Lauri Markkanen Hype & Appreciation Thread
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Tremendous Upside
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Incredible stat IMO. Not sure it's sensible for a 7 footer to log this many miles from a longevity point of view, but… there you go. Dude's an animal.
View: https://x.com/utahjazz/status/1748535867193647361?s=61&t=VV_qVGyPbT-6khMCEbrxDw
View: https://x.com/utahjazz/status/1748535867193647361?s=61&t=VV_qVGyPbT-6khMCEbrxDw
Just an FYI, he has the most distance traveled on the Jazz, not the entire league. I got confused at first....but I'm not sure these distance metrics mean much to begin with.
fishonjazz
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Thanks for the clarity. I figured it was most on the nba
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Pacers Inquired With Jazz On Trade For Lauri Markkanen
Pacers Inquired With Jazz On Trade For Lauri Markkanen - RealGM Wiretap
basketball.realgm.com
Step-Back Lauri
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The 24 Players Who Deserve to Be 2024 NBA All-Stars
Breaking down our official starters ballot for Indianapolis, plus bench picks for the East and West rosters
www.theringer.com
Lauri getting quite appraisal in this, it summarizes well, why every team wants him.
He needs to learn to draw fouls better.
HermanG
Well-Known Member
His FTR is 0.350 which is actually damn amazing for a guy who takes 50% of his FGA from 3 point range.
I mean asides from Dame, I'm not sure how many guys are out there who take such a large share of their shots from 3 point range have that kind of FTR.
Just randomly checking guys:
Paul George is around 50/50 with 2 pointers and 3 pointers, and has an FTR of 0.208
Desmond Bane is around 50/50 and has an FTR of 0.202
Donovan is more like a 55/45 guy, still with FTR of 0.294
Mikal Bridges is a 60/40 guy with a FTR of 0.309
KAT is 65/35 guy with FTR of 0.318
Siakam has exactly the same amount of FT's and slightly better FTR at 0.355, but he takes just 23% of his shots from deep
KD has the same FTR as Siakam at 0.355, but he also takes 27% of his shots from 3
Then if you look at another elite spot up shooter Klay who is a 40/60 guy, his FTR is just 0.150
Another different kind of comp:
If we assume Lauri hasnt been fouled from 3 that much, and most of his FTs are following his 2PA. We can compare that to Zion, who has 6.8 FTA at 14.5 2PA (for FTR of 0.470), while Lauri has 5.6 FTA and 8.1 2PA (for FTR of 0.691)
HermanG
Well-Known Member
Decided to stick to this topic as its actually quite interesting,
NBA wide FTR is 0.203, with 60.7% of FGA being 2 pointers and 39.3% being 3 pointers. So all the guys I listed on that previous post are actually way better than average at drawing FTs, but Lauri is essentially in the 2nd tier only behind the most elite guys.
Only 5 of the 51 players in the NBA with 6+ 3PA per game have a better FTR than Lauri, and those guys are known for being great to elite at drawing fouls: Lillard, Young, Luka, Tatum and Harden.
NBA wide FTR is 0.203, with 60.7% of FGA being 2 pointers and 39.3% being 3 pointers. So all the guys I listed on that previous post are actually way better than average at drawing FTs, but Lauri is essentially in the 2nd tier only behind the most elite guys.
Only 5 of the 51 players in the NBA with 6+ 3PA per game have a better FTR than Lauri, and those guys are known for being great to elite at drawing fouls: Lillard, Young, Luka, Tatum and Harden.
- Tatum and Luka are essentially tied with Lauri if we factor in the 2P/3P ratio, as they are both 57/43 guys with FTR at around 0.374
- Young is better than Lauri at 0.415 rate and 53/47 ratio
- Harden and Lillard are CLEARLY the best foul drawers out of all high volume 3P shooters, as Harden has 0.440 FTR with 41/59 ratio and Dame has 0.462 FTR with essentially 50/50 ratio
Tremendous Upside
Well-Known Member
Good statistical deep dive. To sum all this up: when Lauri goes inside the arc, he's actually good at drawing fouls. But since, as you said, he's taking a **** ton of 3's and almost never gets fouled on those, the eye test fails in this case.
Sorry, but this is misleading. Lauri is a unique player and plays in a system where he shoots 3s or a lot in the paint. Basically very little midrange, like players like George and Leonard. He definitely gets to the line, but his body takes a lot of abuse to get there. The eye test will tell anyone that. Per 36 Lauri takes 10 shots from 2. Lillard takes 9.3 yet Lillard takes 3.2 more FTA per game because he is good at drawing fouls.
