Keyonte George’s Star Ascension

[fishonjazz]

Agreed, even as a huge Cason Wallace homer, although I think the list of current teams who would prefer Cason over Keyonte would be quite big, but it's really an apples and oranges comparison.

Keyonte : 2.0 OBPM, -2.0 DBPM 0.1 BPM, 0.4 VORP, 2.7 pts better offense ON/OFF, -11.52 worse defense ON/OFF, -8.82 total ON/OFF
Cason: -2.3 OBPM, 3.8 DBPM, 1.5 BPM, 0..6 VORP, 3.17pts better offense ON/OFF, 4.37 better defense ON/OFF, 7.54 total ON/OFF

Porque no los dos? I would love to have both of them on the team. I think everyone knows this by now, but they are childhood friends, and I'm guessing would love to play together.

I was a big cason wallace fan in that draft and only like him more as an NBA player. But I would still take keyonte. I'm a homer for offense though.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

No, I'm saying his role isn't solely on him. Most teams will have one, maybe two defensive first defenders. OKC has 3 at the same position, so each has an easier job if they didn't have that depth. And yes, he is the worse of the 3. That's not a diss, it just is. I don't really care about slight differences in DBPM.

I think we pretty much agree, but I guess I'm not sure what your point in this context is. Are you saying that if Cason was on a different team he wouldn't be a good defender or significantly better than Keyonte? I just think that's clearly not true.

Also, FWIW, Cason's DBPM is 3pts higher than Dort this year.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I think we pretty much agree, but I guess I'm not sure what your point in this context is. Are you saying that if Cason was on a different team he wouldn't be a good defender or significantly better than Keyonte? I just think that's clearly not true.

Also, FWIW, Cason's DBPM is 3pts higher than Dort this year.

Yes, I think if Cason was on a team where he had to have more defensive and offensive responsibility he would be worse on all fronts. Of course he would still be a significantly better than Keyonte on D.

 

[KqWIN]

Really don't understand this idea of scaling defensive responsibility.

Key has potential to be an offensive engine, which is not something Cason has. But I think Cason is a more impactful player right now. Yes, it is possible for a player to shoot less and be more impactful. The gap in defense is too much right now. There are more teams that would prefer Cason and if it's a team that would prefer Keyonte more it's probably not a very good team.

Future state, could go either way. I would be interested to see Cason in larger offensive role and see how that may change his game on both ends. I don't think taking either player should be seen as a slight against the other.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

Here are the third year stats:

Donovan Mitchell: 24.0 PPG, 4.3 APG, 4.4 RPG, 1.0 SPG, on the 45% - 37% - 86% shooting.
Keyonte (so far): 22.9 PPG, 6.8 APG, 4.0 RPG, 0.9 SPG, on the 44% - 34% - 91% shooting.

And Mitchell's stats declined after the hot start, while Keyonte keeps improving his PPG, RPG and shooting percentages every month.

They're the same picture. Their stats would be very, very similar after the end of the season.

one very important stat you left out: TS% Key 60%, Donovan 56%. and Key is a year younger.

 

[NAOS_pt2]

one very important stat you left out: TS% Key 60%, Donovan 56%. and Key is a year younger.

It should also be said that Donovan was doing that with a heavy offensive burden on a winning team.


I'm loving Key's development, but IMO the context of winning basketball is important to keep in mind. It obviously isn't Key's fault that he's on a rebuilding team; and it was Donovan's good fortune to land on a team that could maximize his skillset as it climbed upward through a team-building process. But, yeah, there are a lot more high-pressure/clutch/important possessions when you're on a team that is obessed with winning, not with rebuilding.

 

[jazznik]

one very important stat you left out: TS% Key 60%, Donovan 56%. and Key is a year younger.

It does look likesomething, but the league-average TS% increased by 2% since then, so Donovan had a league-average TS% back then and Key now is +1.5%. I don't think there is a meaningful difference.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

It should also be said that Donovan was doing that with a heavy offensive burden on a winning team.


I'm loving Key's development, but IMO the context of winning basketball is important to keep in mind. It obviously isn't Key's fault that he's on a rebuilding team; and it was Donovan's good fortune to land on a team that could maximize his skillset as it climbed upward through a team-building process. But, yeah, there are a lot more high-pressure/clutch/important possessions when you're on a team that is obessed with winning, not with rebuilding.

it seems to me like that argument can and often does work both ways, however. depending on what angle one wants to use (and i genuinely believe you don't have an angle here) it's either easier to score on a good team or easier to score on a bad team.

i don't believe either is necessary true, but what i do believe is that it's generally (with exceptions of course) easier to put up points on bad teams because you get as many shots as you want, at the same time more difficult to be efficient on bad teams as you don't have as many weapons around you making life easier, getting you better shots, defenses game planning just to stop you, etc.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

It does look likesomething, but the league-average TS% increased by 2% since then, so Donovan had a league-average TS% back then and Key now is +1.5%. I don't think there is a meaningful difference.

and key is still a year younger with that +1.5% over league average. put them both together, it's not a huge difference but it isn't exactly negligible either.