Looking ahead to 2025-2026

[idiot]

This article is extremely relevant to this thread. I'm just not sure how much of this is based on intel from the front office or just her opinions:

State of the Utah Jazz’s rebuild: Just how long is this going to take?

How long until the Jazz start winning games? What happens next year?

www.deseret.com

Great article. Thanks for the post. Andy Larsen seems to suggest that it's in line with what he's hearing behind the scenes as well.

It seems that the Jazz are heading toward a (somewhat deliberate, slow) total teardown in order to try to finish bottom-3 at least two years in a row. I'm wondering what's the best results from such a teardown have been from other teams?

Maybe the best example is Cleveland (in various iterations)? I don't think OKC can count, as they really didn't fully tear down, and only got one top-5 pick that (and is still only the second or third best player on the team). Certainly the Duncan Spurs don't count. Maybe current Detroit (we'll see how far they can go)? Certainly The Process 76ers, who maxed out with 2nd-round appearances. Maybe the current Spurs, who like us spent two seasons with win totals in the 30s, before getting down to the 20s? I don't remember how much the Wade-drafting Heat was the product of a total teardown.

Are there others you can think of?

 

[KqWIN]

I don't really even care about historical precedent, I think what matters is the actual decision in front of us. If not tank, what then? Whatever another team did before us isn't really relevant unless they faced a similar decision. I don't even think our decision needs to be centered around the tank/no tank framework....we probably consider the draft too much in our team building considerations. Important questions are what we do with the vets and what we do with our stockpile of assets.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Great article. Thanks for the post. Andy Larsen seems to suggest that it's in line with what he's hearing behind the scenes as well.

It seems that the Jazz are heading toward a (somewhat deliberate, slow) total teardown in order to try to finish bottom-3 at least two years in a row. I'm wondering what's the best results from such a teardown have been from other teams?

Maybe the best example is Cleveland (in various iterations)? I don't think OKC can count, as they really didn't fully tear down, and only got one top-5 pick that (and is still only the second or third best player on the team). Certainly the Duncan Spurs don't count. Maybe current Detroit (we'll see how far they can go)? Certainly The Process 76ers, who maxed out with 2nd-round appearances. Maybe the current Spurs, who like us spent two seasons with win totals in the 30s, before getting down to the 20s? I don't remember how much the Wade-drafting Heat was the product of a total teardown.

Are there others you can think of?

The Sonics/Thunder post Ray Allen immediately comes to mind.

 

[idiot]

The Sonics/Thunder post Ray Allen immediately comes to mind.

Yeah, of all of the teams that coulda/shoulda gotten to the top, they're probably #1

 

[KqWIN]

Having potentially 3 guys in the 2026 draft on Flagg's level makes tanking even more appealing because you have much better odds to get at least one of them. We'll see if they all live up to expectations like Flagg has, but thats part of the calculation here.

I know I keep posting contradictory stuff here, but that's because I don't think the answer to this is easy.

Is it difficult for the emotional reasons? Tanking absolutely sucks so I won't quabble with anyone who doesn't want to do that, but from an unemotional standpoint I don't really know what the other plan is? Do we stand pat as we are? Do we try to go for a Fox/Ingram level player and try to win more?

 

[fishonjazz]

Is it difficult for the emotional reasons?

Yep. For the fun reasons. For the joy reasons. For the love of jazz basketball reasons.
I'm the guy who never missed a jazz game. Didn't matter if it was pre season, or summer league or a game enes kanter was playing in Europe.

Now i miss games all the time.
I miss living and dying by each game. Being excited for each game. Watching the games standing up and pacing and jumping up and down and yelling in my living room. I miss being super bummed when the jazz have 3 days off in a row.

 

[NUMBERICA]

This article is extremely relevant to this thread. I'm just not sure how much of this is based on intel from the front office or just her opinions:

State of the Utah Jazz’s rebuild: Just how long is this going to take?

How long until the Jazz start winning games? What happens next year?

www.deseret.com

Finally read the piece: holy smokes. These cats are locked in on tanking next year more than I thought. Sounds like we should continue to consider the possibility of trading Kessler (and/or Lauri) if it gets in the way of tanking again next year.

 

[fishonjazz]

Finally read the piece: holy smokes. These cats are locked in on tanking next year more than I thought. Sounds like we should continue to consider the possibility of trading Kessler (and/or Lauri) if it gets in the way of tanking again next year.

Trading Kessler just seems weird. I feel like the reason for tanking is to get really good young players on similar timelines.
Basically you are tanking to get players like Kessler.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Trading Kessler just seems weird. I feel like the reason for tanking is to get really good young players on similar timelines.
Basically you are tanking to get players like Kessler.

Your point is valid but there are reasons for others to be on the fence. On the one hand, I think it’s easy in this day and age to under-appreciate the impact or the difficulty of replacing very good but basic centers. On the other hand, he’s a very good basic center that makes a huge impact on the game and the difference between a good basic center and one that will probably be a perennial all-defensive team candidate is significant. Then there’s the question of the viability of players in his archetype playing heavy minutes in the playoffs and how much cap you might be devoting to such a player.