Luka takes 4.4 shots within 5 ft per 36, Lillard is at 4.9 and Lauri takes 4.5. Luka takes 10.4 FTA, Lillard at 9.5 and Lauri at 6.3. This is misleading too as these guys are both good at drawing fouls out of the paint too.
Luka and Damien are good at creating foul contact by being crafty, with fakes, arms sweeps, etc. SGA (who drives a lot) is too, frustratingly so. Lauri just goes hard and takes a ton of abjse to get to the line. I'm surprised he does not get hurt more.
Just watch Lauri play, he is tough and creates contact on drives, but gets fouled hard and truly earns his FTs. Lauri is already a very efficient player. If he starts adding a bit of the crafty play that top players do to draw contact, he'll become elite. And with his FT%, there is no reason not to. It will also make him harder to defend.
Tremendous Upside
Well-Known Member
I see your point, but you can't compare Lauri with guys who have the ball all the time like Dame and Luka. It's very hard to get those types of star calls as an off-ball player who has only the 3rd highest usage % on his own team. Lauri gets a lot fewer touches and takes fewer shots than you'd expect for an All-Star scorer, but the main ingredient for his elite efficiency is the ability to use those touches in an incredibly productive way, both directly and indirectly. In short, good things happen when he touches the ball.
Getting to the line for a few "extra" times per game is a very good skill to have in the NBA, but I'm not sure there's a lot of room for foul merchantry in Lauri's game/role as it is. Fishing for calls is always a risk, and IMO it's usually better for Lauri to use his touches by actually trying to score or facilitate. You can't really argue with with the numbers.
It's true that he gets mugged in every single game trying to cut through he lane or get separation from his face-guarding defender, but NBA refs just aren't willing to make those off-ball calls that often unless you're a superstar (or Walker Kessler getting intentionally hacked).
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HermanG
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I am misleading?
First off, you compared them combining PER36 2PA and PER GAME FTA. How is that fair and not misleading? Lauri averages 2.0 less FTA on per36 than Dame, not 3.2.
Secondly, you intentionally or by accident skewed those per36 numbers to be favourable to Dame. Below is a screenshot from ACTUAL per36 numbers. Lauri incidentally averages exactly as many 2PA and 3PA per36 than Dame at 8.9, so not 10 vs 9.3, which made this easy to filter to those two.
Tatum is the best "player comp" to Lauri that I can think of, and Per36 he is at 7.3 FTA with 19.4 FGA (out of which 11.1 are 2PA). So Lauri with 1.1 FTA less on 2.2 2PA less is pretty much on par with Tatum.
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Tanktastic
Well-Known Member
It wasn't. The "drawing fouls" part of some of those players mentioned happens after 3-8 seconds of dribbling the ball. If Lauri starts being "crafty" that way, all we'll get is a ****-ton of turnovers. Of course Lauri isn't gonna play like a Dame or a Luka.
But getting him the ball on more of his cuts and post-ups would be valuable, even if he's not going to always get the most high value shot out of those.
And Lauri *is* crafty in other spots. When the opponent is in the penalty (esp. 2nd half) you'll see on the cuts and dives and screens Lauri flailing like the inflatable tube man and bouncing as if he's half his actual strength. And getting a lot of those off-ball calls and more FTs.
I was pulling some of the numbers from NBA advanced and it was not sorting per 36, at least on the page I was on.
Again, my point was not that he doesn't get to the line, it is the punishment he takes to get there. Compare the contact Tatum takes to get his FTs vs Lauri. Compare the times Tatum falls hard compared to Lauri. Lauri gets hard fouls called for him. And he does a good job, but to become elite he needs to look to draw easy fouls, especially as he ages. He can't sustain the punishment his body takes long term.
Dirk is a good example. Not a great driver, but used a lot of fakes to get FTs without a lot of drives.
Tremendous Upside
Well-Known Member
Speaking of Dirk... one area where Lauri DOES need to improve is shot fakes. Not necessarily for drawing fouls, but getting past people near the perimeter.
I once watched a video of Kobe Bryant explaining that experienced defenders look at the feet of shooters when closing them out. They do this because some players reveal their intentions when doing a shot fake by slightly moving back the foot they like to push off of. That's how you know they're gonna try to blow past you instead of taking the shot. Their feet are not set.
If you watch Lauri at the perimeter, he literally does this every time. Guys are simply not falling for his shot fakes. Compare with someone like Kevin Love, who's slow but still has one of the deadliest "shot fake to side dribble" combos in the league. Defenders are flying at him because he takes extra care not to give anything away. Feet always set.
When I play basketball I don't even make up my mind whether or not I'm going to shoot until the pump fake is nearly complete. Lauri should be more like me.