezl where the clippers add other stuff to make it work.
 

FAILED STATE

Well-Known Member
It's not though. You would lose a ton of defense without Ingles or Royce starting. Who is guarding the star wings in that starting lineup?

If we got Wood I'd like to see him be a 25 mpg guy who is the primary backup 5 and plays in some lineups with Gobert.

He isn't a 4. He's a guy who needs to be put in pnr and pnps. With Rudy in the lineup he'd be either be on the perimeter or the dunkers spot
Hey dude.

DM
Royce or Joe
Bojan
Wood
Rudy


That was a tough solution requiring tons of CPU power for regression analyses etc etc
 
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GVC

Well-Known Member
No way in hell is anyone maxing Wood for 9 games of great stats play on a tanking team.
9 games?

Wood played 62 games this season, and was solid all year. If you split his season into 3 periods that roughly follow his minutes increases, it's amazing how consistent he was on a per minute basis.

Per 36 minutes:
EndGMPGPTSTRBASTSTLBLKTOPFFG%3P%FT%TS%+/-Net +/-GmSc
Dec 232715:0021.711.41.20.82.02.32.4.623.417.635.683+5.8+9.019.3
Feb 22020:2520.410.61.61.01.52.33.0.517.326.824.643-0.4+2.317.3
End1534:0423.510.02.01.01.12.32.6.562.410.759.654+0.5+21.519.7

A few other relevant stats:
  • BR has 47% of his minutes at PF and 53% at C
  • 21.6% of his plays were spotups, where his 1.19 PPP put him in the 85.9th percentile (Bojan 1.11, Ingles 1.01, Mitchell 1.10, Conley 1.14, Royce 1.14, Clarkson 1.07)
  • 19.7% of his plays were as a PnR roll man, where his 1.50 PPP put him in the 95.4th percentile (Rudy 1.22)
  • Niang, Bradley, Davis, Green, Morgan and Brantley played a combined 2,672 minutes for the Jazz this past season, an average of 37.1 minutes per game

The Jazz need talent if they want to win. If they can get Wood at anything under $15 million without sacrificing much else, it's a no-brainer. Quin can figure out how to make the lineups work; there are minutes available.
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
9 games?

Wood played 62 games this season, and was solid all year. If you split his season into 3 periods that roughly follow his minutes increases, it's amazing how consistent he was on a per minute basis.

Per 36 minutes:
EndGMPGPTSTRBASTSTLBLKTOPFFG%3P%FT%TS%+/-Net +/-GmSc
Dec 232715:0021.711.41.20.82.02.32.4.623.417.635.683+5.8+9.019.3
Feb 22020:2520.410.61.61.01.52.33.0.517.326.824.643-0.4+2.317.3
End1534:0423.510.02.01.01.12.32.6.562.410.759.654+0.5+21.519.7

A few other relevant stats:
  • BR has 47% of his minutes at PF and 53% at C
  • 21.6% of his plays were spotups, where his 1.19 PPP put him in the 85.9th percentile (Bojan 1.11, Ingles 1.01, Mitchell 1.10, Conley 1.14, Royce 1.14, Clarkson 1.07)
  • 19.7% of his plays were as a PnR roll man, where his 1.50 PPP put him in the 95.4th percentile (Rudy 1.22)
  • Niang, Bradley, Davis, Green, Morgan and Brantley played a combined 2,672 minutes for the Jazz this past season, an average of 37.1 minutes per game

The Jazz need talent if they want to win. If they can get Wood at anything under $15 million without sacrificing much else, it's a no-brainer. Quin can figure out how to make the lineups work; there are minutes available.
Homeboy was good all year. Was good the year before too but in a flash type of mode. It was criminal that he didn’t get more run early.
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
9 games?

Wood played 62 games this season, and was solid all year. If you split his season into 3 periods that roughly follow his minutes increases, it's amazing how consistent he was on a per minute basis.

