LDS church membership statistics

[Stoked]

Interesting. Because when you see a photo album of somebody's mission or something, it's usually replete with photos of them looking all lovey dovey with their MPs. And they'll be Facebook friends with them after and talk about future reuions and everything. My brother's even stayed at our house when I was little a few times when they would come to Utah.

So what is that relationship typically like on a mission? How often do you seem them/check in with them or whatever?

I do not think I have a single photo with my MP in it. (My second MP. The first one was a cool guy)

Most missionaries are that way, or at least have a mutual respect, with their MPs. As for how often you see them it depends on the mission and MPs. I saw mine about once every 2 months. During the last 6 months I say him every month unfortunately.

 

[colton]

Yeah, I was under your last pres for a few months, I can see him having that approach.

Ah, couldn't remember when you moved to East Germany.

Btw, I had 5 mission presidents if you count the MTC.

Pinnegar
Burton
Harper
Paul
Meiser

Wow can't believe I could remember all the names. lol

Of them all Burton was my favorite. Awesome dude. We still keep in touch somewhat.

Impressively long list! Yes, Burton was awesome. Also my favorite of the three I had (Pinnegar, Burton, Harper). Don't think I've talked to him since 1990, so he probably doesn't remember me--but say "Hi" from me next time you talk. Tell him his work ethic (among other things) was very influential in a young missionary's life.

 

[colton]

My brother's mission president did countless idiotic things (mandated his missionaries to knock doors on thanksgiving and Christmas.... Limited email to like 1 email/letter to the family per week, and other ridiculous rules). Would it surprise me if this over zealous and quite honestly, ignorant man advised missionaries who to get married to and when? Nope.

That wasn't in California, was it? When I was ward mission leader in Berkeley we had a mission president like that. After they stood up my friends (didn't show for a dinner appointment, and didn't call to say they couldn't make it because there was a "no calling members" rule temporarily in place), I had to give the missionaries a lecture that basic politeness fell under the "loving your neighbor as yourself" commandment and trumped following stupid mission rules.

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

Very well done, thanks Colton. You obviously have waaay to much spare time on your hand

I just have a couple of thoughts.

As for 'exponential growth,' the growth curves look pretty straight to me, I don't see evidence of increasingly rapid growth/exponential growth in the curves, which, if true, should have an increasingly steep slope. Right? Am I missing something or just misinterpreting?

I think that many of us who have been in developing countries have seen how the Church creates branches, wards, stakes, etc. that consist of smallish units that struggle mightily with activity and having sufficient Priesthood to make the unit function. The developing world is full of these types of units. Plus, the reality is that in many developing countries, given poor road infrastructure and lack of transport, I imagine many smallish and weak units are created just for logistical purposes. So, I tend to find the unit growth statistic less impressive than you. That said, you said the membership per unit is increasing (I did not see that graph--is there there and I"m being dumb?), so that appears to contradict what I just said. I wonder how much of unit membership growth is a function of merging units, probably some, but perhaps not too too much?

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

In all due respect to Dalamon's faith...... but I believe the Muslim faith is one religion that does more harm to the world than good. Which is sad because it it really is a small percentage. But when the country's dominant faith is Muslim that country doesn't add much value to the world besides poverty and violence.

https://www.religionfacts.com/islam/places/top_50.htm

That's funny, I think the exact same thing of Christianity. Perhaps less so today, but certainly in the past where Christianity was one of the primary forces of oppression, corruption, murder, human rights abuses, etc. in the entire world.

I'll freely confess, that I'm not a fan of the quite sexist world-view of Islam, particularly in developing countries, and there are other aspect of the religion that bother me, but so to am I not a fan of much of what I view in Christianity, particularly among ardent Evangelicals, who I consider backward, bigoted, intolerant, delusional, and possessing a very strong streak of anti-Democratic authoritarianism in them (along with anti-science magical thinking that they want to impose on the rest of society). I think here the old phrase about those in glass houses throwing rocks is not bad advice.

 

[colton]

Very well done, thanks Colton. You obviously have waaay to much spare time on your hand

Well, it took perhaps an hour. And I was interested, so I figured it was time well spent.

I just have a couple of thoughts.