I’d keep him unless there’s a big trade offer out there for him. But I think that there might be a big trade offer for him which means I also think he’s going to command a contract that might be problematic.

I’m not agitating to get rid of him, I’m just saying that it is a very easy decision when they’re on a rookie contract.

 

[fishonjazz]

Your point is valid but there are reasons for others to be on the fence. On the one hand, I think it’s easy in this day and age to under-appreciate the impact or the difficulty of replacing very good but basic centers. On the other hand, he’s a very good basic center that makes a huge impact on the game and the difference between a good basic center and one that will probably be a perennial all-defensive team candidate is significant. Then there’s the question of the viability of players in his archetype playing heavy minutes in the playoffs and how much cap you might be devoting to such a player.

I’d keep him unless there’s a big trade offer out there for him. But I think that there might be a big trade offer for him which means I also think he’s going to command a contract that might be problematic.

I’m not agitating to get rid of him, I’m just saying that it is a very easy decision when they’re on a rookie contract.

Really good post.
Question: knowing what we currently know about Kessler where would he get picked in this draft?
Like Kessler is playing at Auburn right now. You can see into the future for 3 years of kesslers nba career and you know he will be top 2 in the NBA at defending the rim. You know he will be a rebounding machine. You know he will lead the league in shooting percentage. You also know he will suck at free throws and have no offense other than right at the rim and screen setting.
Where do you draft him?
Top 20? Top 10? Top 5?
Just curious. Not that I'm using your answer to make any kind of point or anything.

 

[Tanktastic]

You don't. Unless you know you're going to be a contender for the next years. Then with whatever pick you have / can get outside of maybe top4 in an average year. Although, in a draft like last year's, you might even take him #1.

 

[framer]

Really good post.
Question: knowing what we currently know about Kessler where would he get picked in this draft?
Like Kessler is playing at Auburn right now. You can see into the future for 3 years of kesslers nba career and you know he will be top 2 in the NBA at defending the rim. You know he will be a rebounding machine. You know he will lead the league in shooting percentage. You also know he will suck at free throws and have no offense other than right at the rim and screen setting.
Where do you draft him?
Top 20? Top 10? Top 5?
Just curious. Not that I'm using your answer to make any kind of point or anything.

I mean I would take him top 5 in a redraft of his ACTUAL draft year, 7th at worst if you have irrational belief in some of the others.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Really good post.
Question: knowing what we currently know about Kessler where would he get picked in this draft?
Like Kessler is playing at Auburn right now. You can see into the future for 3 years of kesslers nba career and you know he will be top 2 in the NBA at defending the rim. You know he will be a rebounding machine. You know he will lead the league in shooting percentage. You also know he will suck at free throws and have no offense other than right at the rim and screen setting.
Where do you draft him?
Top 20? Top 10? Top 5?
Just curious. Not that I'm using your answer to make any kind of point or anything.

Top-10.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Jazz pretty clearly turned down a first, a swap, and Knecht for Kessler at the deadline so I assume they're keeping Kessler so they can try to instantly compete if they get Flagg or AJ or Peterson or Boozer.

The issue is that the way we're tanking is by dramatically limiting Kessler's games played, so we're probably going to have to overpay Kessler by a lot to make him feel like we're not ****ing with his money.

Kessler is probably worth 5/125, but we're probably going to have to give him around 5/175 to get him to shut up and not talking about being intentionally rested.

 

[rjfan]

Top-10.

But right around 7-10, right (unless a class that kinda like 24)

 

[rjfan]

I see this core in kinda of a limbo of "there's a bunch of intriguing talented dudes, but not a single clear number one guy yet, and the potential number 2 is the oldest guy that could be considered a long term piece, and for as much easy is to facilitate for him in a variety of ways, he can't really create his own shot", so even If you're getting Cooper, unless Cooper's rookie season is already something like Mitchell's rookie season, and/or someone (or a group of players) else is taking considerable leaps for the next year, we might be aiming for at least another top pick in another loaded draft (maybe more loaded than this one).

And I believe we should be agressive early in our tanking If we're going for that. Not necessarily trade Lauri, but getting rid of Sexton, Clarkson and Collins, whatever the way that is, getting pennies on the dollars, burning seconds, buyout still in the offseason, instead of at or after the trade deadline, etc, as we need to be bottom 8, not bottom 10, and next season should be harder to bottom out the west.

 

[fishonjazz]

I see this core in kinda of a limbo of "there's a bunch of intriguing talented dudes, but not a single clear number one guy yet, and the potential number 2 is the oldest guy that could be considered a long term piece, and for as much easy is to facilitate for him in a variety of ways, he can't really create his own shot", so even If you're getting Cooper, unless Cooper's rookie season is already something like Mitchell's rookie season, and/or someone (or a group of players) else is taking considerable leaps for the next year, we might be aiming for at least another top pick in another loaded draft (maybe more loaded than this one).