Per 36 minutes:
EndGMPGPTSTRBASTSTLBLKTOPFFG%3P%FT%TS%+/-Net +/-GmSc
Dec 232715:0021.711.41.20.82.02.32.4.623.417.635.683+5.8+9.019.3
Feb 22020:2520.410.61.61.01.52.33.0.517.326.824.643-0.4+2.317.3
End1534:0423.510.02.01.01.12.32.6.562.410.759.654+0.5+21.519.7

A few other relevant stats:
  • BR has 47% of his minutes at PF and 53% at C
  • 21.6% of his plays were spotups, where his 1.19 PPP put him in the 85.9th percentile (Bojan 1.11, Ingles 1.01, Mitchell 1.10, Conley 1.14, Royce 1.14, Clarkson 1.07)
  • 19.7% of his plays were as a PnR roll man, where his 1.50 PPP put him in the 95.4th percentile (Rudy 1.22)
  • Niang, Bradley, Davis, Green, Morgan and Brantley played a combined 2,672 minutes for the Jazz this past season, an average of 37.1 minutes per game

The Jazz need talent if they want to win. If they can get Wood at anything under $15 million without sacrificing much else, it's a no-brainer. Quin can figure out how to make the lineups work; there are minutes available.
Also his on/off splits were amazing... all the advanced impact metrics love him. It wasn’t just numbers on a ****** team type stuff.
 

NUMBERICA

Well-Known Member
9 games?

Wood played 62 games this season, and was solid all year. If you split his season into 3 periods that roughly follow his minutes increases, it's amazing how consistent he was on a per minute basis.

Per 36 minutes:
EndGMPGPTSTRBASTSTLBLKTOPFFG%3P%FT%TS%+/-Net +/-GmSc
Dec 232715:0021.711.41.20.82.02.32.4.623.417.635.683+5.8+9.019.3
Feb 22020:2520.410.61.61.01.52.33.0.517.326.824.643-0.4+2.317.3
End1534:0423.510.02.01.01.12.32.6.562.410.759.654+0.5+21.519.7

A few other relevant stats:
  • BR has 47% of his minutes at PF and 53% at C
  • 21.6% of his plays were spotups, where his 1.19 PPP put him in the 85.9th percentile (Bojan 1.11, Ingles 1.01, Mitchell 1.10, Conley 1.14, Royce 1.14, Clarkson 1.07)
  • 19.7% of his plays were as a PnR roll man, where his 1.50 PPP put him in the 95.4th percentile (Rudy 1.22)
  • Niang, Bradley, Davis, Green, Morgan and Brantley played a combined 2,672 minutes for the Jazz this past season, an average of 37.1 minutes per game

The Jazz need talent if they want to win. If they can get Wood at anything under $15 million without sacrificing much else, it's a no-brainer. Quin can figure out how to make the lineups work; there are minutes available.
Killer.

Short of the Knicks straight up bailing us out of Conley’s last year, it would require significant sacrifice (some combination of essentially extending Conley at a sufficiently reduced number for next year, losing Clarkson, using picks to jettison TB/Ed), would require the Jazz to field an offer competitive to Detroit’s (and they have a huge cap advantage), and he’d have to want to come here. But if he cares about winning and the Jazz can field a competitive financial offer then I think the Jazz would have the edge.

It’s a lot of moving parts and if I was the Jazz I would throw the kitchen sink at it. Athletic, switchable 4/5s that can protect the rim and hit 3s are uncommon, even those that aren’t as productive/efficient (23 PER, .66 TS%, great WS rate and on/off splits) as Wood has been for two years now. And we could use some Rudy insurance to boot.

It’s worth the sacrifice and the dice-roll.
 
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Wes Mantooth

Well-Known Member
If the backup is your 6th man and a starter quality player, then yeah, it's completely reasonable.
Let’s do the math. On Mitchell + Gobert + Conley at that new 17M price + Bojan @18.7M + Joe @14M + Clarkson + Royce @8.8M in two years.

That’s 58.5M plus Clarkson, Gobert and Mitchell. Plus the filler on our team which would likely be another 5-10M. At least.

Yeah, completely reasonable.

If you’re an L.A. market.
 
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