Keyonte George’s Star Ascension

[KqWIN]

Don't know if it's intentional or not, but I don't think we need bad statistical arguments to glaze Key. No need to pull a Locke.

 

[Tom Pitt]

Don't know if it's intentional or not, but I don't think we need bad statistical arguments to glaze Key. No need to pull a Locke.

having the highest usage on the team and being clearly above average TS% is a pretty big deal. that was always Don's issue. He couldnever quite get above league average but the truly great players always do. Not saying Key is a great player. He'll have to sustain it year in and year out. But it is a positive sign being in the 60s at age 22.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

View attachment 19831having the highest usage on the team and being clearly above average TS% is a pretty big deal. that was always Don's issue. He couldnever quite get above league average but the truly great players always do. Not saying Key is a great player. He'll have to sustain it year in and year out. But it is a positive sign being in the 60s at age 22.

Donovan never became anything more than a moderate foul drawer

 

[KqWIN]

View attachment 19831having the highest usage on the team and being clearly above average TS% is a pretty big deal. that was always Don's issue. He couldnever quite get above league average but the truly great players always do. Not saying Key is a great player. He'll have to sustain it year in and year out. But it is a positive sign being in the 60s at age 22.

Kudos for brining up the fact that TS% has increased since then. Numbers have gone up quite a bit in just a few years. I see so many people comparing today’s efficiency to a previous time and that’s just not right. Key is still more efficient in a relative sense, but it’s not as much as it appears on the surface.

But the elephant in the room with all of this is the other side of the ball. I think Key is comparable or maybe even better than Don offensively, but if we’re going to call one player overrated it’s only fair to consider both sides of the ball.

 

[Tom Pitt]

Kudos for brining up the fact that TS% has increased since then. Numbers have gone up quite a bit in just a few years. I see so many people comparing today’s efficiency to a previous time and that’s just not right. Key is still more efficient in a relative sense, but it’s not as much as it appears on the surface.

But the elephant in the room with all of this is the other side of the ball. I think Key is comparable or maybe even better than Don offensively, but if we’re going to call one player overrated it’s only fair to consider both sides of the ball.

yeah I wonder how much the uptick in efficiency is related to how the game is being officiated. I'd have to do a deep dive

 

[TheGoldStandard]

yeah I wonder how much the uptick in efficiency is related to how the game is being officiated. I'd have to do a deep dive

IIRC in the 90s it was around 54/55. I was curious a couple years ago and during prime Stockton years he was averaging around 65% which was top 10-15 all time I think. I wish he would have shot the ball more.

 

[KqWIN]

yeah I wonder how much the uptick in efficiency is related to how the game is being officiated. I'd have to do a deep dive

I think Key is one of the biggest benefactors of the uptick in FT’s. I hate that it’s called this way, but if this going to be the way it is might as well take advantage. He’s made other improvements, of course, but he really has the perfect set of skills to take advantage. I thought he had a chance to be very, very good offensively but this is beyond what I imagined.

Defensively is where it looks really bad on paper. Some of it can be attributed to the weirdness of our situation and numbers being noisy to begin with….but I still think it’s fairly alarming.

I think going from the worst defender to like bottom 25 percentile is doable, however, and that will make a big difference.

 

[TheGoldStandard]

I think Key is one of the biggest benefactors of the uptick in FT’s. I hate that it’s called this way, but if this going to be the way it is might as well take advantage. He’s made other improvements, of course, but he really has the perfect set of skills to take advantage. I thought he had a chance to be very, very good offensively but this is beyond what I imagined.

Defensively is where it looks really bad on paper. Some of it can be attributed to the weirdness of our situation and numbers being noisy to begin with….but I still think it’s fairly alarming.

I think going from the worst defender to like bottom 25 percentile is doable, however, and that will make a big difference.