And I believe we should be agressive early in our tanking If we're going for that. Not necessarily trade Lauri, but getting rid of Sexton, Clarkson and Collins, whatever the way that is, getting pennies on the dollars, burning seconds, buyout still in the offseason, instead of at or after the trade deadline, etc, as we need to be bottom 8, not bottom 10, and next season should be harder to bottom out the west.

Ya I'm hoping we don't tank next season but if we do then trade Lauri, Collins, Sexton, Clarkson, and just turn the team completely over to all the young guys and let them develop and let us learn about them while tanking hard. If tanking is the team's plan next year then I want them to be successful at it.
Though I'm hoping that we get Flagg, sexton, Lauri and Collins all play like all stars, Clarkson plays like 6th man of the year, key, Collier, flip, Cody, Hendrix, all take a nice leap, juzang is a sniper, Kessler is defensive player of the year, Hardy finally shows everyone why he was so highly routed, Flagg wins rookie of the year and we cruise to the 5th/6th seed in the playoffs.
(Plus substitute some of the rotation for some win now free agent pick ups and/or trades for win now players using some picks or whatever)

 

[rjfan]

Ya I'm hoping we don't tank next season but if we do then trade Lauri, Collins, Sexton, Clarkson, and just turn the team completely over to all the young guys and let them develop and let us learn about them while tanking hard. If tanking is the team's plan next year then I want them to be successful at it.
Though I'm hoping that we get Flagg, sexton, Lauri and Collins all play like all stars, Clarkson plays like 6th man of the year, key, Collier, flip, Cody, Hendrix, all take a nice leap, juzang is a sniper, Kessler is defensive player of the year, Hardy finally shows everyone why he was so highly routed, Flagg wins rookie of the year and we cruise to the 5th/6th seed in the playoffs.
(Plus substitute some of the rotation for some win now free agent pick ups and/or trades for win now players using some picks or whatever)

Thing with Markannen is that as long as the other shot creators/offense initiators are not that reliable (and even more as he plays to get reps in getting better as an on ball creator, as he did much more this year, especially earlier on) he doesn't hurt the tank that much, but as soon as you try to play compete, he can be a really good 2nd or mainly 3rd guy, that would be happy to stay here (he's white, he's european, he's a married dad and willing to not move cities every year, he's not a Giannis or Jokic that even not as much naturals for marketing as a Luka or Wemby, would earn waaaay more endorsements money playing in LA or NY simply by being a top5 player). So as long as there isn't a godfather offer out there, I'd be willing to trade all the other vets and keep him, even If telling him to check on the military If he needs to serve another year there.

 

[Tanktastic]

(and even more as he plays to get reps in getting better as an on ball creator, as he did much more this year, especially earlier on)

That lasted for all of 3½ games until he did his back. After that there has been less on ball stuff than the last two seasons.

So as long as there isn't a godfather offer out there, I'd be willing to trade all the other vets and keep him, even If telling him to check on the military If he needs to serve another year there.

This whole season has turned him into maybe 60 % of what he was. Just jacking bad threes, because that's what Hardy has told him to do in order to get some stats at least. Another year like this and he'd possibly be barely at starter level. And you can't just push a button and a player suddenly is at All Star level again.

Any offer for Markkanen in the summer is a good offer. Unless Ainge & Smith decide tanking is over.

 

[Coach Ellis]

I fully expect to see DA/JZ make some trades that consolidate players for one big acquisition. Offseason or at the deadline, this is the year to do something - otherwise they squander about $70 million in expiring salaries.

Core / Young Players
01 - Lauri Markkanen (28 - $46.4)
02 - Walker Kessler (24 - $4.9)
03 - Top 5 Rookie (19/20)
04 - Kyle Filipowski (22 - $3.0)
05 - Isaiah Collier (21 - $2.7)
06 - Keyonte George (22 - $4.3)
07 - Taylor Hendricks (22 - $6.1)
08 - Cody Williams (21 - $5.7)
09 - Brice Sensabaugh (22 - 2.7)
10 - Gabriel Prodica (23 - no buyout)
11 - Top 25 Rookie (19/20/21)

Possible trade or cut players
11 - John Collins (28 - $26.6 PO)
12 - Collin Sexton (26 - $19.2 expiring)
13 - Jordan Clarkson (33 - $14.3 expiring)
14 - KJ Martin (24 - $8.0 non/g)
15 - Johnny Juzang (24 - $2.8 non/g)
16 - Svi Mykhailiuk (28 - $3.7 non/g)
17 - Micah Potter (27 - 2 way/FA)
18 - Oscar Tshiebwe (26 - 2 way/FA)
19 - Jaden Springer (23 - $2.4 non/g)
20 - Elijah Harkless (25 - 2 way/$0.6)