Lottery-ball z

[Handlogten's Heros]

I guess the only thing from saying that full on tank isn’t the right move is that there isn’t a huge difference between the lotto positions. Going full tank has had its value greatly diminished. I think Lauri is worth the slightly less chance of getting Cooper Flagg and the expected value drop in pick position. If you do hit Lady Luck and get Flagg it would be awesome to have Lauri there. So in that case it would have to depend on the trade package and Lauri’s willingness to be on a team that sucks.

OTOH, pushing forward to win just doesn’t seem feasible. We are so far away from being playoff competitive, and I don’t even mean competing inside the playoffs but just competing to make it in to begin with. Maybe MIN and CLE turn out to be laughing stocks….whatever, I still think it is reasonable to at least organically establish yourself as a playoff team before dumping all the chips in.

Next years draft is about more than Flagg. Get a top 5 pick and you have a pretty good chance at a home run.

 

[KqWIN]

Next years draft is about more than Flagg. Get a top 5 pick and you have a pretty good chance at a home run.

Point is the same, bottoming out is significantly worse than it was before. Having Lauri with home run is better than home run without Lauri….so you might be better off with the lower odds because you definitely need more than one home run and Lauri is a 100%.

And I’m not sure I really buy into there being 5 easily identifiable home runs in any draft.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Point is the same, bottoming out is significantly worse than it was before. Having Lauri with home run is better than home run without Lauri….so you might be better off with the lower odds because you definitely need more than one home run and Lauri is a 100%.

And I’m not sure I really buy into there being 5 easily identifiable home runs in any draft.

Well it’s more than just Flagg next year. So it’s not like we need just one result… that’s what I’m saying. Lower odds make it possible to avoid being a full joke like Philly was back in the day and still maximize your shot at a top 4 pick… or get close to it. With Lauri you will risk having to do the dance to get to 8/9 or losing the pick. I get that being the worst team isn’t as profitable… but being 3,4,5 worst is a solid proposition still.

 

[LogGrad98]

From Ben Anderson: So the Jazz's 5-25 finish to the season was designed to leap both Brooklyn and Atlanta in the lottery rankings, only to see both Brooklyn and Atlanta jump them into the top four.

smd.

Yep. The big franchises jumped the little one. Imagine that. Shocker.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

Well if we won more games maybe we win the lottery like the two teams above us, who won more games.

Ya sure, if I had been able to look into the future I would’ve rooted for two more wins.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

Knowing the Jazz, they'll convey next year and give OKC another cornerstone player and all it cost us was them taking Favors off our hands.

No

 

[KqWIN]

Well it’s more than just Flagg next year. So it’s not like we need just one result… that’s what I’m saying. Lower odds make it possible to avoid being a full joke like Philly was back in the day and still maximize your shot at a top 4 pick… or get close to it. With Lauri you will risk having to do the dance to get to 8/9 or losing the pick. I get that being the worst team isn’t as profitable… but being 3,4,5 worst is a solid proposition still.

I just mentioned Flagg because he considered a sure thing, generational type prospect. There are not 5 guys like that. Flagg is different so we should talk about the likelihood of getting that guy is who is different.

And you still have odds to get those other guys. Like I said, the point is the same. No matter how you slice it the benefit of bottoming out is significantly worse than it was and you have to account for that.

The protected pick dance is such a small consideration when talking about moving a 100% star player like Lauri. Like im not trading Lauri because of the outside chance I might lose a pick between 11-14. By trading Lauri you lose your chance to pair your potential home run….that is the hypothetical consideration that’s going to carry the weight.


I’m only trading Lauri if I actually believe it’s going to increase my chances of having a 2-3+ star team. Given that Lauri is 100% one of those guys and bottoming out is so much worse, it’s a tough decision.

But like I said earlier, going forward and trying to win just isn’t an option right now. It’s tank with Lauri or tank without him.

 

[The Midnight]

On the plus side though this might be the easiest your to trade up in a draft.

Do your thing Ainge.

 

[infection]

Next years draft is about more than Flagg. Get a top 5 pick and you have a pretty good chance at a home run.

Chance at a home run but ending up grounding to third for a 5-4-3 double play to retire the side. Ainge hangs it up, realizing he’d rather be on the golf course.

You know it to be true.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I just mentioned Flagg because he considered a sure thing, generational type prospect. There are not 5 guys like that. Flagg is different so we should talk about the likelihood of getting that guy is who is different.

And you still have odds to get those other guys. Like I said, the point is the same. No matter how you slice it the benefit of bottoming out is significantly worse than it was and you have to account for that.

The protected pick dance is such a small consideration when talking about moving a 100% star player like Lauri. Like im not trading Lauri because of the outside chance I might lose a pick between 11-14. By trading Lauri you lose your chance to pair your potential home run….that is the hypothetical consideration that’s going to carry the weight.


I’m only trading Lauri if I actually believe it’s going to increase my chances of having a 2-3+ star team. Given that Lauri is 100% one of those guys and bottoming out is so much worse, it’s a tough decision.

But like I said earlier, going forward and trying to win just isn’t an option right now. It’s tank with Lauri or tank without him.

The protected pick is huge. That’s our at bat to hit a home run to go with Lauri. I get in 2025 we have two other picks but those are like 60-70% chance to be 17-30 type picks. The 10-14 range has been really fruitful.

Flagg is awesome but some see Ace Bailey as a better prospect. The next 3-4 guys I think are a tier below those two for now but all would be the best pick in this draft. 2026 is another banger.

Keeping Lauri and hoping to pair him with a guy drafted in 2025… let’s say the 2025 dude is a star and takes a year to get there. So Lauri is 29 and making his first playoff run? Just seems like a short window where those two would be “stars”.

Just think our chance to line up two stars in similar windows is to trade one and give yourself a legit shot at a couple top 5 picks. The silver and bronze medals the next couple years are pretty nice.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Chance at a home run but ending up grounding to third for a 5-4-3 double play to retire the side. Ainge hangs it up, realizing he’d rather be on the golf course.

You know it to be true.

Is that bad? You don’t seem like an Ainge fan.

 

[KqWIN]

The protected pick is huge. That’s our at bat to hit a home run to go with Lauri. I get in 2025 we have two other picks but those are like 60-70% chance to be 17-30 type picks. The 10-14 range has been really fruitful.

Flagg is awesome but some see Ace Bailey as a better prospect. The next 3-4 guys I think are a tier below those two for now but all would be the best pick in this draft. 2026 is another banger.

Keeping Lauri and hoping to pair him with a guy drafted in 2025… let’s say the 2025 dude is a star and takes a year to get there. So Lauri is 29 and making his first playoff run? Just seems like a short window where those two would be “stars”.

Just think our chance to line up two stars in similar windows is to trade one and give yourself a legit shot at a couple top 5 picks. The silver and bronze medals the next couple years are pretty nice.

There is a zero chance I’m deciding Lauri’s future on the basis of potentially losing 10-14. Like we just secured it twice in a row with him and now the team is wayyy worse. I’m not thinking about that.

I definitely don’t think Lauri is too old to play with potential home run. But the thing about keeping Lauri is you can always trade him. That’s why I’ve always said that having the star is the power position. You can always trade them. You cannot always trade for one, and there’s definitely no guarantee you draft one.