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Never Trump

Jonah said:
One day before the election. Can the Never Trump people finally relax? With one notable exception, the best aggregators now put Clinton anywhere from an 85 to 99 percent favorite to win the presidency. If Trump wins it will be the biggest upset in modern presidential history. Much more surprising, for example, than Truman/Dewey way back in 1948.

Still, there is some nagging doubt. Nate Silver of 538, easily the most popular and one of the most accurate of the aggregators, has Clinton at only a 65 percent favorite. Silver’s relatively favorable outlook for Trump has caused considerable controversy and angst amongst Trump detractors. Some even accuse him of a bad faith adjustment to his calculations in order to make the race seem more competitive and thereby increase traffic to his ESPN sponsored website.

In contrast to Silver is Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, which now puts Clinton at a greater than 99 percent win probability. While not nearly as well known or popular, the Princeton Election Consortium has been even more accurate over the last two presidential elections than 538. Wang essentially called the election for Clinton weeks ago.

It’s easy for conformation bias to seep into our search for answers, which is probably why I give more credence to Wang than Silver, but he does have a more academic approach and a much less volatile model over the last few months.

Here is a recent article, in fairly technical detail, on the Princeton model:

https://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/06/is-99-a-reasonable-probability/
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I don't know what these guys are looking at, but I continue to have Trump at 100% in all of my projections.
 
I've voted once in my life (John McCain FTW) and from the time I left my house, walked to the voting booth, voted, and walked back, it took no more than 15 min.

PS: I kept my McCain 08' keychain for several years until one day it just broke and fell off somewhere.
 
I really Like McCain. Was a little disappointed in his late campaign, but I still have tons of respect for him.

The thing that stands out the most is when the woman in his audience said Obama was a Muslim, etc. and McCain corrected her. Nothing like that would happen this time around. Both sides are the devil according to the other side.

Obviously I've gotten caught up in all that. One more day!
 
Gameface said:
The reason the line was long is because this year it's supposed to be all mail-in voting. They have some places where you can vote in-person, but not as many as they would normally have. I've never waited even close to 5 min to vote. This year I didn't wait at all, I mailed in my ballot a couple weeks ago.
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I don't think so, or at least I haven't heard of that. The reason why the line was so long is that there is only one place in all of Orem where you can go to vote early. My regular voting location tomorrow is same place it's always been, a local elementary school. I expect first thing in morning and last thing at night it'll be packed, but I'm planning to go middle of the day.
 
Gameface said:
I really Like McCain. Was a little disappointed in his late campaign, but I still have tons of respect for him.

The thing that stands out the most is when the woman in his audience said Obama was a Muslim, etc. and McCain corrected her. Nothing like that would happen this time around. Both sides are the devil according to the other side.

Obviously I've gotten caught up in all that. One more day!
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I don't think this will calm down until late Wednesday.
 
RJF said:
I don't think this will calm down until late Wednesday.
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I don't think it will calm down at all.

For the record the President did this just the other day I believe. Vet protestor with a R campaign sign. Crowd started hollering at him and the President stepped in. basically said: no, we respect free speech, we respect our vets and our seniors. He is voicing his opinion and support for what he believes. Respect that.

Then the security detail ushered the protestor out.

Kudos Mr. President.
 
colton said:
Aha, his question makes more sense now. There is mail in voting here, but it's not the default. You have to specially request it.
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This is the first time I have got a mail in ballot. It was very nice this year. I got it mailed to me over a week ago. I was able to sit down and research properly everything on it while voting. I am not sure why everywhere doesn't do it the way SLC did it this year.
 
I think there needs to be a standardized way to vote in this country regardless of where you are. Whether it is by mail, internet, polling place, whatever, it shouldn't be different all over the country, state by state and even county by county. That is ludicrous. It just makes it confusing for anyone who may be moving or in a new location or if the laws change in your own area. They say get out and vote and then make it a scavenger hunt to vote. Stupid.
 
As an addendum to an earlier post, here’s an article by Matthew Yglesias on why Nate Silver is underestimating Clinton’s odds of winning. Yglesias is one the more balanced and thoughtful political writers.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/7/13550068/nate-silver-forecast-wrong

BTW, Silver’s projections on Clinton’s chances of winning have been steadily ticking upward throughout the day, starting at 64.5 and now up to 68.5, due to new polling data favorable to Clinton.
 
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