Let’s talk about NBA stats

[One Brow]

By the process of creating these statistics, you always distort the reality of the game in an attempt to reflect that reality.

 

[fishonjazz]

I kinda hate what 'stat's have done to sports, and basketball is a big offender.

I watch games like a math problem now, especially if I am interested in the player doing well. I'm always just mentally ticking misses or makes what kind of shot, etc. it doesn't feel right. Like when the big man puts up 5 shots and they all come out but he keeps grabbing the misses and he finally puts it in. My reaction is usually "Sucks for the shooting percentage, nice rebounds though" Isn't that just a dumb thing to think instead of wow great effort? Surely I'm not the only one who sees the late close out 'contest' on defense, jump to put a hand up , and after the swish "Op, well now that guy was the closest defender, that's gonna hurt their defense stats" I could go on, but I think you get it.

And basketball compounds the problem because it seems like many teams and players are completely coasting through the regular season. Donovan Mitchell goes for 30 a night, plays amazing, is an all NBA level player. And then just gets smothered in the playoffs. Like did any of his VORP or LEBRON, BPM etc stats in the regular season give a single indication that he would **** his pants as soon as the playoffs started? And there are a million variables you could explore, because we basically default to "Well no one was trying in the regular season anyway, especially on defense" so what are we even learning with all these regular season stats?

Good post

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I kinda hate what 'stat's have done to sports, and basketball is a big offender.

I watch games like a math problem now, especially if I am interested in the player doing well. I'm always just mentally ticking misses or makes what kind of shot, etc. it doesn't feel right. Like when the big man puts up 5 shots and they all come out but he keeps grabbing the misses and he finally puts it in. My reaction is usually "Sucks for the shooting percentage, nice rebounds though" Isn't that just a dumb thing to think instead of wow great effort? Surely I'm not the only one who sees the late close out 'contest' on defense, jump to put a hand up , and after the swish "Op, well now that guy was the closest defender, that's gonna hurt their defense stats" I could go on, but I think you get it.

And basketball compounds the problem because it seems like many teams and players are completely coasting through the regular season. Donovan Mitchell goes for 30 a night, plays amazing, is an all NBA level player. And then just gets smothered in the playoffs. Like did any of his VORP or LEBRON, BPM etc stats in the regular season give a single indication that he would **** his pants as soon as the playoffs started? And there are a million variables you could explore, because we basically default to "Well no one was trying in the regular season anyway, especially on defense" so what are we even learning with all these regular season stats?

I think it helps and hurts... I remember in HS starting out a game and hitting 2 threes ( I was supposed to throw into the post but the other team was in a zone and had clogged the paint)... third trip up the floor I shot another open one but missed. Time out and substitution... and my *** is on the bench. "We can't shoot threes all night".

Okay coach.

I think they tell part of the story and can be helpful... but they aren't the story itself.

The one thing I truly think is dumb is that hardly any players are willing to do the end of quarter heave. They need to make it so heaves aren't considered FG attempts unless they go in... heaves are sooooooo fun.... make basketball fun again.

 

[LogGrad98]

I kinda hate what 'stat's have done to sports, and basketball is a big offender.

I watch games like a math problem now, especially if I am interested in the player doing well. I'm always just mentally ticking misses or makes what kind of shot, etc. it doesn't feel right. Like when the big man puts up 5 shots and they all come out but he keeps grabbing the misses and he finally puts it in. My reaction is usually "Sucks for the shooting percentage, nice rebounds though" Isn't that just a dumb thing to think instead of wow great effort? Surely I'm not the only one who sees the late close out 'contest' on defense, jump to put a hand up , and after the swish "Op, well now that guy was the closest defender, that's gonna hurt their defense stats" I could go on, but I think you get it.

And basketball compounds the problem because it seems like many teams and players are completely coasting through the regular season. Donovan Mitchell goes for 30 a night, plays amazing, is an all NBA level player. And then just gets smothered in the playoffs. Like did any of his VORP or LEBRON, BPM etc stats in the regular season give a single indication that he would **** his pants as soon as the playoffs started? And there are a million variables you could explore, because we basically default to "Well no one was trying in the regular season anyway, especially on defense" so what are we even learning with all these regular season stats?

