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Lottery Standings

haha, PKM.

northeast, it's obviously you didn't even read my post at all. especially because i already answered that question in the first paragraph of my post (the very paragraph you thought i screwed up in).

anyway, i said i was going with a 33% chance the Ws beat the spurs.
 
nah I read it, but 33% seems grossly off.
The 90% sounds off too, just a hunch, I'm going out on a limb on that one, but I think you were making up a bad number on that one too.
 
northeast said:
nah I read it, but 33% seems grossly off.
The 90% sounds off too, just a hunch, I'm going out on a limb on that one, but I think you were making up a bad number on that one too.
Click to expand...

33% is a ballpark, sure, but i don't think it's way off.

the 90% is a mathematical reality. the team with the 8th worst record going into lottery day has exactly a 10% chance of moving up into the top 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery
 
(disclaimer: numbers change a little if they're 8th by virtue of a coin toss, but the change is fairly small and works in our favor, so i didn't factor that in. it's the difference between 90% and 90.8% or something like that.)
 
theNBAnerd said:
(disclaimer: numbers change a little if they're 8th by virtue of a coin toss, but the change is fairly small and works in our favor, so i didn't factor that in. it's the difference between 90% and 90.8% or something like that.)
Click to expand...

So you admit your nerd post was flawed, then?
 
PKM said:
So you admit your nerd post was flawed, then?
Click to expand...

meh. i recognized as i was typing it that the odds in wiki change somewhat if instead of the 6-7-8 teams having 63, 43 and 28 ping pong ball combinations, respectively, they all had 44... i just decided that the difference was minute once you factored it in, so the essence of the equation wasn't going to change substantially.
 
wikipedia does indeed support the 90%. Curses.

I'd peg the chances of the Spurs losing the last game around 10%, unless Stern somehow gets involved beforehand.
 
theNBAnerd said:
meh. i recognized as i was typing it that the odds in wiki change somewhat if instead of the 6-7-8 teams having 63, 43 and 28 ping pong ball combinations, respectively, they all had 44... i just decided that the difference was minute once you factored it in, so the essence of the equation wasn't going to change substantially.
Click to expand...

was said in humor .. totally.
 
Regardless of whether it's exact or not, a 2/3 chance is decent. Gotta hope that the Warrior's karma ****s them over after that tank job last night.

It would be incredible to add a top 10 pick to this team.
 
northeast said:
wikipedia does indeed support the 90%.

I'd peg the chances of the Spurs losing the last game around 10%.
Click to expand...

well then redo all my math from the original post and plug in 10%. i think that's low for a variety of reasons (spurs resting, Ws playing final home game, players appeared to care in the last 3 games, etc.), but obviously that piece and the cleveland piece are the two areas where subjectivity can change the equation.

anyway, if we use 10% then the new calculation becomes:

.10 x .90 [GSW wins, doesn't move up in lotto]
+ .90 x .667 x .333 x .90 [GSW loses, stays 8th in 3-way tb, doesn't move up in lotto]
+ .90 x .833 x .5 x .90 [GSW loses, stays 8th in 2-way tb, doesn't move up in lotto]
+ .001 + .012 + .093 [the three scenarios where GSW gets to 6th or 7th but gets leapfrogged back to 8th or worse]

= 56.2%
 
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