So far his on man defense from 15 ft and beyond has shown tremendous improvement from last year, and his effort has shown it too. Last year his opponent shot a few % higher than league average and this year it is -1.5ish. His inside d #s are way worse. Likely because not having Kessler behind him makes it harder to play tight as you don't have great backup in the paint.

Of course this stat only tells a fraction of the story, and I still see him take plays off, but overall his defensive effort looks better. The team needs to be better overall but they have looked better on defense over the past couple games.

 

[KqWIN]

So far his on man defense from 15 ft and beyond has shown tremendous improvement from last year, and his effort has shown it too. Last year his opponent shot a few % higher than league average and this year it is -1.5ish. His inside d #s are way worse. Likely because not having Kessler behind him makes it harder to play tight as you don't have great backup in the paint.

Of course this stat only tells a fraction of the story, and I still see him take plays off, but overall his defensive effort looks better. The team needs to be better overall but they have looked better on defense over the past couple games.

Meh…those DFG% numbers don’t say much and especially so the further away you get from the basket.

Adjusted +\- numbers can also be noisy, but what we can say for certain is that we aren’t defending any better when he’s on the court. It’s worse than last season and shockingly bad.

I’ll start to believe his defense is improved and that he’s not one of the worst in the league when we start defending better with him on the court. As good as his offense has been, we’re still getting rinsed when he’s on the court.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Key can "look the part" when he's guarding on the perimeter and the ball is not moving toward the basket, but he seems to give up the second his guy gets a step on him.

It's just about effort. He has the athleticism to be an effective man to man defender.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

I don't think Keyonte's defense has been even remotely good

So you think it's been very bad. That's all I wanted to hear.

, but man, people who access stats driven by all 10 men on the court should be required to sign a disclaimer acknowledging that its a bad stat to try to make a point about an individual's performance.

Individual defensive impact stats treat Keyonte as one of the worst players in the league. That is not a coincidence or a conspiracy. Instead of arguing about the merits or flaws of various stats, we should be looking at the big picture, and the big picture is that Keyonte is a very weak link defensively. He has to get a lot better.

 

[KqWIN]

The dfg% numbers you're sweeping under the rug say a hell of a lot more than the noisy stat you're bringing up that has 9 other external variables going on.

Doubt it. DFG% means you just happen to be the closest player next to a shot. When away from the rim, that includes a lot of open shots. As we know, you can’t really control open shooting. Closer to the rim it could have some validity, away from the rim is way more random.

To be clear, I’m talking about APM statistics that account for all 9 other players on the court. There’s a track record for this and it’s the basis of all higher level analytics. APM is core. I’m very open if you can’t point to anything that shows substance to these DFG%.

I am shocked that when you replace the Kessler minutes with Love minutes at center, it's even worse than last year. Beyond shocked.

I’m speaking to APM metrics, which address this concern.

There isn't a guard in the league who would prevent us from getting rinsed on the court with our lack of rim protection.


I don't think Keyonte's defense has been even remotely good, but man, people who access stats driven by all 10 men on the court should be required to sign a disclaimer acknowledging that its a bad stat to try to make a point about an individual's performance.

Perhaps, but that’s not really the point. It’s not about getting rinsed vs not getting rinsed, it’s about the extent to which we are getting rinsed. Playing with bad defenders and on a tanking team does not absolve him of his defensive output. Key’s RAPM is the worst in the entire league this season. Does that mean he is automatically the worst defender in the league? No…but it does tell us we are getting obliterated with him on the court even when accounting for his situation.

 

[KqWIN]

I don’t mean to rain on his parade either. He could be on a Garland/Maxey trajectory. Offensively he is there. But even though those guys are bad defenders I’m hesitant to say Keyonte is even on their level. To be a str on their level he needs to defend on that level, which is really just going from awful to bad so I think it’s somewhat reasonable.

It’s an important improvement and distinction to make though. It would be like the difference between Maxey and Lavine, for example. Right now I think he’s trending more towards Lavine, who was a 2x all star btw….

I am somewhat of a Lavine apologist.