Great post. Agreed.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

I think it helps and hurts... I remember in HS starting out a game and hitting 2 threes ( I was supposed to throw into the post but the other team was in a zone and had clogged the paint)... third trip up the floor I shot another open one but missed. Time out and substitution... and my *** is on the bench. "We can't shoot threes all night".

Okay coach.

I think they tell part of the story and can be helpful... but they aren't the story itself.

The one thing I truly think is dumb is that hardly any players are willing to do the end of quarter heave. They need to make it so heaves aren't considered FG attempts unless they go in... heaves are sooooooo fun.... make basketball fun again.

Yea it's also a larger scale than my post made it.

How teams plays is entirely informed by these stats now. Yes it does make way more sense for teams to shoot a million threes, but it doesn't make for a better product. This infests the playoffs as well, where every team bombs so many threes that if one team is hot and the other isn't the game is just over immediately, not fun or competitive at all. Three point variance feels like the deciding factor so often, and can lead to awful games, as the team getting blown out just keeps jacking threes on the off chance they will get hot instead of trying to chip away at a big lead.

Analytics just about killed baseball as well, and they are now trying to recover with rule changes. It's why football is forever the best sport. Fantasy football is the most played game in the world, obviously the stats matter, but they don't really change how teams play. It's always trying to outscheme, outcoach, and just beat the guy and the team in front of you. There is so much going on, that advanced stats just have very limited value. It's really about one thing:

 

[KqWIN]

These ideas also create some conundrums... like what am I supposed to do with FVV who is a **** TS% guy and a high +/- guy?

Easy, there are so many ways to impact the game besides TS%....and it's important to understand the context behind the shots that are producing that TS%.

 

[fishonjazz]

Yea it's also a larger scale than my post made it.

How teams plays is entirely informed by these stats now. Yes it does make way more sense for teams to shoot a million threes, but it doesn't make for a better product. This infests the playoffs as well, where every team bombs so many threes that if one team is hot and the other isn't the game is just over immediately, not fun or competitive at all. Three point variance feels like the deciding factor so often, and can lead to awful games, as the team getting blown out just keeps jacking threes on the off chance they will get hot instead of trying to chip away at a big lead.

Analytics just about killed baseball as well, and they are now trying to recover with rule changes. It's why football is forever the best sport. Fantasy football is the most played game in the world, obviously the stats matter, but they don't really change how teams play. It's always trying to outscheme, outcoach, and just beat the guy and the team in front of you. There is so much going on, that advanced stats just have very limited value. It's really about one thing:

make or miss league in many ways

 

[infection]

The one thing I truly think is dumb is that hardly any players are willing to do the end of quarter heave. They need to make it so heaves aren't considered FG attempts unless they go in... heaves are sooooooo fun.... make basketball fun again.

No you just dribble that ball for 3-4 seconds until there’s no more air. Maybe do some slam dribbles. The Donovan special. You don’t wanna look desperate. Keep your integrity.

 

[r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t]

The one thing I truly think is dumb is that hardly any players are willing to do the end of quarter heave. They need to make it so heaves aren't considered FG attempts unless they go in... heaves are sooooooo fun.... make basketball fun again.

The easy solution is to just make them worth more points... way more points. 5, 7, 9, whatever. It would make the end of blowout games interesting, teams setting up plays to shoot half court shots!

 

[Elizah Huge]

Myself personally I love what nba.com does regarding 2-5 player lineups with their offensive and defensive ratings. No real use to use that until we get at least a 20-25 game sample size. It is a good way to see how certain guys play together and what our best lineups are offensively and defensively.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Easy, there are so many ways to impact the game besides TS%....and it's important to understand the context behind the shots that are producing that TS%.

I understand... was making a joke based on having two measures that I like and having them say two completely different things. I'm a fan of FVV

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The easy solution is to just make them worth more points... way more points. 5, 7, 9, whatever. It would make the end of blowout games interesting, teams setting up plays to shoot half court shots!

Nah too gimmicky... just make end of quarter heaves not count as a miss. If it goes in it counts as a make.