As for 'exponential growth,' the growth curves look pretty straight to me, I don't see evidence of increasingly rapid growth/exponential growth in the curves, which, if true, should have an increasingly steep slope. Right? Am I missing something or just misinterpreting?

I'll admit it's subjective. I made the blue/green plot first (growth rate), and analyzed that before even making any of the other plots. And to me it looked pretty reasonable to say that within scatter that their are two regions with different growth rates, each region having a more-or-less constant rate within the region. That would imply exponential growth, as you know. Then I made the blue/black plot (#stakes and #wards), and thought that interpretation still was reasonable.

I think that many of us who have been in developing countries have seen how the Church creates branches, wards, stakes, etc. that consist of smallish units that struggle mightily with activity and having sufficient Priesthood to make the unit function. The developing world is full of these types of units. Plus, the reality is that in many developing countries, given poor road infrastructure and lack of transport, I imagine many smallish and weak units are created just for logistical purposes. So, I tend to find the unit growth statistic less impressive than you. That said, you said the membership per unit is increasing (I did not see that graph--is there there and I"m being dumb?), so that appears to contradict what I just said.

I didn't graph that, but you can see the numbers if you click on the link that's in the first post of the thread. Yes, a very clear increase in #members per unit.

I wonder how much of unit membership growth is a function of merging units, probably some, but perhaps not too too much?

I don't know how to get at those numbers, but you could be right. It could be partially that, and partially an increase in the number of inactive members.

Edit: here's the link again to the raw numbers, in case you don't want to go back to post #1: https://www.physics.byu.edu/faculty/colton/personal/lds/membership statistics.html

 

[framer]

I would suspect that the digital records processing project made the difference in 1999. It wasn't long after that when they went to digital scanning of temple recommends, records verification at the local ward and stake level, and numerous other technology upgrades that we see nowadays. Also newborn BIC's are assigned a membership record number.

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

It goes both ways. There's many Islamic organizations that denounce extremism, suicide bombings, and civilian deaths-- but they are never given as much attention as the extremist factions of islam

That unfortunately appears to be the case. I frequently read Islam-a-phobes bewailing why moderate Muslims aren't out there condemning the acts of violence/terrorism done by extremists (I don't actually think they care whether they are condemning it, as this is just an excuse for them to justify their Islamaphobia.) In fact, many moderate Muslims are condemning these acts--it's just that they don't get the press. But a quick google search will show anyone who's actually interested in this (rather than just looking for some low effort excuse to be a bigot) to find out for him/her self.

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

I love that you give an example of the same exact mistake you are making. So much for the chance to learn.

Indeed. The 'they're doing it to" or 'two wrongs make a right' argument are so self-evidently a bad ones that we routinely teach our children that they're bad arguments. Yet, as adults, many of us continue to use this tired rationalization with abandon.

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

ok, a quick read of some of the more recent posts in the other thread (and we need two threads about this because...) is that some sort of a prophesy has been made about the growth of the LDS church and if the church leadership can't show numbers to back up this prophecy it might lead some believers to question the prophecy, and perhaps question the value of their membership in the church? Or something like that...

at least that's my simplistic interpretation of the other thread

and why are there two threads again?

To try to answer your question, at least from my perspective, for what it's worth. It is an interesting topic because for years now, the LDS Church has both informally (part of LDS culture) and formally referenced high growth rates as evidence of the Church's divine mission and its truthfulness. This includes interpreting Daniel 2 as prophesying the rise of the Mormon Church, and the rapid growth being a fulfillment of this prophecy. For rank and file, the rapid growth rates also provide a comforting 'social proof' that serves to validate their own beliefs. So, the way I see it, if the LDS Church and its members like to think such things and make such claims, it's of interest to some see whether the evidence actually supports these claims. From where I sit, if LDS members are uncomfortable that other people put their claims to the test, they ought not make the claims to begin with.

 

[addictionary]

It tastes ****ing amazing. There's also this thing called turkish pizza (Lahmacun I think its called?) which is also delectable.

Yeap. And they are pretty friggin amazing too. But nothing is better than Alexander Doner.

 

[jimmy eat jazz]

My mission president asked if I wanted to talk to him about anything before I left. I told him no and I hope to never see or speak to him again. He asked me to leave and I got up and left. Took us about 30 seconds.

Great story. It made me smile for some reason. I take it you did not get along with your MP?