the more i look at options, assets, contracts, etc... the more i realize we have all been underestimating the weight of the paul question in figuring out our future.
don't extend paul and the jazz have massive cap space in 2013 and an opportunity to clear the decks. they'll have two draft picks and an opportunity to sign 2-3 first or second tier free agents. they can wait to decide on al jefferson's situation, and they don't need to use the TPE because they won't want to take back long-term commitments (unless they can use it to absorb a tax-paying team's expiring contract in exchange for compensation).
extend paul and the jazz could still have decent cap space in 2013, but the window gets smaller for shaping the future team. the memo TPE, the 2012 draft and the al question become increasingly important to leverage correctly.
fwiw, i think paul is a starter and could be a long-term option for the jazz, but obviously that just clears the cupboard a little more in terms of 2013 options. committing to paul now means we have more incentive to put the rest of the team together now: hurrying to make a move on al jefferson, getting into the draft, getting something for the TPE, etc.
either way, paul is something of a lynchpin. and i think a starting lineup of favors/millsap with kanter off the bench is WAAAAAY better than a starting lineup of kanter/favors with some young guy coming off the bench.