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Spurs just signed Derrick Byars from the D-League for the rest of the season. Looks like it's going to be a D-League showcase for the Warriors/Spurs game.
 
Bulls are beating the Pacers in Indiana. Doesn't look like they're slacking although they've locked in the #1 seed in the East. They may want the #1 record overall.
I only mention all this because I want them to beat the Cavs this week.

Edit: Washington seems to be beating The Cavs. This could put that issue to rest.
 
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Wizards are putting Cavs away. Looks like the new worst case (and most likely) is simply a two way tie for the 8th worst record.


Also, Morris Almond has an assist.
 
Looks like they're holding on for the win. Worst that can happen now is that they tie. Locke reported that the Spurs are resting their big three, so they have a better chance than otherwise.
 
Cyrone Torbin said:
Wizards are putting Cavs away. Looks like the new worst case (and most likely) is simply a two way tie for the 8th worst record.


Also, Morris Almond has an assist.
Click to expand...

Oh my, did hell freeze over? What happened...did the ball squirt out of Morris' hands and the stats guy just thought it was a pass?
 
theNBAnerd said:
to figure it out, we have to make some assumptions about how likely GS and cleveland are to win their remaining games, and then calculate separately the odds of the four different scenarios that result in us getting the pick:
1) GSW winning the spurs game, then not winning the lotto
2) GSW losing the spurs game, 3-way tie results in GSW 8th, then not winning the lotto
3) GSW losing the spurs game, 2-way tie results in GSW 8th, then not winning the lotto
4) GSW losing the spurs game, getting to 6th or 7th, but then getting bumped backward (which actually is comprised of three scenarios)

1) let's say they have a 1/3 chance of winning the spurs game... which in terms of accuscore predictions or vegas odds represents a pretty big underdog situation. i think that's fair. the spurs WILL be resting guys, but it's not like they'll be trying to lose. they still have homecourt in the finals to contend for. if they win, they're 8th worst with a 90% chance of staying 8-10 and not winning a top three pick. so far we're at a 30% chance of this scenario happening (.33 x .90).

2) add to that 30% odds the odds of them getting the pick with a loss, which we're saying there is a .667 chance of. to figure this we have to break it into two scenarios: GSW loses and winds up in a 3-way tie, GSW loses and winds up in a 2-way tie. so we need estimate the chances of cleveland winning out. we're talking about a .328 team who plays a home game against an inferior-but-streaking team, and then a road game against a far-superior-but-possibly-resting team. so let's say their record dictates the odds and give them a 1 in 3 chance at each game, or a .167 chance of winning both. so now there's a 66.7% chance they lose, coupled with the 16.7% chance that cleveland wins out for a 3-way tiebreaker to have a 33% chance of 8th worst where they'd have a 90% chance of keeping the pick. so this path represents an extra 3.3% (.667 x .167 x .33 x .90) chance on top of our original 30%... up to a 33.3% chance.

3) another scenario that lands us the pick is a golden state loss coupled with cleveland NOT winning out. if we assume (as we did in the last paragraphs) that GSW has a 66% chance of losing and cleveland has an 83% chance of losing at least once, then you're looking at that percentage multiplied by the resulting 50/50 coin toss with the winner of Tor/NJ, and again multiplied by the 90% chance that they don't move up from eighth. .667 x .833 x .5 x .9 = .250, so now we're up to a 58.3% chance.

4) finally, we have to account for everything going wrong and GS getting to 7th or 6th worst, but still getting bumped backward to eight or worse in the lotto. for this scenario to play out it's either:
- GS losing (.667), cleveland winning out (.167), GS wins 6 in a 3-way tiebreaker (.333) but then gets leapfrogged by two teams in the lotto (~.040). multiply all that together for a .001 chance
- GS losing (.667), cleveland winning out (.167), GS wins 7 in a 3-way tiebreaker (.333) but then gets leapfrogged by one or more team in the lotto (~.25). multiply all that together for a .009 chance.
- GS losing (.667), cleveland losing at least one (.833), GS wins 7 in a 2-way tiebreaker (.5) but then gets leapfrogged by one team in the lotto (~.25). multiply all that together for a .069 chance.
- total likelihood of GS getting to 6 or 7 but getting bumped backwards: 7.9%. our previous 58.3 plus this 7.9 means our total likelihood is 66.2%.

obviously the math changes as soon as cleveland wins/loses a game, or if we want to adjust the mathematical likelihood of GSW winning. but that's the methodology, and it says that a 2 in 3 chance is actually pretty close.
Click to expand...

updated odds now that cleveland catching GSW is ruled out.

1) GSW winning the spurs game (.333), then not winning the lotto (.9) - 27.9%
2) GSW losing the spurs game (.667), 3-way tie results in GSW 8th (.0), then not winning the lotto (.9) - can't happen now 0%
3) GSW losing the spurs game (.667), 2-way tie results in GSW 8th (.5), then not winning the lotto (.9) - 30.2%
4) GSW losing the spurs game, getting to 6th or 7th, but then getting bumped backward (which actually is comprised of three scenarios)
----a) GSW losing (.667), cleveland winning out (.0), GS wins 6 in 3-way tiebreaker... can't happen
----b) GSW losing (.667), cleveland winning out (.0), GS wins 7 in 3-way tiebreaker... can't happen
----c) GSW losing (.667), cleveland losing at least one (100%), GS wins 7 in a 2-way tiebreaker (.5) but then gets leapfrogged by at least one team in the lotto (~.25) - 8.4%

so that's now a 68.225% chance that we get the pick, with the only objective thing left in that equation being the odds of GSW winning. i'm going with .333/.667, but if you think that's high or low, just plug your percentages in and re-run the math.

fwiw, spurs just signed two d-league scrubs so they can leave everybody that matters at home tomorrow. having said that, i still think .333/.667 is fair since we're talking about a team that has played .200 ball over the last 5-6 weeks and their coach appears to be blatantly leaving his best players on the bench late.
 
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