Kessler's extension

[SoberasHotRod]

Looking at the average salary per contract of the non-star starting centers (excluding old guys and rookies) there seem to be 2 groups:

1. Centers that can shoot 3-pointers or pass: Sabonis (47), Sengun (36), Porzingis (31), Hartenstein (29), with the exception of Wendell Carter (18) and Turner (19).
2. Traditional defensive centers only - Allen (28), Claxton (23), Capela(22), Zubac (20), Poeltl (20), Adams (13), Gafford (13) , with the exception of the multi-DPOY Gobert (37) and the overpaid Ayton (36).

Kessler is definitely in the second group and he is unlikely to become a 4-time DPOY, so realistically his value is somewhere in the 20-28 million range.

I think 20-25 Million is where the Jazz probably start negotiating, but this is all old money. There will be new contracts signed this year that will keep pushing the average up. You also pay a premium for youth.

It's interesting because the Jazz both seem very far away from needing someone like Kessler, but also not in a position to care too much about the tax.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

5/175 to 5/200, the Jazz will be forced to pay him a premium in exchange for him being willing to tank so blatantly last year.

 

[Hedda Gambler]

5/175 to 5/200, the Jazz will be forced to pay him a premium in exchange for him being willing to tank so blatantly last year.

Nah, that is not happening. If his agent tries to go for that, watch him either get traded or forced to go get an offer as an RFA next summer which we can match.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Nah, that is not happening. If his agent tries to go for that, watch him either get traded or forced to go get an offer as an RFA next summer which we can match.

I'm certain the Jazz have already agreed on an extension with Kessler as there's no way he was willing to sit out those games without an extension.

The going rate for a league average center is $25m a year (see, Nic Claxton. Poeltl got $20m a year before the new CBA and probably gets $25m under new CBA). Kessler gets a bump for being so young that he might still have some upside and gets a bump for agreeing to tank for the Jazz. That probably gets him to $35m a year and 5 years is an ideal length for a rookie extension. Hence 5/175m.

 

[Shad]

We still had the worst defense ever in the history of the league, whether you believe we blatantly tanked or not, he was still apart of it.

 

[KqWIN]

I think 20-25 Million is where the Jazz probably start negotiating, but this is all old money. There will be new contracts signed this year that will keep pushing the average up. You also pay a premium for youth.

It's interesting because the Jazz both seem very far away from needing someone like Kessler, but also not in a position to care too much about the tax.

The first years pretty much mean nothing to the Jazz as well. If we expect the cap to go up 10% during these next 5 years, it stands to reason that longer deals are advantageous to a team and will get better over time. Cap goes up 10%, but contracts can only go up 7.5%. So just based on that you’re probably fine, it’s why we may have been fine giving Lauri all that money. Get a front loaded or flat deal and things would really have to go poorly for that contract to be bad 4 or 5 years down the line.

 

[outerspacefan]

So much up in the air depending on next 2 drafts... it could be a whole good or bad new world in no time.
I'd be cautious about committing too much. Proably wise at the moment not going north of 21 or 22 per.

 

[jazznik]

I Kessler gets a bump for being so young that he might still have some upside and gets a bump for agreeing to tank for the Jazz. That probably gets him to $35m a year and 5 years is an ideal length for a rookie extension. Hence 5/175m.

So you are suggesting paying Kessler way more money than to Allen (last year he signed the extension for 3 year 31 million) and almost on par with Sengun, who also signed last year the 5-185 extension?

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

So you are suggesting paying Kessler way more money than to Allen (last year he signed the extension for 3 year 31 million) and almost on par with Sengun, who also signed last year the 5-185 extension?

At no point have I suggested that this is a good idea.

Just that

1. The Jazz and Kessler have obviously agreed to an extension
2. They probably needed to overpay him a good bit to bribe him into tanking.

 

[jazznik]

At no point have I suggested that this is a good idea.

Just that

1. The Jazz and Kessler have obviously agreed to an extension
2. They probably needed to overpay him a good bit to bribe him into tanking.

Did they also bribe Collins, Keyonte, Clarkson and Sexton? The Jazz were sitting everyone for tanking and not just Kessler.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Did they also bribe Collins, Keyonte, Clarkson and Sexton? The Jazz were sitting everyone for tanking and not just Kessler.

None of those guys were playing for a big money extension and Collins and Clarkson were actually hurt, the Jazz just milked those injuries. Clarkson will probably never get a contract above the minimum again, Keyonte is only a second year guy, and Sexton and Collins were never getting extended by the Jazz. Kessler got 7 healthy DNPs while trying to get his first big money contract. He was obviously bribed with a fatter extension that he probably would have gotten otherwise.

Again, the Jazz were trying hard to trade Sexton and Collins and just didn't get any offers while the Jazz almost certainly turned down two Lakers firsts and Knecht for Kessler. You don't do that for a guy you don't plan to extend.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

None of those guys were playing for a big money extension and Collins and Clarkson were actually hurt, the Jazz just milked those injuries. Clarkson will probably never get a contract above the minimum again, Keyonte is only a second year guy, and Sexton and Collins were never getting extended by the Jazz. Kessler got 7 healthy DNPs while trying to get his first big money contract. He was obviously bribed with a fatter extension that he probably would have gotten otherwise.

Again, the Jazz were trying hard to trade Sexton and Collins and just didn't get any offers while the Jazz almost certainly turned down two Lakers firsts and Knecht for Kessler. You don't do that for a guy you don't plan to extend.

I think you are making connections that just probably aren't there. Players don't get to choose if they play or not. It typically doesn't do them any good to fight it. Kessler sitting and not making a fuss about it doesn't really mean anything. It's pretty wild speculation to assume they have some handshake deal agreed to.

Your other point about not trading Kessler is a good one. The Jazz have clearly signaled that they want to keep him and value him. I don't necessarily think it means they value him at a full rookie max, but I'm sure they will offer him a bag.