SoberasHotRod
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Tanking with Lauri was what I wanted, and so I can't complain, but I think it might feel different right now if we were actually this bad vs artificially this bad.
Looking ahead to 2025-2026
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Tanking with Lauri was what I wanted, and so I can't complain, but I think it might feel different right now if we were actually this bad vs artificially this bad.
I generally echo this statement, but I guess I want to just tuck in the evergreeen critique that the way we tanked the previous two seasons was really dumb:
1) The Jazz should have gutted the roster before the ‘22-‘23 season even started (I recall some reporting that the Jazz could’ve gotten the same pick or better from the Lakers but the Jazz held out for more [only to end up gifting the Timberwolves a swap of the WOAT for the GOAT of culture/chemistry]).
2) The Jazz probably should have just played it straight last year and likely conveyed the pick to OKC to unlock any optionality next year when the protections are lower, the draft is good, and the Jazz own swap rights to two other teams. They probably could still have done the trades to get #29 and #32 and made the play-in because they were also sitting players and other chicanery.
But yeah. TLDR; I feel you.
SoberasHotRod
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Most of the smart posters on here were saying we needed to dump Mike/etc to be as bad as possible for the best chance at the Wemby sweepstakes. That isn't even hindsight, that was just Ainge being stubborn.
With Cody looking as bad as he currently does it certainly feels like we might have been better off conveying that pick. I think that point is debatable at this point, but mostly with hindsight.
Your first point is pretty relevant to this thread and the poll though. The majority (53%) of people, including me, voted in the poll of this thread to see how things go to start the year and make adjustments at the deadline. That "see how it goes" strategy is what we did in the 22-23 season that ended up with the 9th pick. If we don't pick a lane going in to 25-26 we could seriously be in danger of losing out on AJ/Peterson/Boozer/Etc and not have any pick in 2026, while still not being anywhere close to a contending team.
I think tank with Lauri has gone about as well as you can expect. Having said that, we probably lost significant value in a potential Lauri trade by not dealing him earlier. With perfect hindsight, I think definitely deal Lauri before the season and tank as usual....not for better lotto position but just so we don't have Lauri drop major value. I think tank with Lauri was viable if we saw more out of our existing young guys, but we haven't gotten a real breakout season other than Walker returning to form.
fishonjazz
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The problem with this is, as many have pointed out many times, the odds that you can just get the guy you want are really really low. If we already get super lucky and get Flagg then I would doubt we would get lucky again and get AJ (I understand that isn't how odds work and what happens in one lottery has no bearing on another lottery, but still)
Building a team seems like playing a card game. You get dealt your picks and get to choose from whatever players are available. Drafting a guy who turns into a superstar, like Kawhi, Giannis or Jokic, starts to seem like pure luck. The best strategy is just to get lots and lots of picks to improve your deal flow.
This article is extremely relevant to this thread. I'm just not sure how much of this is based on intel from the front office or just her opinions:
State of the Utah Jazz’s rebuild: Just how long is this going to take?
How long until the Jazz start winning games? What happens next year?www.deseret.com
I think that Keyonte is basically tracking to be like Tyler Herro. He can be your 4th or 5th starter, or he can come off your bench. His efficiency is fine if his role and usage are kept in line and he doesn't try to do too much.
His lack of defense is a concern though, just as it's been with Tyler Herro.
The Jazz would have a 1.96% chance of getting the #1 pick two years in a row if they finish bottom-3 in both of those years.
It would also be pretty hard to finish in the bottom 3 if you get Flagg. I would be pretty shocked if they traded Lauri once getting Flagg.
Cleveland's path is interesting:
** 2017/18: Wins 50 games, drafted Collin Sexton #8 (from Brooklyn)
** 2018/19: Wins 19 games, drafts Darius Garland #5
** 2019/20: Wins 19 games (shortened season), drafts Issac Okoro #5
** 2020/21: Wins 22 games, drafts Evan Mobley #3
** 2021: Trades for Lauri Markkanen
** 2021/22: Wins 44 games, drafts Ochai Agbaji #14
** 2022: Trades Sexton, Markkanen, Agbaji and a bucket of draft picks for Donovan Mitchell, betting the farm that he'll extend with them.
** 2022/23: Wins 51 games, loses in the 1st round of the POs due to injuries
** 2023/24: Wins 48 games, loses in the 2nd round
** 2024: Gets Donovan Mitchell to extend for 2 years, plus a player option on a 3rd year
** 2024/25: Wins 60+ games to finish #1 in the Eastern Conference
A total of 8 years to reach true contention. Donovan is in his 8th year. Garland is in his 6th year. Mobley is in his 4th year.
** 2017/18: Wins 50 games, drafted Collin Sexton #8 (from Brooklyn)
** 2018/19: Wins 19 games, drafts Darius Garland #5
** 2019/20: Wins 19 games (shortened season), drafts Issac Okoro #5
** 2020/21: Wins 22 games, drafts Evan Mobley #3
** 2021: Trades for Lauri Markkanen
** 2021/22: Wins 44 games, drafts Ochai Agbaji #14
** 2022: Trades Sexton, Markkanen, Agbaji and a bucket of draft picks for Donovan Mitchell, betting the farm that he'll extend with them.
** 2022/23: Wins 51 games, loses in the 1st round of the POs due to injuries
** 2023/24: Wins 48 games, loses in the 2nd round
** 2024: Gets Donovan Mitchell to extend for 2 years, plus a player option on a 3rd year
** 2024/25: Wins 60+ games to finish #1 in the Eastern Conference
A total of 8 years to reach true contention. Donovan is in his 8th year. Garland is in his 6th year. Mobley is in his 4th year.
SoberasHotRod
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They would have an 11% chance of landing Flagg or Harper and AJ or Peterson or Boozer.
fishonjazz
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Exactly. If we get Flagg then mission accomplished and let's ****ing go!
The only real negative is that the tank has been partially successful because Lauri had a pretty bad year.
And while it has been nice for Collins to have a career year, it hasnt resulted in a positive gain for Utah (yet) because he still wasnt tradeable (at least for something Utah deemed positive value vs keeping Collins).
SoberasHotRod
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Having potentially 3 guys in the 2026 draft on Flagg's level makes tanking even more appealing because you have much better odds to get at least one of them. We'll see if they all live up to expectations like Flagg has, but thats part of the calculation here.
I know I keep posting contradictory stuff here, but that's because I don't think the answer to this is easy.
I know I keep posting contradictory stuff here, but that's because I don't think the answer to this is easy.
SoberasHotRod
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From an unemotional standpoint the tank has been an amazing success so far. It has exceeded my expectations.
Yeah, and the games have been mostly watchable.
HadAnEffectHere
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The other guys are not nearly as good, but it's like, normal.
Karim Lopez is playing well as a 17 year old in Australia.
He had some impressive moments against the Jazz in preseason. But he didn't strike me as a real tanking prize. But, as you say, he's 17. I'm really bad at judging what high NBA potential either looks like or doesn't look like at that age.